FIRST OF ALL
FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS
2021 – 2022 Horizon
– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –
NVIDIA – Back Today on ATA Research Radar
ATA Continuation of…
2017- 2019
10.06.2017 – NVIDIA – NASDAQ TOWERING INFERNO…
10.11.2018 – NVIDIA – NASDAQ REAL TOWERING INFERNO …
28.07.2019 – NVIDIA – Waiting for Strike…
9.10.2019 – NVIDIA – under Pressure…
2020
8.05.2020 – NVIDIA – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extensions – May 2020…
9.06.2020 – NVIDIA – Bulls Knocking on Market Heavens Door…
26.06.2020 – NVIDIA – Bulls Harder Knocking on Market Heavens Door…
20.07.2020 – NVIDIA – Fighting on Higher Tech Orbit…
5.08.2020 – NVIDIA – Chip Space Horizon…
2021
12.06.2021 – NVIDIA – Into the Chip Space…
with
ATA Following…
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
Apple
10.09.2022 – APPLE – iPhone 14 Launch Event in Ending Diagonals and Fibonacci Shadows…
APPLE/S&P500 Ratio
11.09.2022 – APPLE/S&P500 RATIO – Apple Shining Capitalisation Equivalent to 180 Stocks in Loosing Momentum Risk Shadow…
Microsoft
17.09.2022 – MICROSOFT – from Bear Pattern 2021 to Bear Impact 2022 in Fibonacci Shadow…
Amazon
18.09.2022 – AMAZON – from Bear Warning 2021 to Bear Strike 2022 and Finally Secular Bearish Game Changer Warning …
Tesla
24.09.2022 – TESLA – Split Bullish Motive in Smart Money Game – Bulls Hard Fight above June-July 2022 Low Zone…
ALPHABET ( Google )
25.09.2022 – ALPHABET (GOOGLE) – from Risk of Bull Skyrocket Fly End – 2021 to Bear Hard Impact – 2022…
Meta ( Facebook )
1.10.2022 – Meta – Zuckerberg Gotterdammerung 2022 after Contrarian Warning 2021…
Emerging Market – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario
19.04.2013 – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario…
15.04.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario – 2-nd Anniversary…
8.07.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario RULES…!!!
Polish Stocks
14.11.2015 – POLISH SKYFALL CONTINUUM…
NVIDIA Master Motives
First of All
Nvidia Stock 4-to-1 Split July 20 2021
Nvidia 8th Largest Weight Company in Nasdaq 100 and 14th in S&P500
2022 Global Chips Oversupply
after
2021 Mainstream Panic Global Chips Shortage and Hunting – Strong Global Tech – Chips Demand
Nvidia Earnings Q2/2022 – August 24 2022
Report most Importnat Numbers vs Wall Street Expectations by Bloomberg
Revenue: $6.7 billion versus $6.7 billion expected
Adj. EPS: $0.51 versus $0.53 expected
Data Center: $3.8 billion versus $3.8 billion expected
Gaming: $2.0 billion versus $2.0 billion expected
Nvidia Stocks Action
Quarterly View
after 4-to-1 Split July 20 2021
Activated Ending Diagonal Bearish Pattern
Bull Trap – Upper Edge Key Level 300 USD
Lower Edge Key Level 275 USD
Back inside Secular Bull Channel
ahead of Test
1st Secular Bull Channel Lower Trendline – Key Level 95 USD
2nd 2018 Year Top – Key Level 70-73 USD Zone
with
Global Risk Off Waves Action Acceleration after Reactivation in August 2022
Bond Sell Off Active Cont.
Stocks Sell Off Active Cont.
Wall Street Risk Off Wave Active – Testing June 2022 Lows
specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq
Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact Active for Now
with
Present Bear Wave – Strike Cont. – Test June 2022 Low
on
Extreme Fear and Warnings after Last Euphory Summer Rally
Factors
Fed Rates Hike Cycle
Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact
Investment Conclusion
Wall Street Volatility and RISK OFF – September Fib Ret – Back to May – June Lows Zone
on
Mainstream Bearish Warnings and Projections
in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows
with
LONG TERM MOTIVES
WALL STREET
Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN Stopped with Latest Bear Hard Strike Back
on Friday Triple Witch Day
Nasdaq 100
Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test June 2022 Low 11.000 Zone – Cancel Last Summer Bull Wave
with
Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone
vs
Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bear Hard Strike – Test 11.000 Zone
with
Present Friday Daily Bear Candlestick
DJIA and S&P500
DJIA
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 37.000 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Bear Hard Strike under June 2022 Low 29.500 Zone – Cancel Last Summer Bull Wave
with
Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone
vs
Test – 44.7% Fib Ret 28.500 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bear Hard Strike under 29.000 Zone
with
Present Friday Daily Bear Candlestick
S&P500
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test June 2022 Low 3..600 Zone – Cancel Last Summer Bull Wave
with
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone
vs
Ahead of Test 50% Fib Ret 3.500 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bear Hard Strike under 3.600
with
Present Friday Daily Bear Candlestick
CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC
Fed
Fed More Hawkish still Active – 75bps Rate Hike September Meeting Verdict
Fed Super Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario
after
Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps
Fed June 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994
Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st
ECB
ECB Super Hawkish September Meeting Verdict – 75bps September Hike Rate
Biggest one Meeting Hike in ECB History
ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps
July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation
ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma
Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk
ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War
Energy Crisis
Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis
PBoC
China Central Bank Verbal Intervention
Warning on Speculation against Yuan
PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish
Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
( DXY Futures )
Dollar Index
Bull Long Term Wave Stopped and Cooling Strike – after Latest Acceleration New Higher Overheat Extreme Risk Zone – 20 Years High 115 Zone ( stricte 114.778 )
Long Term Bulls FX Wave Stopped after Latest Acceleration
September Bullish Monthly Candlestick – Large Real Body vs Long Upper Shadow
( confirmed – EOM )
with
Last
Bearish Pattern 2B Activated – Key Level 114.50
Short Term Bear FX Strike from 115 Zone to 111.70
Test Key Level 111.70 – 30% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave
vs
Latest
Bull Strike Back above Key Level 112
still above July/22 Top 109.30
still above
103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top
104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top
ATA Conclusion
Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Dynamic Acceleration after Latest Stopped – Cooling
( July High 109.30 – September High 113 Zone stricte 113.228 )
with
Present USD Domination Stopped and Cooling
Bears FX short term Strike from Higher 115 Zone to 112 Zone
Key Levels 110–110.80 111.80-112 vs 113 – 113.30 Zone in Smart Money FX Game
special focus on
Present Key Levels 110–110.80 111.80-112 vs 113 114.80 – 115
( EOW 112.17 )
First…ATA from 12.06.2021
before Split July 2021
Earlier 800 USD Zone – Now 200 USD Zone
” Now dominating
New Bull Wave above Upper Edge Zone
all time above Trend Channel – Upper Line 450 USD Zone
Rising above New Higher Psychological Key Level 700 USD Zone
in
New Bull Channel
Upper Edge – Key Level 900 USD
Lower Edge – Key Level 550 USD
but with
Test Fib Ext Node 2.% – 2.058% – Key Levels 700 – 720 USD Zone
Open Option
Higher Fib Ext 800 – 900 and 1000 USD Zone ”
and
ATA Central Banks Master Tweet
Second…Present NVIDIA Situation
NVIDIA SECULAR SITUATION
ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION
First of All
New All Time High 350 USD Zone November 2021
( stricte 346.77 )
Quarterly & Monthly View
After
1st Bullish Skyrocket from 30 USD Zone to 350 USD Zone
2018 – 2021 Years Horizon
2nd Test Fib Ext Nodes of Two Main Bulls Waves
4.23% – 4.414% Secular Bulls Wave from Lehman Panic Low 335-348 USD Zone
2% – 2.058% Long Term Bulls Wave from 2018 Year Low 348-355 USD Zone
Finally Activated
Quarterly Bearish Ending Diagonal
Bull Trap – Upper Edge Key Level 300 USD
Break Down – Lower Edge Key Level 275 USD
Bearish Dynamic Trend and Waterfall Pattern
Now still dominating
Bear Destructive Wave
ahead of Test
Quarterly
1st Secular Bull Channel Lower Trendline – Key Level 95 USD
2nd 2018 Year Top – Key Level 70-73 USD Zone
Monthly
Covid Panic Low 115 USD Zone
Fib Ret Node 78.6% – 88.6% – Key Levels 98 – 67 USD Zone
with
Quarterly Q2 Q3 Bear Candlesticks
Monthly September Bear Candlestick
MACD Quarterly Buy Signal vs Near to Active Sell Signal
MACD Monthly Sell Signal
NVIDIA Battlefield
67-70-73 95 – 100 115 vs 130 150 – 180 USD
ATA NVIDIA Investment Conclusion
Now Special Focus on
Present Range
67-70-73 95 – 100 115 vs 130 150 – 180 USD
Fib Ret-s
Research New Classic and Candlestick Patterns Confirm or Cancel
with Next
Meta US Big Tech Nasdaq News
Russia Moves Ukraine War – China – Taiwan
War and Global Economy News
Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts
Wall Street Strikes
Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News
Governments & Central Banks Strikes
and
Most Important Final Smart Money Reaction…
EOM – Now October and EOQ – Q4/2022 – EOY 2022
NVIDIA Quarterly & Monthly Charts
10.06.2017
9.11.2018
26.07.2019 – EOW
9.10.2019 – ( Second Half US Session )
NVIDIA Monthly Charts
7.05.2020 – EOD
NVIDIA Quarterly Charts
8.06.2020 – EOD
25.06.2020 – EOD
17.07.2020 – EOW
4.08.2020 – EOD
NVIDIA Quarterly & Monthly Charts
11.06.2021 – EOW
30.09.2022 – EOM -EOQ
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 