FIRST OF ALL
FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS
2021 – 2022 Horizon
– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –
APPLE/S&P500 Ratio – Today on ATA Research Radar
ATA Following…
Apple
10.09.2022 – APPLE – iPhone 14 Launch Event in Ending Diagonals and Fibonacci Shadows…
Emerging Market – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario
19.04.2013 – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario…
15.04.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario – 2-nd Anniversary…
8.07.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario RULES…!!!
Polish Stocks
14.11.2015 – POLISH SKYFALL CONTINUUM…
Apple/S&P500 Ratio Main Motives
First of All
Apple Largest Weight Company in Nasdaq 100 and S&P500
Apple Market Capitalisation equivalent to S&P500 180 Stocks
and
Global Risk Off Waves Stopped after Reactivation in August 2022
Bond Sell Off Stopped
Stocks Sell Off Stopped
Wall Street Risk Off Wave Stopped – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq
Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK ON Impact Active for Now
with
Present
Bulls Dynamic Strikes after Test Fib Ret Daily
Activated Bullish Ending Diagonal and Invert 2B Patterns H4 Intraday
on
Present Extreme Fear and Warnings after Last Euphory Summer Rally
Factors
Fed Rates Hike Cycle
Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact
Investment Conclusion
Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON Action from September Fib Ret Zones vs above May – June Lows Zone
on
Mainstream Bearish Warnings and Projections
in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows
with
LONG TERM MOTIVES
WALL STREET
Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN Stopped with Last RISK ON Action Strike Back
Nasdaq 100
Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 11.900-12.000 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 11.000 Zone
vs
Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone
with
Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls Wave Reactivation in 11.900-12.000 Zone
with
Present Bull Strike from 12.000 Zone
DJIA and S&P500
DJIA
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 37.000 Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 31.000 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 29.500-30.000 Zone
vs
Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone
with
Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls Wave Reactivation in 31.000 Zone
with
Present Bull Strike from 31.000 Zone
S&P500
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 61.8% Fib Ret 3.900 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 3..600 Zone
vs
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone
with
Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bulls Wave Reactivation in 3.900 Zone
with
Present Bull Strike from 3.900 Zone
CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC
Fed
Fed More Hawkish Active – 75bps September Meeting Outlook – Fed Powell Hawkish Speech
Fed Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario
vs
Fed Pivot Scenario 2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook Reactivation Canceled for Now
on Fed Powell Hawkish Verbal Strike in Jackson Hole Symposium
after
Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps
Fed June 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994
Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st
ECB
ECB Super Hawkish September Meeting Verdict – 75bps September Hike Rate
Biggest one Meeting Hike in ECB History
ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps
July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation
ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma
Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk
ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War
Energy Crisis
Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis
PBoC
PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish
Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
( DXY Futures )
Dollar Index
Bull Long Term Wave Hard Stopped for Now – New Cooling Strike from Overheat Extreme Risk Zone
Long Term Bulls – Present Bears Strike Back after Last Bulls Dynamic FX Wave
September Bear Shooting Star Candlestick Bearsih Reversal Pattern
with
Last Short Term FX Strikes
Bears Activated Correction from 110.80
Activated Bearish Reversal Patterns
Ending Diagonals and New 2B Pattern 109.30 Daily – H4 Intraday
after
Bulls Latest Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High 110-111 Zone above July/22 Top 109.30
still above
103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top
104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top
ATA Conclusion
Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave New Stopped for Now ( July High 109.30 – September High 110-111 Zone stricte 110.78 )
with
Present Active Domination
Bulls Bear FX short term Fight in 108.30-50 109.30 Zone
Key Levels 108.30-108.50 vs 109.30 vs 110–111 Zone in Smart Money FX Game
special focus on
Present Key Levels 108.30-108.50 vs 109.30 110–111
( EOW 108.97 )
First…Apple S&P500 Ratio Master Tweet
Second…Present Apple/S&P500 Ratio Situation
APPLE/S&P500 RATIO SECULAR SITUATION
ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION
Monthly Perspective
First of All
80s Decade – especially 1983 – 1991
Horizontal Trend – Triple Tops Pattern
90s Decade – especially 1991 – 1997
Bearish Trend – started afer Activated H&S Pattern
2000s Decade and Beyond – especially 2000 – 2012
Bullish Mega Strong Trend
started afer Activated Two Inverted H&S Patterns
1st – 1997 -1998 Years with strong Pullback 2000 Year
2nd – 2002 – 2004 Years
2012 Year – Top of Dynamic Bulls Wave
2010s Decade and Beyond – especially 2012 – 2020
Bear Correction from 2012 Top – 2012 – 2013 Years
Bullish Less Dynamic Trend inside Bullish Channel – 2013 – 2019 Years
Bulls Wave Acceleration – New High – 2019 – 2020 Years
2020s Decade Started – 2020 – 2022
Loosing Bullish Momentum – Ending Diagonal Pattern Bearish Risk
Now still dominating
Loosing Bullish Momentum Process
inside
1st – Ending Diagonal Pattern
2nd – 1.618 – 2.00% Fib Ext Zone
with
September Monthly Bear Candlestick
MACD Monthly Sell Signal – Negative Divergence since January 2021
ATA Investment Conclusion
special focus on and carefully Research
Monthly Ending Diagonal
Research Pattern Classical – Candlestick Confirm or Cancel
Fib Ext Bull Large Wave
with Next
Apple US Big Tech Nasdaq S&P500 Wall Street News
Russia Moves Ukraine War – China – Taiwan
War and Global Economy News
Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts
Wall Street Strikes
Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News
Governments & Central Banks Strikes
and of course
Future Final Smart Money Reaction…
First..EOM – September
APPLE/S&P500 Ratio Monthly Charts
9.09.2022 – EOW
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 