EUR/USD – BROKEN F/X DEADLOCK… – ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH

ECB & DRAGHI-the Day After

VERBAL ABERRATION

EUROZONE Very Low Probability Of Recession & ECB No Rate Cut

vs

US – Danger of Recession & Voices of 3 or 4 FED Rate Cut

EUR/USD Back to 1.1250 ( 1.1264 )

DXY > 97 (97.03)

GOLD < 1340 (1336)

Importatnt SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/ErdqBL3Icl

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 7, 2019

EUR/USD Technical View

Current Broken F/X Deadlock

( Monthly Chart )

EUR/USD Back above Key Level 1.13

after

Months of F/X VERDUN…

( August 2018 – June 2019 )

Last Pullback to Master Key Level 1.12

( Fib Ret 61.8% – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 )

( Monthly Chart )

with

Intraday Shot Down & Shot Up in Key Level 1.12 Zone

Test Fib Ret 68.5% 1.1184

First Rising Wave before Last F/X False Start

( Daily Chart )

EUR/USD

First…defended

Key Level 1.12 ( Italian RISK OFF Low )

Second…dynamic back above

Key Level 1.13 (Turkish RISK OFF Low )

of course

still under

F/X EQUATOR – Key Level 1.15

EUR/USD Short Term Picture

April Low : 1.1110

May Low : 1.1107 & May EOM : 1.1168

June Low so far : 1.1160

Latest Dynamic Wave Up

after

Strong Defense Master Key Level 1.12 Zone

with

Test Fib Ret 68.5% 1.1184

First Rising Wave before Last F/X False Start

FED Dovish Verbal Motive

with

Powell Verbal Cut Rate Strike

that’s why

Now dominating

Dynamic EURO Contraction

after

Break Months of F/X VERDUN…

First…ATA from 18.06.2019

” Now dominating

F/X FALSE START…

but with

Pullback

Present Master Key Level is again 1.12 ( EOD ) “

ATA Tweets chronological…

FED & POWELL PLAYER – GLOBAL SHOW…

Prepare for High Volatility on Powell Words

Present Key Levels

DXY 97 ( 96.98 ) Sept Fut

EUR/USD 1.12 ( 1.1208 )

GOLD 1350 ( 1348 ) Aug Fut

Nasdaq 100 Fut 7650 – 7700 ( 7655 ) Sept Fut

Most Important Final SM Reaction-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/iTelB9seWD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED vs US 10Y Yield Strike Direction

Special Focus on Psychological Level 2.00%

Now 2.08%

US Yield shows Perfect How Deep Dovish is really Powell Verbal Strike

remember

Most Important will be Final Smart Money Reaction-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/96PxYFV9W7

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED Verdict

No more "Patient"

Fed Dots 8 Officials see Cuts in 2019 vs 8 on Hold & 1 for Hike

Markets Shots

DXY Down & Up

DXY > 96.50 (96.7 )

EUR/USD < 1.1250 (1.1238)

GOLD > 1350 (1353)

Nasdaq Fut < 7700 (7680)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00 ( 2.0460 )

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/PHmIlvXKJ3

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED – Powell Verbal Strike

DXY Shot Up vs Others Shot Down Intraday

DXY > 96.50 (96.73)

EUR/USD < 1.1250 (1.1233)

GOLD > 1350 (1353)

Nasdaq Fut < 7700 (7668)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.0370)

Important Final SM Reaction – EOD pic.twitter.com/PqHSlDE3aT

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

FED Powell Conclusion

Rate Cut Dependent On Incoming Data

Rate Cut should be 25bps or 50bps

FED Not Targeting Dollar

DXY 96.60

EUR/USD 1.1248

GOLD 1356

Nasdaq Fut 7671

10Y Yield 2.0370

Focus on Final – First…EOD pic.twitter.com/pWP2MDq9nn

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 19, 2019

ECB Knot Verbal Strike

Emergency Plans in Case Growth doesn’t Pick Up

ATA Conclusion

New European QE Open Scenario

DXY < 96.50 (96.42)

EUR/USD > 1.1250 (1.1264)

GOLD Test 1400 Zone (1382)

Nasdaq Fut > 7700 (7759)

10Y Yield < 2.00% (1.987)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/3wdgowDzSk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

BOJ Verdict & Kuroda Speech

Unchanged Interest & Rates Forward Guidance On Rates

Extremely Low Rates – Spring 2020

Considered Further Easing if Needed

Important USD/JPY January 2019 Extreme – Key Level 107.50 (107.58)

DXY < 96.50 (96.37)

GOLD > 1380 (1386)

Focus EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/cW8QReg1oK

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

ECB Vice President De Guindos Dovish Verbal Strike

Buying Assets Part ECB Toolkit

Rate Cuts Only Possibility for Now

vs

DXY < 96.50 (96.24)

EUR/USD Test 1.13 (1.1290)

GOLD > 1380 (1383)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

DE 10Y Yield < -0.30% (-0.308%)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/rB1rkWqily

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

ITALIAN RISK ON News

Signs EC will hold off on Disciplinary Action over Italy Budget

&

DXY > 96 (96.28)

EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1288)

GOLD > 1380 (1383)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

IT 10Y Yield Test 2.00% Zone (2.025)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/4kpCUEWvbj

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

IRAN- US Geopolitical Risk Off Factor

Iran Shoots Down US Drone

vs

No Dynamic Risk Off Reaction

DXY > 96 (96.18)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1305)

GOLD > 1380 (1384)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7790)

US 10Y Yield Back > 2.00% Zone (2.016)

remember

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/5hKyROibzf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

EU Moscovici Italy Verbal Risk On Strike

Hope See New Elements form Italy

but

No Dynamic Reaction

DXY > 96 (96.16)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1308)

GOLD > 1380 (1385)

Nasdaq Fut Test 7800 (7795)

US 10Y Yield Back > 2.00% Zone (2.011)

remember

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/Hs02uT9d60

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

US YIELD SPARK GOES OUT

US 10Y Yield Back > Psychological Key Level 2.00% (2.015%)

Now Waiting for Next FED Euphory Starts

Equity, Currencies & GOLD.

DXY > 96 (96.16)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1307)

GOLD > 1380 (1385)

Nasdaq Fut > 7800 (7801)

Important SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/xk3qtDuFQa

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

RUSH & EUPHORY like SPARK IN THE DARK

That's can be

PERFECT YIELD AMBUSH …!!!

US 10Y Yield Back > Psychological Key Level 2.00% (2.013%)

Now Waiting for Next FED Euphory Starts pic.twitter.com/QKpis8QZPD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

TRUMP Verbal Warning

Iran made a very big mistake!

Dynamic Move on Nasdaq

DXY > 96 (96.17)

EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1300)

GOLD > 1380 (1386)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7768)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.003)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/2pkrynXPAt

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 20, 2019

EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI
June
Eurozone 47.8
German 45.4
French 52.0

No EURO Dynamic Move

EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1303)

DXY > 96 (96.13)

GOLD Back < 1400 (1391)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7728)

US 10Y Yield in 2.00% (2.001)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/jRd7yomTQf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

TRUMP – IRAN

Trump gave Iran a Deadline to Begin Talks

ATA Conclusion

No US Strike for Now…

Dynamic Move on GOLD

DXY > 96 (96.11)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1308)

GOLD < 1400 (1393)

Nasdaq Fut < 7800 (7748)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.032)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/YvlLsHFMdI

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

US Manufacturing PMI June 2019

50.1 (est 50.5; prev 50.5)

USD still under Pressure

DXY Test 96 (96.03)

EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1328)

GOLD > 1400 (1402)

Nasdaq Fut Back > 7750 (7758)

US 10Y Yield > 2.00% (2.032)

Important Final SM Move-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/s4eKBwozZ1

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 21, 2019

with

Special…

The Last Temptation of Young Investors

who don't remember

Dot. com Bubble or Lehman

by

Central Banks

Movie Slogan " Bear can not even touch you "

Verbal Signals of " Full Control Economy & Markets "

Centrally Planned Economy – Real Socialismhttps://t.co/EShexB4l7j

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 22, 2019

Second…Present EUR/USD Situation

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS…

ATA MARKET MODEL :

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical Pattern…

First…Main Motives

above in this text…

Second…Market Technical Patterns

Current Broken F/X Deadlock

( Monthly Chart )

EUR/USD Back above Key Level 1.13

after

Months of F/X VERDUN…

( August 2018 – June 2019 )

Last Pullback to Master Key Level 1.12

( Fib Ret 61.8% – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 )

( Monthly Chart )

with

Intraday Shot Down & Shot Up in Key Level 1.12 Zone

Test Fib Ret 68.5% 1.1184

First Rising Wave before Last F/X False Start

( Daily Chart )

EUR/USD

First…defended

Key Level 1.12 ( Italian RISK OFF Low )

Second…dynamic back above

Key Level 1.13 (Turkish RISK OFF Low )

of course

still under

F/X EQUATOR – Key Level 1.15

EUR/USD Short Term Picture

April Low : 1.1110

May Low : 1.1107 & May EOM : 1.1168

June Low so far : 1.1160

Latest Dynamic Wave Up

after

Strong Defense Master Key Level 1.12 Zone

with

Test Fib Ret 68.5% 1.1184

First Rising Wave before Last F/X False Start

FED Dovish Verbal Motive

with

Powell Verbal Cut Rate Strike

that’s why

Now dominating

Dynamic EURO Contraction

after

Break Months of F/X VERDUN…

ATA EUR/USD Present Investment Conclusion

Now

Dominating EURO Dynamic Shot Up

with

Testing FIB RET Last Wave Down – Daily & H5

Present

Daily & H5 56.4% 1.1369

Special Focus on

FIB Zones

56.4% – 61.8% ( 1.1369 – 1.1394 )

78.6% – 88.6% ( 1.1472 – 1.1519 )

with

Psychological Key Level 1.14

F/X EQUATOR – Key Level 1.15

of course with

Pattern Research

& waiting for

Next Central Banks Srikes

US – IRAN War of Nerves

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X Maxim

Most Important is Final Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Key Month June

EUR/USD Monthly , Weekly , Daily & Intraday ( H4 & H5 ) Charts :

20.03.2014

08.03.2015

18.07.2017

01.09.2017

13.01.2018

16.01.2018

25.01.2018

26.07.2018

27.07.2018

27.07.2018 ( EOD )

6.08.2018

( before European Trading Session )

6.08.2018

( before American Trading Session )

7.08.2018

( before European Trading Session )

8.08.2018

( before European Trading Session )

10.08.2018

( before European Trading Session )

10.08.2018

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

17.08.2018

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

22.08.2018

( Start European Session )

24.08.2018

( Middle Time of European Session )

27.08.2018

( Start of European Session )

28.08.2018

( Start of European Session )

29.08.2018

( Before Start of American F/X Session )

13.09.2018

( Start of European Session )

21.09.2018

( Start of European Session )

25.09.2018

( Start of European Session )

28.09.2018

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

5.10.2018

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

11.10.2018

( Start of American Session )

25.10.2018

( Middle of European Session )

2.11.2018

( Start of American Session )

8.11.2018

( Before American Session )

19.11.2018

( First Phase of American Session )

18.01.2019

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

8.03.2019

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

10.05.2019

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

24.05.2019

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)

7.06.2019

( First Half of American Session )

18.06.2019

( First Phase of American Session )

21.06.2019 ( EOW )

EUR/USD – BROKEN F/X DEADLOCK…

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