MICROSOFT – from Bear Pattern 2021 to Bear Impact 2022 in Fibonacci Shadow…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

MICROSOFT  –  Back  Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2019

23.04.2019 – MICROSOFT – Secular View beyond Tech Bulls Space Imaginations…

16.07.2019 –  MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Space Flight to Fibonacci Extensions …

7.11.2019 – MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Hitting Secular Fibonacci Extension…

2020

26.12.2020 –  MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update December 2019…

10.02.2020 –  MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update February 2020…

6.05.2020 –  MICROSOFT – Tech Bulls Secular Fibonacci Extension – Update May 2020…

20.07.2020 –  MICROSOFT – MASTERMIND FIBONACCI PLAY…

5.08.2020 – MICROSOFT – TikTok Game…

8.09.2020 – MICROSOFT – Fibonacci in Action…

29.10.2020 – MICROSOFT – No Fibonacci Coincidences …

2021

26.08.2021 – MICROSOFT – Bull Skyrocket inside Bear Pattern…

29.10.2021 – MICROSOFT – Bulls Flight above Market Clouds Ceiling on Cloud Computing Boom…

2022

12.02.2022 – MICROSOFT – Bear vs Bull Hard Fight in Bear Pattern Inception…

ATA Following…

Apple

10.09.2022 – APPLE – iPhone 14 Launch Event in Ending Diagonals and Fibonacci Shadows…

APPLE/S&P500 Ratio

11.09.2022 – APPLE/S&P500 RATIO – Apple Shining Capitalisation Equivalent to 180 Stocks in Loosing Momentum Risk Shadow…

Emerging Market – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario

19.04.2013 – Invert EM 2003-2008 Scenario…

15.04.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario – 2-nd Anniversary…

8.07.2015 – Invert EM 2003-2008 ATA Main Scenario RULES…!!!

Polish Stocks

14.11.2015 – POLISH SKYFALL CONTINUUM…

MICROSOFT Main Motives

First of All

Microsoft 2nd Largest Weight Company in Nasdaq 100 and S&P500

Microsoft Earnings Q4/2022 fiscal year  – July 26 2022

Report most Importnat Numbers vs Wall Street Expectations by Bloomberg

Revenue: $51.9 billion versus $52.4 billion expected

Earnings per share: $2.23 versus $2.29 expected

Productivity and Business Processes: $14.4 billion versus $16.7 billion expected

Intelligent Cloud: $20.9 billion versus $21.1 billion expected

More Personal Computing: $14.4 billion versus $14.7 billion expected

Microsoft Stocks Action – Bear Hard Wave – Bull Bear Fight 

Test Key 50% Fib Ret Bull Wave from Covid Panic Low 2020 Year

with

Global Risk Off Waves Action after Reactivation in August 2022

Bond Sell Off Active vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike

Stocks Sell Off Active vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike

Wall Street Risk Off Wave Active vs vs Friday Triple Witch Day Bull Strike  

specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact Active  for Now

with

Present

Bulls Daily Dynamic Strikes – Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day

Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern  Daily – H4 Intraday

on

Present Extreme Fear and Warnings after Last Euphory Summer Rally 

Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF in September Fib Ret Zones vs above  May – June Lows Zone

on

Mainstream Bearish Warnings  and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

LONG TERM MOTIVES

WALL STREET

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped with Latest Bull Bear Hard Fight

on Friday Triple Witch Day

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Active for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 68.5% Fib Ret 11.900-12.000 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 11.000 Zone

vs

Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone

with

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bull Bear Hard Fight in 11.900-12.000 Zone

with

Present  

Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day

Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern  Daily – H4 Intraday

DJIA and S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Active  for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 78.6% Fib Ret 30.600 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 29.500-30.000 Zone

vs

Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone

with

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bull Bear Hard Fight in 31.000 Zone

with

Present  

Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day

Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern  Daily – H4 Intraday

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Active  for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 68.5% Fib Ret 3.850 Zone Bull Wave from June 2022 Low 3..600 Zone

vs

Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone

with

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bull Bear Hard Fight in 3.900 Zone

with

Present  

Hammer Bullish Reversal Candlestick on Friday Triple Witch Day

Activated Bullish Reversal Invert 2B Pattern  Daily – H4 Intraday

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC 

Fed

Fed More Hawkish still Active – 75bps September Meeting Outlook

Fed Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario

after

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB Super Hawkish September Meeting Verdict – 75bps September Hike Rate

Biggest one Meeting Hike in ECB History

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Energy Crisis

Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis

PBoC

PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish

Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Hard still Stopped for Now – New  Cooling Strike from Overheat Extreme Risk Zone 20 Years High 110.80 Zone

Long Term Bulls  – Present  Bulls Bears Hard Fight   after Last Bulls Dynamic FX Wave

September Bear Shooting Star Candlestick Bearsih Reversal Pattern Canceled for Now

( most important September EOM )

with

Latest  Short Term Bull Bear FX Strikes above July/22 Top 109.30

after

1st Test Key Level 107.70 – 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave

2nd Bulls Dynamic Strike nad Back above July/22 Top 109.30

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave New Stopped for Now ( July High 109.30 – September High 110-111 Zone stricte 110.78 )

with

Present Active Domination

Bulls Bear FX short term Fight in 109.30  – 110 Zone

Key Levels   109.30  vs  110111 Zone in Smart Money FX Game

special focus on

Present Key Levels   109.30  vs   110111

( EOW 109.64 )

First…ATA from  12.02.2022

” Now dominating

Quarterly View 

Pattern Inception

Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal in Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal

Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 295 USD Zone

Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 285 USD Zone

Test

Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal 

Lower Edge – Key Level  295 USD Zone for Now

Monthly View

After

First…Test  Major Target Fibonacci Extension 340 USD Zone ( 5.388% ) 

Second… Activated Monthly November Hanging Man Bearish Candlestick Pattern

Third…Bear Wave

Now dominating

Break Down for Now

First…Bull Long Term Channel – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD 

Second…Master Psychological Key Level  300 USD 

Third…5 and 8 Monthly MA

needed Conformation – EOM – February

Ahead of

Test Fib Ret – First Node – 270 – 266 USD Zone

Second…Present MICROSOFT  Situation 

MICROSOFT  SECULAR SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

First of All

All Time High – 350 USD Zone – November 2021

( 349.67 USD )

After

Secular Bull Wave Hard Stopped

Secular Strong Bull Trend Bearish Reversal Process Started

Test Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 350 USD Zone

November 2021

Now dominating

Quarterly View 

Bear Wave

after

Activated

Bearish Patterns with Pattern Inception

Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal in Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal

Break Down

Smaller Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD Zone

Bigger Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 310 USD Zone

Monthly View

After

First…Test  Major Target Fibonacci Extension 340 USD Zone ( 5.388% ) 

Second… Activated Monthly November 2021 Hanging Man Bearish Candlestick Pattern

Third…Bear Wave

with

1st Break Down Bull Long Term Channel – Lower Edge – Key Level 315 USD 

2nd Master Psychological Key Level  300 USD

3rd 5 8 13 Monthly MA

Now dominating

Bear Wave Continuation

vs

Second Test Key Level 240 USD

1st June 2022 Low Zone

2nd Fib Ret 50% Bull Wave from Covid Panic Low

Quarterly Q1 Q2  and Monthly August September Bear Candlesticks

needed Conformation – EOM – September

MACD Quarterly Buy Signal vs Monthly Sell Signal 

with

Bearish Open Scenario

Ahead of

Test Fib Ret – Second Node – 220 – 215 USD Zone

Psychological Key Level 200 USD Zone

Microsoft Smart Money Battlefield  

200 215-220 240    vs    310- 315   USD 

with

Master Psychological Key Level 200 USD 

ATA Investment Conclusion

special focus on

Major Key Level 240 USD Zone

Fib Ret – Second Node – 220 – 215 USD Zone

Master Psychological Key Level 200 USD

and

Research Patterns  Classical  –  Candlestick 

Fib Ret Master Bull Wave

with Next

Microsoft US Big Tech Nasdaq News   

Russia Moves  Ukraine War –  China – Taiwan

War  and  Global Economy News

Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and

FinaSM Reaction

First…EOM – Now September   and  Finally…EOQ – Q3/2022

Microsoft  Monthly  Charts

23.04.2019 

MSFT - M
MSFT - M - Focus 1
MSFT - M - Focus 2

16.07.2019 

( Starting Phase American Session )

MSFT - M
MSFT - M - Focus 1
MSFT - M - Focus 2

Microsoft  Quarterly & Monthly  Charts

6.11.2019 – EOD 

MSFT -Q
MSFT - M - Focus 1
MSFT - M - Focus 2

24.12.2019 – EOD 

MSFT -Q
MSFT - M - FIB EXT - Focus

10.02.2020  ( Second Half US Session ) 

Microsoft - Q - Pattern Inception
Microsoft - M - FIB EXT - Focus

5.05.2020  –  EOD 

Microsoft - Q - Pattern Inception
Microsoft - M - FIB EXT png
Microsoft - M - FIB EXT - Focus

17.07.2020 – EOW 

Microsoft - Q - Pattern Inception
Microsoft - M - FIB EXT - Focus

4.08.2020 – EOD 

MSFT -Q
MSFT - M - FIB EXT - Focus

4.09.2020 – EOD

27.10.2020 – EOD

28.10.2020 – EOD

25.08.2021 – EOD

28.10.2021 – EOD

11.02.2022 – EOW

16.09.2022 – EOW

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