EUR/USD – BROKEN F/X DEADLOCK…

EUR/USD  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation chronological

2014 – 2015 – 2017

20.03.2014 – FED & ELLIOTT IMPLICATIONS – EUR/USD…

06.03.2015 – EUR/USD – GIGA PRECISION

08.03.2015 – EUR/USD – 1 YEAR MOVE – March 2014 vs March 2015

18.07.2017 – EURO RUN on DRAGHI MOTIVE – SMART MONEY in ACTION…

01.09.2017 – EUR/USD FIGHTING…

2018

13.01.2018 –  EURO-SOJUZ vs FIBONACCI…

16.01.2018 – EUR/USD – Focus on Stalingrad Pattern…

25.01.2018 – EUR/USD – Dancing with Draghi…

29.01.2018 –  MAIN EUROPEAN DM CURRENCIES AFTER DRAGHI DUST…

26.07.2018 – EUR/USD BIG PICTURE – ECB Motive…

27.07.2018 – EUR/USD – the Day after Dovish Draghi…

28.07.2018 – EUR/USD & GDP FACTOR : US vs FRANCE…

6.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH…

6.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – FIRST ROUND…

7.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – SECOND ROUND…

8.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – THIRD ROUND…

10.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – FINAL ROUND…

12.08.2018 – EUR/USD – TURKISH GAME CHANGER…

19.08.2018 –  EUR/USD vs EURO BANKS TURKISH DEBT VIRUS…

22.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – F/X CANNONBALL…

24.08.2018 – EUR/USD vs POWELL from JACKSON HOLE…

27.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – KIND OF F/X MAGIC…

28.08.2018 – EUR/USD – COT SHORTS vs FIBONACCI…

29.08.2018 – EUR/USD vs US GDP MACRO Factor…

13.09.2018 – EUR/USD vs ECB & DRAGHI…

21.09.2018 –  EUR/USD – Dynamic Strikes Back…

25.09.2018 – EUR/USD vs CENTRAL FACTOR – ECB VERBAL MOTIVE vs FED RATE HIKES…

29.09.2018 – EUR/USD BLACK CLOUDS after FED & ITALY MOTIVES…

7.10.2018 –  EUR/USD – RETURN to F/X EQUATOR…

11.10.2018  –  EUR/USD – ACTIVE DEFENSE of F/X EQUATOR…

25.10.2018  –  EUR/USD under F/X EQUATOR waiting for ECB …

02.11.2018  –  EUR/USD – Against All Odds…Key Pattern Deja Vu…

8.11.2018  –  EUR/USD vs Master F/X Nightmares…from ITALY & ECB to US Election & FED…

19.11.2018 –  EUR/USD – F/X AMBUSH…

2019

19.01.2019 –  EUR/USD – F/X VERDUN…

10.03.2019 –  EUR/USD – Super Mario – Super Dove…

12.05.2019 –  EUR/USD – Fibonacci Retracement 1.12 – “No Pasarán”…

26.05.2019 –  EUR/USD – European Political New Arrangement Risk…

7.06.2019 –  EUR/USD – Missed Opportunities can take Revenge…

18.06.2019 – EUR/USD – F/X FALSE START – after Draghi before FED…

 

 

EUR/USD Latest  Main Motives

Global & US – EU Slowdown  & Recession Risk

4  MAIN CENTRAL TIMES EASING 

FED –  Rate Cut Cycle Scenario on  Horizon 

ECB –  New TLTRO III  with New QE & Rate Cut Draghi Verbal on Horizon 

SNB & BOJ  NIRP Monetary Policy 

with

TRUMP Trade War

US Tariffs  &  China Tariffs 

TRUMP – Powell – FED Monetary Policy Conflict 

TRUMP – CURRENCY WAR 

 

RUSSIA & CHINA Buying Gold 

vs

Global Equities & Bonds Risk 

&

US – IRAN  War of Nerves 

IRAN  War  Risk 

vs

G20 Japan  Osaka Meeting

( June 28 – 29 ) 

TRUMP – XI -“Extended Meeting” with Xi Next Week – G20

with

ITALIAN RISK ON News

Signs EC will hold off on Disciplinary Action over Italy Budget

 

 

by the Present EURO F/X Strike

Never Forget this

CENTRAL VERBAL ABBERATION 

 

ECB & DRAGHI-the Day After

VERBAL ABERRATION

EUROZONE Very Low Probability Of Recession & ECB No Rate Cut

vs

US – Danger of Recession & Voices of 3 or 4 FED Rate Cut

EUR/USD Back to 1.1250 ( 1.1264 )

DXY > 97 (97.03)

GOLD < 1340 (1336)

Importatnt SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/ErdqBL3Icl

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 7, 2019

 

 

EUR/USD Technical View 

Current Broken F/X Deadlock 

( Monthly Chart )

EUR/USD Back above Key Level 1.13

after

Months of F/X VERDUN…

( August  2018   –   June  2019  )

&

Last Pullback to Master Key Level 1.12 

(  Fib Ret 61.8%   – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 ) 

( Monthly Chart )

with

Intraday Shot Down  & Shot Up in Key Level 1.12 Zone

Test Fib Ret 68.5%  1.1184

First Rising Wave before  Last F/X False Start 

( Daily Chart )

 

EUR/USD

First…defended 

Key Level 1.12  ( Italian RISK OFF Low )

Second…dynamic back above

Key Level 1.13  (Turkish RISK OFF Low )

of course

still under 

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

 

EUR/USD Short Term Picture  

April Low : 1.1110

May Low  : 1.1107  & May EOM : 1.1168

June Low so far  : 1.1160 

&

Latest Dynamic Wave Up

after

Strong Defense  Master Key Level 1.12 Zone 

with

Test Fib Ret 68.5%  1.1184

First Rising Wave before  Last F/X False Start 

on

FED Dovish Verbal Motive 

with

Powell  Verbal  Cut Rate Strike 

that’s why

Now dominating

Dynamic EURO Contraction 

after

Break Months of F/X VERDUN…

 

 

First…ATA from  18.06.2019

” Now dominating

F/X FALSE START…

but with

Pullback

to

Present Master Key Level is again 1.12  ( EOD ) “

 

&

ATA Tweets  chronological…

FED & POWELL PLAYER – GLOBAL SHOW…

Prepare for High Volatility on Powell Words

Present Key Levels

DXY 97 ( 96.98 ) Sept Fut

EUR/USD 1.12 ( 1.1208 )

GOLD 1350 ( 1348 ) Aug Fut

Nasdaq 100 Fut 7650 – 7700 ( 7655 ) Sept Fut

Most Important Final SM Reaction-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/iTelB9seWD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED vs US 10Y Yield Strike Direction

Special Focus on Psychological Level 2.00%

Now 2.08%

US Yield shows Perfect How Deep Dovish is really Powell Verbal Strike

remember

Most Important will be Final Smart Money Reaction-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/96PxYFV9W7

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED Verdict

No more "Patient"

Fed Dots 8 Officials see Cuts in 2019 vs 8 on Hold & 1 for Hike

Markets Shots

DXY Down & Up

DXY > 96.50 (96.7 )

EUR/USD < 1.1250 (1.1238)

GOLD > 1350 (1353)

Nasdaq Fut < 7700 (7680)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00 ( 2.0460 )

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/PHmIlvXKJ3

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED – Powell Verbal Strike

DXY Shot Up vs Others Shot Down Intraday

DXY > 96.50 (96.73)

EUR/USD < 1.1250 (1.1233)

GOLD > 1350 (1353)

Nasdaq Fut < 7700 (7668)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.0370)

Important Final SM Reaction – EOD pic.twitter.com/PqHSlDE3aT

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED Powell Conclusion

Rate Cut Dependent On Incoming Data

Rate Cut should be 25bps or 50bps

FED Not Targeting Dollar

DXY 96.60

EUR/USD 1.1248

GOLD 1356

Nasdaq Fut 7671

10Y Yield 2.0370

Focus on Final – First…EOD pic.twitter.com/pWP2MDq9nn

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

ECB Knot Verbal Strike

Emergency Plans in Case Growth doesn’t Pick Up

ATA Conclusion

New European QE Open Scenario

DXY < 96.50 (96.42)

EUR/USD > 1.1250 (1.1264)

GOLD Test 1400 Zone (1382)

Nasdaq Fut > 7700 (7759)

10Y Yield < 2.00% (1.987)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/3wdgowDzSk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

BOJ Verdict & Kuroda Speech

Unchanged Interest & Rates Forward Guidance On Rates

Extremely Low Rates – Spring 2020

Considered Further Easing if Needed

Important USD/JPY January 2019 Extreme – Key Level 107.50 (107.58)

DXY < 96.50 (96.37)

GOLD > 1380 (1386)

Focus EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/cW8QReg1oK

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

ECB Vice President De Guindos Dovish Verbal Strike

Buying Assets Part ECB Toolkit

Rate Cuts Only Possibility for Now

vs

DXY < 96.50 (96.24)

EUR/USD Test 1.13 (1.1290)

GOLD > 1380 (1383)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

DE 10Y Yield < -0.30% (-0.308%)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/rB1rkWqily

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

ITALIAN RISK ON News

Signs EC will hold off on Disciplinary Action over Italy Budget

&

DXY > 96 (96.28)

EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1288)

GOLD > 1380 (1383)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

IT 10Y Yield Test 2.00% Zone (2.025)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/4kpCUEWvbj

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

IRAN- US Geopolitical Risk Off Factor

Iran Shoots Down US Drone

vs

No Dynamic Risk Off Reaction

DXY > 96 (96.18)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1305)

GOLD > 1380 (1384)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

US 10Y Yield Back > 2.00% Zone (2.016)

remember

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/5hKyROibzf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

EU Moscovici Italy Verbal Risk On Strike

Hope See New Elements form Italy

but

No Dynamic Reaction

DXY > 96 (96.16)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1308)

GOLD > 1380 (1385)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7795)

US 10Y Yield Back > 2.00% Zone (2.011)

remember

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/Hs02uT9d60

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

US YIELD SPARK GOES OUT

US 10Y Yield Back > Psychological Key Level 2.00% (2.015%)

Now Waiting for Next FED Euphory Starts

Equity, Currencies & GOLD.

DXY > 96 (96.16)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1307)

GOLD > 1380 (1385)

Nasdaq Fut > 7800 (7801)

Important SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/xk3qtDuFQa

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

RUSH & EUPHORY like SPARK IN THE DARK

That's can be

PERFECT YIELD AMBUSH …!!!

US 10Y Yield Back > Psychological Key Level 2.00% (2.013%)

Now Waiting for Next FED Euphory Starts pic.twitter.com/QKpis8QZPD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

TRUMP Verbal Warning

Iran made a very big mistake!

Dynamic Move on Nasdaq

DXY > 96 (96.17)

EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1300)

GOLD > 1380 (1386)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7768)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.003)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/2pkrynXPAt

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI
June
Eurozone 47.8
German 45.4
French 52.0

No EURO Dynamic Move

EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1303)

DXY > 96 (96.13)

GOLD Back < 1400 (1391)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7728)

US 10Y Yield in 2.00% (2.001)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/jRd7yomTQf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

TRUMP – IRAN

Trump gave Iran a Deadline to Begin Talks

ATA Conclusion

No US Strike for Now…

Dynamic Move on GOLD

DXY > 96 (96.11)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1308)

GOLD < 1400 (1393)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7748)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.032)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/YvlLsHFMdI

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

US Manufacturing PMI June 2019

50.1 (est 50.5; prev 50.5)

USD still under Pressure

DXY Test 96 (96.03)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1328)

GOLD > 1400 (1402)

Nasdaq Fut Back > 7750 (7758)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.032)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/s4eKBwozZ1

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

with

Special…

The Last Temptation of Young Investors

who don't remember

Dot. com Bubble or Lehman

by

Central Banks

Movie Slogan " Bear can not even touch you "

Verbal Signals of " Full Control Economy & Markets "

Centrally Planned Economy – Real Socialismhttps://t.co/EShexB4l7j

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 22, 2019

 

 

Second…Present EUR/USD  Situation 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS…

ATA MARKET MODEL : 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

 

 

First…Main Motives

above in this text…

 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

Current Broken F/X Deadlock 

( Monthly Chart )

EUR/USD Back above Key Level 1.13

after

Months of F/X VERDUN…

( August  2018   –   June  2019  )

&

Last Pullback to Master Key Level 1.12 

(  Fib Ret 61.8%   – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 ) 

( Monthly Chart )

with

Intraday Shot Down  & Shot Up in Key Level 1.12 Zone

Test Fib Ret 68.5%  1.1184

First Rising Wave before  Last F/X False Start 

( Daily Chart )

 

EUR/USD

First…defended 

Key Level 1.12  ( Italian RISK OFF Low )

Second…dynamic back above

Key Level 1.13  (Turkish RISK OFF Low )

of course

still under 

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

 

EUR/USD Short Term Picture  

April Low : 1.1110

May Low  : 1.1107  & May EOM : 1.1168

June Low so far  : 1.1160 

&

Latest Dynamic Wave Up

after

Strong Defense  Master Key Level 1.12 Zone 

with

Test Fib Ret 68.5%  1.1184

First Rising Wave before  Last F/X False Start 

on

FED Dovish Verbal Motive 

with

Powell  Verbal  Cut Rate Strike 

that’s why

Now dominating

Dynamic EURO Contraction 

after

Break Months of F/X VERDUN…

 

 

ATA  EUR/USD Present Investment Conclusion 

Now

Dominating EURO Dynamic Shot Up

with

Testing  FIB RET  Last Wave Down –  Daily & H5 

Present

Daily  &  H5   56.4%  1.1369

so

Special Focus on

FIB Zones

56.4% – 61.8%  ( 1.1369 – 1.1394 )

&

78.6% – 88.6%  ( 1.1472 – 1.1519 )

with

Psychological Key Level 1.14

&

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

of course with

Pattern Research 

& waiting for

Next Central Banks Srikes

US – IRAN  War of Nerves 

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  Maxim 

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s 

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Key Month June

 

 

 

EUR/USD  Monthly , Weekly , Daily  & Intraday  ( H4 & H5 )  Charts :

 

20.03.2014

08.03.2015

18.07.2017

01.09.2017

13.01.2018

16.01.2018

25.01.2018

26.07.2018

27.07.2018

27.07.2018  ( EOD ) 

6.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

6.08.2018 

( before American Trading Session ) 

7.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

8.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

10.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

10.08.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

17.08.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD  & EOW) 

22.08.2018  

(  Start European Session  )

24.08.2018  

(  Middle Time of  European Session  )

 

27.08.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

28.08.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

29.08.2018  

( Before Start of  American F/X Session )

13.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

21.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

25.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

28.09.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

5.10.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

11.10.2018  

(  Start of American Session )

 

25.10.2018  

(  Middle of  European Session  )

2.11.2018  

(  Start  of  American Session  )

8.11.2018  

(  Before American Session  )

19.11.2018  

(  First Phase of American Session  )

18.01.2019  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

8.03.2019  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

10.05.2019 

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

24.05.2019 

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

7.06.2019 

( First Half of American Session ) 

18.06.2019 

( First Phase  of American Session ) 

21.06.2019  ( EOW )