GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

GOLD Spot  – Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2020

9.04.2020 – GOLD Spot – Secular Golden Fibonacci Constellation …

6.07.2020 –  GOLD Spot – Golden Final Countdown…

12.08.2020 – GOLD Spot – Golden Ambush Rising Risk…

2021

31.05.2021 – GOLD Spot – Fibonacci Golden Constellation…

2022

19.02.2022 – GOLD Spot – Russia and Inflation Sparks in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Dark…

ATA Following…

GOLDEN SPECTRUM

2020

7.04.2020 – GOLD – GOLDEN SECULAR SPECTRUM …

Gold/Bitcoin Ratio

2022

19.06.2022 – GOLD/BITCOIN RATIO – from Golden Bullish Reversal to Bulls Wave…

Copper/Gold Ratio 

2022

18.06.2022 – COPPER/GOLD RATIO – from Bearish Reversal to Bear Wave in Stagflation Fear Mainstream Flashes…

GOLD Spot  Major Motives

Golden Major Sparks : Russia  Inflation Dust Down in USD Global Strength Shadow

Last 5 Months Golden Horizon

Gold Peak 2070 USD Zone – March 2022

5 Months after Russia and Inflation Spark – Perfect Test Fib Ret Zone 2070 USD – March 2022

Target 2070 USD Zone showed ex ante by ATA May 31 2021

Gold Dynamic Bear Wave against All Golden Odds

Bearish Impact from 2070 USD Zone March 2022 to 1680-1700 USD Zone July 2022

5 Months non stop Panic & Warnings creating by Mainstream

5 Months non stop Gold “Panic Buying” creating by Golden “Talking Heads” and Golden Prestidigitators

with

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu

Main CENTRAL BANKS -Biggest ever Black Swans

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

Global Debt Rising

vs

Goldman Golden Omen

Goldman Sachs Gold Bullish Outlook 2022

Goldman Sachs Long on Gold – Targets 2150 USD and 2500 USD

and

Global Risk Off Waves stopped in June 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

with

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped vs still above Key Level 11.500  May/22 Low Zone

Latest Bear Strike Back < 12.500 after Shot Up – Shot Down > Higher Psychological Key Level 12.500

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped vs still above Key Level  30.500  May/22 Low Zone

Latest Bear Strike Back < 32.000 after Shot Up – Shot Down > Higher Psychological Key Level 32.000

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped vs still above Key Level  3.800  May/22 Low Zone

Latest Bear Strike Back < 4.000 after Shot Up – Shot Down > Higher Psychological Key Level 4.000

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Fed Hawkish Central Path non stop Active – 75bps 80.5% High Probability

after Last July

Fed Hike Rate Hard Fight – Mega Hawkish vs Super Hawkish on July Meeting

100bps vs 75bps

Fed Fund Futures FOMC Meeting July

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 77.4% Probability – 14.07.2022

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 46.4% Probability – 15.07.2022 – Start the Day

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 29.1% Probability – 15.07.2022 – EOD

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 19.5% Probability – 22.07.2022

after June

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Political Crisis – Draghi Resignation

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Stopped  from Overheat Extreme Risk to Activated Strike

after

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

vs

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Test Lower 106 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  still Stopped for Now

with

Present Active Domination

Bear FX short term Correction with Latest Test Lower 106 Zone

Psychological Key Level 106 Zone in Smart Money FX Game

( Fib Ret Last Two Bull Waves from 103.70 Zone and 101.30 Zone )

special focus on

Present Key Levels  106-106.50  –  107-107.50

( EOW 106.54 )

First…ATA from  19.02.2022

Present GOLD Spot  Battlefield 

1680 1800   vs  1900 2000-2070

ATA  Investment  Conclusion 

Now  Special Focus on

Active Golden Range 

1680 1800   vs  1900 2000-2070

with

Present Psychological Key Level 1900 USD

Master Golden Key Level 2000 USD

Higher Fib Ext…First…2075 USD

of course with

US DOLLAR – DXY Strikes – Present Major Key Level 96

EUR/USD Present Major Psychological Key Level 1.13

by the Gold  Way

always remember

Gold  –  anti US Dollar  Vector

&

ATA Gold Major Tweets

Second…Present  GOLD Spot  Situation

GOLD SPOT  SECULAR  SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL IN SECULAR ACTION  

First of All

Active Two Bearish Reversal Patterns

First…M – Key Level 2070 USD August 2020 March 2022

Second…2B – Key Level 1900 USD August 2011 April 2022

vs

Active Monthly Bullish Reversal Pattern

– Key Level 1680 USD

( needed EOM confirmation )

After

First Test 2075 USD Zone 61.8% Fib Ext August 2020

Dynamic Shot Down under Psychological Key Level 2000 USD 

August Monthly Bearish Candlestick – Long Upper Shadow 

Activated Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B Key Level 1920 USD 

and

Golden Bear Correction

vs

Activated Golden Bull Reversal Process

after

First and Second Test 38.2 – 44.7% Fib Ret Zones  Key Levels 1675-1680 USD

Bull Pattern W – Key Level 1680 USD March 2021 August 2021

Golden Bulls New Reactivation from 1680 USD Zone

Bull Wave above Higher Psychological Key Levels 1800 1900 and 2000 USD

Second Test 2075 USD Zone 61.8% Fib Ext

Finally

Activated Golden Bear Reversal Process

Bear Pattern M – Key Level 2070 USD August 2020 March 2022

on Russia – Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Panic Extreme

Bear Wave under Lower Psychological Key Levels 2000 1900 1800

3rd Test Lower Support Key Levels 1680-1700 USD Zone

March 2021 August 2021 Lows Zone

38.2% Fib Ret

Now dominating

Bulls Reactivation Bull Strike Back > Psychological Key Level 1700 USD

Activation

Daily Bull Reversal Pattern Inverted 2B – Key Level 1698 USD

Monthly and Weekly Bull Reversal Pattern W – Key Level 1680 USD

( Monthly W needed EOM confirmation )

July Monthly Bear CandlestickLower Shadow

( needed EOM confirmation )

Present

Weekly Bull Candlestick – Lower Shadow

Daily Bull Candlestick – Upper Shadow

MACD Monthly Weekly Sell Signals

MACD Daily Sell Signal vs Close to Active Buy

Present GOLD Spot  Battlefield 

16801700   vs  1800 1900 2000-2070

ATA  Investment  Conclusion 

Now  Special Focus on

Active Golden Range 

16801700   vs  1800 1900 2000-2070

with

Present Psychological Key Level 1700 USD

of course with

US DOLLAR – DXY Strikes – Present Major Key Level 106

EUR/USD Present FX Parity – Major Psychological Key Level 1.00

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

and Next

Gold News

Russia Ukraine War and Inflation

Fed ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – July

by the Gold  Way

always remember

Gold  –  anti US Dollar  Vector

Gold  Spot  Monthly Charts

9.04.2020 – before Start US Session 

GOLD Spot - M - Fib Constellation

6.07.2020 –  First Half Assian Session 

GOLD Spot - M - Fib Constellation

12.08.2020 – Second Half  Assian Session 

GOLD Spot - M - Fib Constellation

31.05.2021 –  before Start European Session 

18.02.2022 – EOW

Gold  Spot  Monthly Weekly Daily Charts

22.07.2022 – EOW

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