YEN – USD/JPY – New FX RISK ON Game Changer Strike, in Russia Ukraine War RISK OFF Shadow…

FIRST OF ALL

ATA MIND OVER MARKET

JAPAN YEN   – All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

USD/JPY 

2019 Perspective – including 2016  – 2017 – 2018 History

2.08.2019 –    YEN – ESCAPE to JAPAN SAFE HAVEN…

2019 – Last

27.08.2019 –  YEN – SHORT TERM REVERSAL in SAFE HAVEN PLAY…

11.09.2019 –   YEN – ESCAPE from SAFE HAVEN…

24.09.2019 –  YEN – SAFE STRIKE …

25.11.2019 –  YEN – Japan Shadow of Wall Street Records & DXY Bull Strike Back…

4.12.2019 –  YEN – New Japan RISK OFF Strike…

11.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Stimulus & BoJ vs FED…

20.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Relative Strength still On…

2020

4.01.2020 –  YEN – IRAN SAVE ESCAPE…

8.01.2020 –  YEN – Japan RISK OFF Weakness vs IRAN Strike…

13.01.2020 –  YEN – No IRAN War Strike…

28.01.2020 –  YEN – Perfect Value of Inverted Ending Diagonal on Coronavirus Motive…

19.02.2020 –  YEN – Japan Total RISK OFF Retreat…

9.03.2020 –  YEN – JAPAN INFERNO…

8.04.2020 –  YEN – FX Calm before Japan Storm…

24.08.2020 – YEN – JAPAN FX WAITING…

21.09.2020 – YEN – Japan FX RISK OFF Strike…

21.12.2020 – YEN – FX GREEN WAVE AHEAD…

2021

7.03.2021 – YEN – FX GREEN BULLS ACTION…

22.05.2021 – YEN – FX GREEN PAUSE…

8.07.2021 – YEN – JAPAN WARNING…

JAPAN YEN Master Motives

YEN RISK ON STRIKE vs RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA DEAFULT RISK

Russia – Ukraine War – No Permanent RISK OFF Impact

USD/JPY Positive Divergences

Wall Street Indexes – still in War Low Zones

Inflow to USD FX Area – US – Fed Hawkish Ahead of March Rate Hike

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

USD F/X  Global Master Currencies Pathfinder

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone still Stopped  for Now

after

Test 38.2% 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

with

Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fight Continuation above 13.000 Key Level

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones still Stopped for Now

Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fight Continuation in War Low Zones

DJIA 30.000-33.000 Zone

S&P500 4000-4300 Zone

and

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

11.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 94.9% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US and Global Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

clear example

Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror

More Risk Scenario

Structural Stagflation Risk

Not Just Stagflation – Structural Stagflation

with

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Debt Rising

and

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS…

with

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and BOJ

Fed

Powell Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

4.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 98.8% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Taper

ECB

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

ECB Meeting Hawkish

ECB Lagarde Dovish

ECB Lagarde still Active Central Schizophrenia

Now Next Dovish vs Meeting Hawkish

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

BOJ

no stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave  Active – still on  Bull Track 

USD Bulls Fight  on Russia Ukraine War No Diplomacy Progress and Fed Hawkish

Bulls still > 99  Key Level

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave still Active

Now dominating

Bull Strike >  99 Key Level

Active Zone Key Levels  99  –  99.30

( EOW 99.11 )

First…ATA from  8.07.2021

YEN Long Term Battlefield 

107.50-108  vs   110-111

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Present Master  Key Levels 107.50 -108 vs 110-111

and of course

Final Smart Money Reaction 

Second…Present  YEN  Situation 

YEN  SECULAR  SITUATION 

Long Term  View

First of All

USD/JPY

(Monthly Line Chart )

After Activated

First…

USD Secular Bull Reversal ScenarioFX Game Changer

USD Bull Pattern – Inverted 2B – Key Level 85

1995 – 2012 Years Horizon

USD Long Term GREEN Bulls Wave

Test Higher 125 Zone

Second…

USD Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B Key Level 124

2007 – 2015 Years Horizon

USD Bear Correction Wave

Test 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 100

2016 Year

with Activated

USD Bull Pattern – Ending Diagonal

Upper Edge – Key Level 104 – 2021 Year

USD Long Term GREEN Bulls Wave

above

Bear Trendline from 2015 Top  – 2015 – 2021 Years

and Test

Master Psychological Target 110-111 Zone – 2021 Year

with Activated

Two Bear Reversal Patterns – 2B and Ending Diagonal – July 2021

Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 111.30

2B – Key Level 110.70

Monthly and Daily Charts

Test 30% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 109 – August 2021

Daily Chart

Activated

US Dollar New Bull Wave

above

Secular Bear Trendline from 1990 Top – Key Level 113 – 1990 – 2021 Years

Monthly Line Chart

Horizontal Resistance of Consolidation – Key Level 114 – 2017 – 2021 Years

Monthly Candlestick Chart – StockCharts

Now dominating

US Dollar Bull Wave

Ahead of Test Higher Key Levels

First… 118 – 118.50 Zone – Top 2016 Year

Second… 125 – 126 Zone – Top 2007 – 2015 Years

Monthly Candlestick Charts

Third… 117.50 Zone – Bull Trend Channel – Upper Edge

Daily Candlestick Chart

with

March Monthly Bull Candlestick for Now ( need Conformation EOM )

and

MACD Monthly Buy Signal and Daily Buy Signal

of course do not forget about the DEJAU VU YEN RISK OFF Impact 2015 Year

Yen Dynamic Strike Back under Secular Bear TrendlineNow Key Level 111

YEN Long Term Battlefield

112.50 114  vs  118-118.50 125-126

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Present Master  Key Levels  112.50 114  vs  118-118.50 125-126

and of course

Final Smart Money Reaction 

First..EOM – March

JAPAN YEN FUTURES , USD/JPY & EUR/JPY  Monthly  Weekly  & Daily Charts 

2.08.2019 (   Half of  European Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
USD-JPY - M

USD/JPY Weekly Daily & Intraday (H4)  Charts 

13.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

28.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

19.02.2020  (  before Start  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

9.03.2020  (  Second Half  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD/JPY  Monthly Charts 

8.04.2020  (  Second Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - M
USD-JPY - M - Line -1
USD-JPY - M - Line -2
USD-JPY - M - 1

24.08.2020 – Assian Session 

USD-JPY - M - StockCharts

21.09.2020 – Assian Session

21.12.2020 – before European Session Start

5.03.2021 – EOD

21.05.2021 – EOW

8.07.2021 – European Session – First Phase

11.03.2022 – EOW

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