FIRST OF ALL
FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS
2021 – 2022 Horizon
– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –
Credit Suisse – Today on ATA Research Radar
ATA Following …
Lehman Shadow
15.09.2018 – Financial Decade after Lehman Panic…
JP Morgan
5.06.2022 – JP Morgan – Jamie Dimon “Economic Hurricane” Warning…
Credit Suisse Master Motives
Credit Suisse CDS ( Credit Default Swap ) Danger Skyrocket
Credit Suisse Scandals and Missteps
Credit Suisse has been found guilty by Switzerland Federal Criminal Court
of failing to prevent money-laundering in the country first criminal trial
Tuna Bond Fraud
Archegos Capital Management defaulted
Greensill Capital collapsed
Spying Scandal
bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management
Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS
Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio resigned in January
US financial giant State Street Credit Suisse Takeover Talks – Rumours
Credit Suisse Losses Danger Trend
Credit Suisse reported Net Loss for Q1 2022
Net Loss 273 million CHF ( 283.5 million USD ) for the quarter
Credit Suisse Q2 Loss Warning
Cost Cuts Plan
and
War Shock Spark and Peak
Inflation Shock vs Inflation Peak Scenario
Stagflation Risk
Recession Risk
with
SNB Swiss National Bank Rate Hike
Central Banks special Fed Hawkish vs ECB Less Hawkish Scenarios in Smart Money Game
and
Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now
vs
Bulls Fight – Strikes
on
Extreme Fear created by Mainstream
Main Warns Factors
Fed Rates Hike Cycle
Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact
Investment Conclusion
Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF Battle above May – June Lows Zone Continuation
on
Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections
in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows
with
SECULAR MOTIVES
Wall Street
Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped
Nasdaq 100
Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls New Strike Back Continuation > Key Level 11.500 May/22 Low Zone
DJIA S&P500
DJIA
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH 37.000 Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls New Strike Back Continuation > Key Level 30.500 May/22 Low Zone
S&P500
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls New Strike Back Continuation > Key Level 3.800 May/22 Low Zone
CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB
Fed
Fed Super Hawkish
after Last FOMC Minutes and Strong US Job Data even on Inflation Peak Rising Probability
Fed Hawkish Central Path
Fed Fund Futures FOMC Meeting July
Fed Rate Hike 75bps 92.4% Probability
after
Fed June 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994
Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st
Fed Super Hawkish – July 75bps in Play
ECB
ECB Less Hawkish – Rate Hike 25bps July QT – APP Program End July 1
ECB Emergency Meeting – Anti-Fragmentation New Tools Program
ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma
Lagarde Hawkish vs Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk
ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
( DXY Futures )
Dollar Index
Bull Long Term Wave Action vs Overheat Risk
Bulls Dynamic Strike to July 20 Years High 107.80 Zone
vs
Bears Activated Correction from 107.80 – back under 107
2B Pattern 107.25 H4 Intraday and Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern Daily
still above
103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top
104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top
ATA Conclusion
Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 107.78 ) Stopped for Now
with
Present Active Domination
Bear FX short term Correction under 107
Psychological Key Level 107 in Smart Money FX Game
special focus on
Present Key Levels 106.50-80 – 107-107.25 107.80
( EOW 106.89 )
First of All…ATA from 15.09.2018
– Financial Decade after Lehman Panic… –
” ATA Strategic Conclusion
NEXT CRISIS
will be
GLOBAL DEBT ARMAGEDDON…!!! ”
First…ATA from 5.06.2022
– JP Morgan – Jamie Dimon “Economic Hurricane” Warning… –
” JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon “Economic Hurricane” Warning
Two Main Warns Factors
Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Ukraine War Impact on Commodities special on Oil “
and
ATA Credit Suisse and SNB Major Tweets
Second…Present Credit Suisse Situation
CREDIT SUISSE LONG TERM SITUATION
ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION
First of All
Credit Suisse All Time High – April 2007
80 USD Zone
( stricte 79.29 USD )
Quarterly View
Activated
Quarterly Bearish Reversal Candlestick Pattern Shooting Star ( Q2/2007 )
70-80 USD Zone
Quarterly Bearish Reversal Pattern 2B – Key Level 57 USD
Q3 September 2000 – Q1 March 2008
Next
Bear Trend
Secular Bear Trend Channel since 2007 Year Top
Lower Edge Key Levels 4.80-5.00 USD
Upper Edge Key Levels 9.80-10 USD
Now dominating
Bear Dynamic Wave – Target – 4.80-5.00 USD
Quarterly Q2/22 Bear Candlestick – Large Real Body
Quarterly Q2/22 Mega Volume
Quarterly MACD Buy Signal still Active
with
Bear Open Scenario
Future Test Target Lower Edge Support Zone – 4.80-5.00 USD
Monthly View
Activated
Monthly Bearish Patterns
Ending Diagonal – Break Lower Edge – Key Level 64 USD – July 2007
2B – Key Level 59 USD – November 2007
H&S Hybrid Pattern – Break Neckline 52 USD – January 2008 ( Line Chart )
Domination
Bear Trend
Secular Bear Trend Channel since 2007 Year Top
Lower Edge Key Levels 5.00-5.20 USD
Upper Edge Key Levels 10-11 USD
Now dominating
Bear Dynamic Wave – Target – 5.00-5.20 USD
Monthly June Bear Candlestick – Large Real Body
Monthly June Mega Volume
Monthly MACD Sell Signal
with
Bear Open Scenario
Future Test Target Lower Edge Support Zone – 5.00-5.20 USD
ATA Investment Conclusion
on Q2/22 Profit Warning
special focus on
Present Active Key Levels Zone
4.80-5.00-5.20 vs 5.80-6.00-6.50 USD
with
March 2020 Low 6.50 USD Zone ( stricte 6.47 )
of course with
Next Smart Money Move
New
Credit Suisse News
SNB and ECB Fed Verbal Strikes and Verdicts
Swiss Eurozone Stocks and Wall Street Strikes
Swiss Eurozone and Global Macro Economy News
Governments & Central Banks Strikes
and of course
Future Final Smart Money Reaction…
First…EOM – July
Finally…EOQ – Q3 – September
Credit Suisse Quarterly Monthly and Weekly Charts
8.07.2022 – EOW
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 