EUR/USD – European Political New Arrangement Risk…

EUR/USD  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation chronological

2014 – 2015 – 2017

20.03.2014 – FED & ELLIOTT IMPLICATIONS – EUR/USD…

06.03.2015 – EUR/USD – GIGA PRECISION

08.03.2015 – EUR/USD – 1 YEAR MOVE – March 2014 vs March 2015

18.07.2017 – EURO RUN on DRAGHI MOTIVE – SMART MONEY in ACTION…

01.09.2017 – EUR/USD FIGHTING…

2018

13.01.2018 –  EURO-SOJUZ vs FIBONACCI…

16.01.2018 – EUR/USD – Focus on Stalingrad Pattern…

25.01.2018 – EUR/USD – Dancing with Draghi…

29.01.2018 –  MAIN EUROPEAN DM CURRENCIES AFTER DRAGHI DUST…

26.07.2018 – EUR/USD BIG PICTURE – ECB Motive…

27.07.2018 – EUR/USD – the Day after Dovish Draghi…

28.07.2018 – EUR/USD & GDP FACTOR : US vs FRANCE…

&

Finally

6.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH…

6.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – FIRST ROUND…

7.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – SECOND ROUND…

8.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – THIRD ROUND…

10.08.2018 – EUR/USD – FINAL CLASH – FINAL ROUND…

with

Last

12.08.2018 – EUR/USD – TURKISH GAME CHANGER…

19.08.2018 –  EUR/USD vs EURO BANKS TURKISH DEBT VIRUS…

22.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – F/X CANNONBALL…

24.08.2018 – EUR/USD vs POWELL from JACKSON HOLE…

27.08.2018 –  EUR/USD – KIND OF F/X MAGIC…

28.08.2018 – EUR/USD – COT SHORTS vs FIBONACCI…

29.08.2018 – EUR/USD vs US GDP MACRO Factor…

13.09.2018 – EUR/USD vs ECB & DRAGHI…

21.09.2018 –  EUR/USD – Dynamic Strikes Back…

25.09.2018 – EUR/USD vs CENTRAL FACTOR – ECB VERBAL MOTIVE vs FED RATE HIKES…

29.09.2018 – EUR/USD BLACK CLOUDS after FED & ITALY MOTIVES…

7.10.2018 –  EUR/USD – RETURN to F/X EQUATOR…

11.10.2018  –  EUR/USD – ACTIVE DEFENSE of F/X EQUATOR…

25.10.2018  –  EUR/USD under F/X EQUATOR waiting for ECB …

02.11.2018  –  EUR/USD – Against All Odds…Key Pattern Deja Vu…

8.11.2018  –  EUR/USD vs Master F/X Nightmares…from ITALY & ECB to US Election & FED…

19.11.2018 –  EUR/USD – F/X AMBUSH…

19.01.2019 –  EUR/USD – F/X VERDUN…

10.03.2019 –  EUR/USD – Super Mario – Super Dove…

12.05.2019 –  EUR/USD – Fibonacci Retracement 1.12 – “No Pasarán”…

 

 

All  Time…from August  2018

EUR/USD  is  still in  Key Range  1.12 –  1.13-1.15 

under 

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

&

Key Level 1.13  (Turkish RISK OFF Low )

vs

above 

Key Level 1.12  ( Italian RISK OFF Low )

 

EUR/USD Last Months  shows   F/X VERDUN…

still

Both Sides of this Forex Battle 

can not break for good  other  Side Resistance

Wave Up – 1.13 & 1.15 

vs

Wave Down 1.12 

 

 

May EUR/USD Fighting is very Dynamic…

Last 2 May Strikes Down Moves

after

Super US GDP  , FED Meeting & FED Minutes No Dovisher

ECB Minutes – New TLTRO

Negative Macro Figures – EUROZONE & special Germany

with

Japanification in Eurozone Scenario

&

TRUMP Trade War

vs

Last 2 May Strikes Up  Moves

after

US Higher Tariffs ON…

Trump Verbal  Risk Off Strikes

EUROZONE Negative Macro Figure

Proof or Selective Reactions

Weaker than expected  US Macro Figures

( US PMI & US Durable Goods Orders )

&

Negative Results

Goldman Sachs cuts Q2 GDP to +1.3% from 1.5%

JP Morgan cuts Q2 GDP to +1% from 2.25%

 

 

EUR/USD 

April Low : 1.1110

May Low so far  : 1.1107 

but

Dynamic Rising Contraction

(  Last 2 Session Thursday & Friday )

Back above Key Level 1.12 

EUR/USD Last Friday EOD – 1.1204

still Active

F/X Master  Key Condition

No EOW & EOM Close under Key Level  1.12 

vs

Break Down Key Level 1.12

will open

F/X  Downside Space for  EUR/USD 

 

always remember

F/X Maxim

Missed Opportunities can take Revenge…!!!

that’s why

EUR/USD Present Short Term Range  is still  1.12 – 1.13 

 

by the EURO & European Parlament Election 

back to

BREXIT POLITICAL MESS SAGA…

24.05.2019 – UK POUND – MAY DAY & MAYDAY…

” BREXIT – EURROZONE Political  Risk Path…

after almost 3 Years after BREXIT Vote  still  dominating BREXIT UNKNOWN ABBYS…

so

Imagine what can be happend in EUROZONE after European Parlament Election…!!! “

 

 

 

First…

ATA from  12.05.2019

” All  Time…from August  2018

Against All Odds…

Italy , France & EUROZONE 

with 

Last ECB Mario – Super Dovish – New TLTRO III

EUR/USD  

is  still  above

Key Level 1.12 Zone 

(  Fib Ret 61.8%   – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 ) 

so

In the end decides…

Result of the Test 

of

This Last  Support Zone Key Level  1.12  “

 

&

ATA Tweets  ex ante & chronological…

US Higher Tariffs ON…

from News to Facts

&

Shanghai Composite Index Dynamic Shot Up 2.80% (2930)

USD/CNY Shot Down -0.35% (6.8019)

Nasdaq 100 Fut at "0" (7590)

DXY in 97 (97.18) -Jun Fut

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1225)

GOLD >1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/6DeYxYF73D

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

France Industrial Production

March

Y/Y -0.9% (est -0.1%, prev 0.5%)

M/M -0.9% (est -0.5%, prev 0.1%)

but

EURO Shot Down & Shot Up

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1227)

DXY in 97 (97.16) -Jun Fut

GOLD >1280 (1284)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/FhIDCaiPWr

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Italy Industrial Production

March

Y/Y -1.4% (est -0.8%, prev 0.9%)

M/M -0.9% (est -0.8%, prev 0.8%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1223)

DXY in 97 (97.18) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/P9Nsa5Cgyo

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Italy Retail Sales

March
Y/Y -3.3% (est 1.0%, prev 0.9%)
M/M -0.3% (est 0.1%, prev 0.1%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1231)

DXY in 97 (97.13) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/xsA8UdND0v

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

LE PEN'S PARTY TOPS FRENCH EU VOTE POLL

Main Present Political Risk for EURO

EUR/USD – Master Key Level 1.12 ( 1.1230 )

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/ejYmKbmD0k

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 13, 2019

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Verbal Move

U.S.-CHINA TRADE TALKS STILL ON GOING

Trying Stop Wall Street Free Fall

Nasdaq 100 Fut in 7350 (7353)

USD/JPY < 109.50 (109.28)

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1230)

GOLD in 1300 (1300)

vs

DXY > 97 (97.10)

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/S8OPJZpXKh

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 13, 2019

US – CHINA TRADE WAR

After US & CHINA Strikes

Nasdaq 100 Fut (H4)
Tests Fib Ret 61.8% 7299 (Low 7291) Last Wave Up from March Low 2019
&
Starts Intraday Rising Correction (7359)

USD/JPY
Back > 109.50 from Low 109 (109.61)

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1238)

Focus US-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/ZudLA9Im82

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 14, 2019

Premier Salvini Verbal Strike

Italy will break the 3% Budget Deficit
&
Debt-to-GDP go Higher if needed

It 10Y B Yield 2.748

No EURO Falls – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1213)

DXY in 97 (97.27) -Jun Fut

GOLD Test 1300 (1299)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/FDOdB3xQsn

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

EUROZONE & GERMAN GDP

Q1 Y/Y 2019

Eurozone GDP 1.2% (est 1.2%, prev 1.2%)

German GDP 0.6% (est 0.70% ; prev 0.90%)

but

No EURO Dynamic Move – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1213)

DXY > 97 (97.25) -Jun Fut

GOLD in 1300 (1299)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/uSJDEVEZzy

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

Global Risk Off Wave Strikes Back…

after EUROZONE & US Macro…

Nasdaq Fut Falls after Intraday M in 7450 Zone (7375)

USD/JPY Back < 109.50 (109.30)

EUR/USD Back < 1.12 (1.1183)

DXY Tests 97.50 (97.48)

GOLD still Tests 1300 (1298)

Focus US Session-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/E05GOyhTTe

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

TRUMP Next Verbal Strike by Bloomberg

Plan Delaying Tariffs On Auto Imports…!!!

Dynamic Risk On Wave

Nasdaq 100 Back > 7400 (7470)

USD/JPY Back to 109.50 (109.50)

EUR/USD Back > 1.12 (1.1213)

DXY Down from 97.50 (97.33)

GOLD Down from 1300 (1297)

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/rCV1rdidDU

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

Risk On vs Risk Off Fighting

Nasdaq 100 Fut Back < 7600 from 7650 Zone (7566)

USD/JPY Back to 109.50 Zone from 110 (109.65)

EUR/USD < 1.12 (1.1173)

DXY > 97.50 (97.65)

GOLD in 1285 (1286)

Most Important F SM Reaction
&
TT(Trump Tweets)

Focus All Fib Ret

H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/a1QbLyQt10

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 17, 2019

Markets waiting for Central Banks Trump Verbal Strikes
&
FED Minutes

Key Levels

Nasdaq 100 Fut 7500 (7508)

OIL 63-65 (63.25)

EUR/USD 1.1150-1.12 (1.1160)

GBP/USD 1.27 -1.28 (1.2750)

USD/JPY 110 (110.05)

DXY 97.50-98 (97.80)

GOLD 1265-1285 (1274)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/eVLVBhz8KF

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 20, 2019

New Italian PM Salvini EURO Risk Off Verbal Strike

Let’s Remove, Let’s Loosen EU Budget Rules…!!!

but

No EURO Dynamic Shot Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.1150 (1.1163)

DXY < 98 (97.77) -Jun Fut

GOLD < 1280 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/OqaQd1oShf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 20, 2019

FED Evans RISK OFF Verbal Strike

FED would only use QE at ZERO or NEAR-ZERO Rates

DXY Shot Up Test 98 Zone ( 97.85 )

vs

EUR/USD Shot Down to 1.1150 Zone (1.1158)

GBP/USD Shot Down < 1.2750 (1.2741)

May Earlier Strike almost Canceled…

that's why

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/hrbH30dmL9

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 21, 2019

FED MINUTES – CENTRAL TIME GAME

No Rate Moves are coming ‘for some time’
even if
Economy improves…!!!

but

No DXY Shot Down

DXY Up > 98 ( 98.08 )

EUR/USD Down < 1.1150 (1.1135)

GBP/USD Down < 1.2650 (1.2635)

GOLD in 1275 (1276)

Most Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/Ecm3d0sJiP

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

GERMAN GDP

Q1 2019

Y/Y 0.6% (est 0.6%, prev 0.6%)

Q/Q 0.4% (est 0.4%, prev 0.4%)

EURO Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.1150 (1.1133)

DXY > 98 (98.08) -Jun Fut

GOLD in 1275 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/ExCWyCYjP7

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

EUROZONE PMI

May 2019

Manufacturing May 47.7
Services 52.5

EURO Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.1150 (1.1133)

DXY > 98 (98.08) -Jun Fut

GOLD in 1275 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/lwLKGy2HJ3

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

German IFO Business Climate

May 2019 – 97.9 (est 99.1; prev 99.2)

EURO Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.1150 (1.1135)

DXY > 98 (98.08) -Jun Fut

GOLD in 1275 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/ZKcGxXStVw

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

ECB MINUTES – " BACK to PRINT "

TLTRO Terms to be Decided at One of the Upcoming Meetings

EURO still Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.1150 (1.1137)

DXY > 98 (98.07) -Jun Fut

GOLD in 1275 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/iBuQ6zmVlY

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

US PMI

May 2019

Manufacturing 50.6
Services 50.9

but No USD Wave Down

EURO still < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD Test 1.11 Zone (1.1118)

DXY > 98 (98.15) -Jun Fut

vs

GOLD Up > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/2mGrRvPpRR

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

EUR/USD Shot Down & Shot Up

Activated Intraday H1 Invert 2B in 1.11 Zone

1.1113 – 1.1108 (April – May)

EURO Back to 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD Test 1.1150 Zone (1.1141)

DXY Back to 98 (98.00) -Jun Fut

vs

GOLD Up > 1280 (1284)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/ruZR9QPBSD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 23, 2019

US Durable Goods Orders 04/19 -2.1%

Goldman Sachs cuts Q2 GDP to +1.3% from 1.5%

JP Morgan cuts Q2 GDP to +1% from 2.25%

USD Wave Down

EURO Back > Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1205)

DXY in 97.50 (97.51)

GOLD > 1280 (1282)

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/Ajkhr9uj9F

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 24, 2019

 

 

Second…

Present  EUR/USD   Situation 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN ACTION  

 

First…Market Motives :

First of All

European Parliament Election 

with

Political New Arrangement Risk

&

others EURO Vectors  : 

ECB – Super Draghi – Super Dovish – New TLTRO 

Economic Cycle Peak Risk 

Present &  Future Slowdown 

Negative Macro Data

Italian GDP & Debt 

MACRON , SALVINI & LE PEN  – Political Risk 

Japanification in Eurozone Scenario 

but with

EUROZONE Negative Macro Figure

Proof or Selective Reactions 

 

vs

US Super GDP

FED TIME GAME – No Dovisher 

but

FED – TRUMP  Conflict 

TRUMP Trade War

but with

Weaker than expected  US Macro Figures

( US PMI & US Durable Goods Orders )

&

Negative Results 

Goldman Sachs cuts Q2 GDP to +1.3% from 1.5%

JP Morgan cuts Q2 GDP to +1% from 2.25%

 

 

Second…Market Technical  Pattern :

EUR/USD Last Months  still shows   F/X VERDUN…

of course

F/X Master  Key Condition

No EOW & EOM Close under Key Level .12 

 

Monthly EUR/USD Verdun 

still Active

Two Monthly Candlesticks – Low Shadows

&

Ending Diagonal Pattern (  Weekly & Daily Charts )

Key Level 1.13 

with

Invert 2B Pattern ( Daily Chart ) 

Key Level Zone 1.11  ( 1.1110  & 1.1107 ) 

&

April & May Testing & Time Break 

( April Low : 1.1110 )

(  May Low so far  : 1.1107 )

Key Level 1.12 Zone 

(  Fib Ret 61.8%   – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 ) 

vs

Key Level 1.13  –  Ending Diagonal 

&

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

with

FIB RET  Monthly , Weekly & Daily

&

MACD Monthly & Weekly Sell Signals

vs

Now Again Active

Daily Buy Signal 

&

MACD Weekly Buy Signal  still Near to Activates  

 

 

ATA  EUR/USD Present Investment Conclusion 

All  Time…from August  2018

Against All Odds…

Now First of All

European Political Risk 

Italy , France & EUROZONE 

ECB Mario – Super Dovish – New TLTRO III

EUR/USD  

is  still  above

Key Level 1.12 Zone 

(  Fib Ret 61.8%   – All Wave Up 2017 – 2018 ) 

so

In the end decides…

Result of the Test 

of

This Last  Support Zone Key Level  1.12 

 

F/X Master  Key Condition

No EOW & EOM Close under Key Level  1.12 

vs

Break Down Key Level 1.12

will open

F/X  Downside Space for  EUR/USD 

 

Special Focus on

European Parliament Election Results 

&

Smart Money Sunday Night – Monday Night & Morning Reaction 

on

Ending Diagonal Pattern (  Weekly & Daily Charts )

with

Present  Key Levels   1.12 –  1.13 

 

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  Maxim 

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s – Monday after European Parliament Election

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Key Month May

 

with

BREXIT POLITICAL MESS SAGA…

BREXIT – EURROZONE Political  Risk Path…

after almost 3 Years after BREXIT Vote  still  dominating BREXIT UNKNOWN ABBYS…

so

Imagine what can be happend in EUROZONE after European Parlament Election…!!! 

 

 

 

EUR/USD  Monthly , Weekly , Daily  & Intraday  ( H4 & H5 )  Charts :

 

20.03.2014

08.03.2015

18.07.2017

01.09.2017

13.01.2018

16.01.2018

25.01.2018

26.07.2018

27.07.2018

27.07.2018  ( EOD ) 

6.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

6.08.2018 

( before American Trading Session ) 

7.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

8.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

10.08.2018 

( before European Trading Session ) 

10.08.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

17.08.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD  & EOW) 

22.08.2018  

(  Start European Session  )

24.08.2018  

(  Middle Time of  European Session  )

 

27.08.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

28.08.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

29.08.2018  

( Before Start of  American F/X Session )

13.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

21.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

25.09.2018  

(  Start of  European Session  )

28.09.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

5.10.2018  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

11.10.2018  

(  Start of American Session )

 

25.10.2018  

(  Middle of  European Session  )

2.11.2018  

(  Start  of  American Session  )

8.11.2018  

(  Before American Session  )

19.11.2018  

(  First Phase of American Session  )

18.01.2019  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

8.03.2019  

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

10.05.2019 

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW) 

24.05.2019 

(American Session Close) – (EOD & EOW)