FIRST OF ALL
FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS
2021 – 2022 Horizon
– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –
MICROSOFT – Back Today on ATA Research Radar
ATA Continuation of…
2019
23.04.2019 – MICROSOFT – Secular View beyond Tech Bulls Space Imaginations…
16.07.2019 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Space Flight to Fibonacci Extensions …
7.11.2019 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Hitting Secular Fibonacci Extension…
2020
26.12.2020 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update December 2019…
10.02.2020 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update February 2020…
6.05.2020 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update May 2020…
20.07.2020 – MICROSOFT – MASTERMIND FIBONACCI PLAY…
5.08.2020 – MICROSOFT – TikTok Game…
8.09.2020 – MICROSOFT – Fibonacci in Action…
29.10.2020 – MICROSOFT – No Fibonacci Coincidences …
2021
26.08.2021 – MICROSOFT – Bull Skyrocket inside Bear Pattern…
29.10.2021 – MICROSOFT – Bulls Flight above Market Clouds Ceiling on Cloud Computing Boom…
2022
12.02.2022 – MICROSOFT – Bear vs Bull Hard Fight in Bear Pattern Inception…
ATA Following…
Apple
10.09.2022 – APPLE – iPhone 14 Launch Event in Ending Diagonals and Fibonacci Shadows…
APPLE/S&P500 Ratio
11.09.2022 – APPLE/S&P500 RATIO – Apple Shining Capitalisation Equivalent to 180 Stocks in Loosing Momentum Risk Shadow…
Emerging Market – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario
19.04.2013 – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario…
15.04.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario – 2-nd Anniversary…
8.07.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario RULES…!!!
Polish Stocks
14.11.2015 – POLISH SKYFALL CONTINUUM…
MICROSOFT Main Motives
First of All
Microsoft 2nd Largest Weight Company in Nasdaq 100 and S&P500
Microsoft Earnings Q4/2022 fiscal year – July 26 2022
Report most Importnat Numbers vs Wall Street Expectations by Bloomberg
Revenue: $51.9 billion versus $52.4 billion expected
Earnings per share: $2.23 versus $2.29 expected
Productivity and Business Processes: $14.4 billion versus $16.7 billion expected
Intelligent Cloud: $20.9 billion versus $21.1 billion expected
More Personal Computing: $14.4 billion versus $14.7 billion expected
Microsoft Stocks Action – Bear Hard Wave – Bull Bear Fight
Test Key 50% Fib Ret Bull Wave from Covid Panic Low 2020 Year
with
Global Risk Off Waves Action after Reactivation in August 2022
Bond Sell Off Active vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike
Stocks Sell Off Active vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike
Wall Street Risk Off Wave Active vs vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike
specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq
Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact Active for Now
with
Present
Bulls Daily Dynamic Strikes – Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day
Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern Daily – H4 Intraday
on
Present Extreme Fear and Warnings after Last Euphory Summer Rally
Factors
Fed Rates Hike Cycle
Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact
Investment Conclusion
Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF in September Fib Ret Zones vs above May – June Lows Zone
on
Mainstream Bearish Warnings and Projections
in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows
with
LONG TERM MOTIVES
WALL STREET
Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN Stopped with Latest Bull Bear Hard Fight
on Friday Triple Witch Day
Nasdaq 100
Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 11.900-12.000 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 11.000 Zone
vs
Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone
with
Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bull Bear Hard Fight in 11.900-12.000 Zone
with
Present
Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day
Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern Daily – H4 Intraday
DJIA and S&P500
DJIA
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 37.000 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 78.6% Fib Ret 30.600 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 29.500-30.000 Zone
vs
Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone
with
Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bull Bear Hard Fight in 31.000 Zone
with
Present
Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day
Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern Daily – H4 Intraday
S&P500
Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Active for Now
Fibonacci Constelation
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 3.850 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 3..600 Zone
vs
Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone
with
Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
Finally for Now
Bull Bear Hard Fight in 3.900 Zone
with
Present
Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day
Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern Daily – H4 Intraday
CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC
Fed
Fed More Hawkish still Active – 75bps September Meeting Outlook
Fed Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario
after
Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps
Fed June 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish
Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994
Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st
ECB
ECB Super Hawkish September Meeting Verdict – 75bps September Hike Rate
Biggest one Meeting Hike in ECB History
ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps
July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation
ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma
Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk
ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War
Energy Crisis
Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis
PBoC
PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish
Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
( DXY Futures )
Dollar Index
Bull Long Term Wave Hard still Stopped for Now – New Cooling Strike from Overheat Extreme Risk Zone – 20 Years High 110.80 Zone
Long Term Bulls – Present Bulls Bears Hard Fight after Last Bulls Dynamic FX Wave
September Bear Shooting Star Candlestick Bearsih Reversal Pattern Canceled for Now
( most important September EOM )
with
Latest Short Term Bull Bear FX Strikes above July/22 Top 109.30
after
1st Test Key Level 107.70 – 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave
2nd Bulls Dynamic Strike nad Back above July/22 Top 109.30
still above
103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top
104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top
ATA Conclusion
Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave New Stopped for Now ( July High 109.30 – September High 110-111 Zone stricte 110.78 )
with
Present Active Domination
Bulls Bear FX short term Fight in 109.30 – 110 Zone
Key Levels 109.30 vs 110–111 Zone in Smart Money FX Game
special focus on
Present Key Levels 109.30 vs 110–111
( EOW 109.64 )
First…ATA from 12.02.2022
” Now dominating
Quarterly View
Pattern Inception
Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal in Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal
Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 295 USD Zone
Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 285 USD Zone
Test
Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal
Lower Edge – Key Level 295 USD Zone for Now
Monthly View
After
First…Test Major Target Fibonacci Extension 340 USD Zone ( 5.388% )
Second… Activated Monthly November Hanging Man Bearish Candlestick Pattern
Third…Bear Wave
Now dominating
Break Down for Now
First…Bull Long Term Channel – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD
Second…Master Psychological Key Level 300 USD
Third…5 and 8 Monthly MA
needed Conformation – EOM – February
Ahead of
Test Fib Ret – First Node – 270 – 266 USD Zone ”
Second…Present MICROSOFT Situation
MICROSOFT SECULAR SITUATION
ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION
First of All
All Time High – 350 USD Zone – November 2021
( 349.67 USD )
After
Secular Bull Wave Hard Stopped
Secular Strong Bull Trend Bearish Reversal Process Started
Test Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 350 USD Zone
November 2021
Now dominating
Quarterly View
Bear Wave
after
Activated
Bearish Patterns with Pattern Inception
Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal in Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal
Break Down
Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD Zone
Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 310 USD Zone
Monthly View
After
First…Test Major Target Fibonacci Extension 340 USD Zone ( 5.388% )
Second… Activated Monthly November 2021 Hanging Man Bearish Candlestick Pattern
Third…Bear Wave
with
1st Break Down Bull Long Term Channel – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD
2nd Master Psychological Key Level 300 USD
3rd 5 8 13 Monthly MA
Now dominating
Bear Wave Continuation
vs
Second Test Key Level 240 USD
1st June 2022 Low Zone
2nd Fib Ret 50% Bull Wave from Covid Panic Low
Quarterly Q1 Q2 and Monthly August September Bear Candlesticks
needed Conformation – EOM – September
MACD Quarterly Buy Signal vs Monthly Sell Signal
with
Bearish Open Scenario
Ahead of
Test Fib Ret – Second Node – 220 – 215 USD Zone
Psychological Key Level 200 USD Zone
Microsoft Smart Money Battlefield
200 215-220 240 vs 310- 315 USD
with
Master Psychological Key Level 200 USD
ATA Investment Conclusion
special focus on
Major Key Level 240 USD Zone
Fib Ret – Second Node – 220 – 215 USD Zone
Master Psychological Key Level 200 USD
and
Research Patterns Classical – Candlestick
Fib Ret Master Bull Wave
with Next
Microsoft US Big Tech Nasdaq News
Russia Moves Ukraine War – China – Taiwan
War and Global Economy News
Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts
Wall Street Strikes
Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News
Governments & Central Banks Strikes
and
Final SM Reaction
First…EOM – Now September and Finally…EOQ – Q3/2022
Microsoft Monthly Charts
23.04.2019
16.07.2019
( Starting Phase American Session )
Microsoft Quarterly & Monthly Charts
6.11.2019 – EOD
24.12.2019 – EOD
10.02.2020 ( Second Half US Session )
5.05.2020 – EOD
17.07.2020 – EOW
4.08.2020 – EOD
4.09.2020 – EOD
27.10.2020 – EOD
28.10.2020 – EOD
25.08.2021 – EOD
28.10.2021 – EOD
11.02.2022 – EOW
16.09.2022 – EOW
”
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 