YEN – USD/JPY – Japan FX Strike Back – US Dollar Bearish Reversal Risk…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

JAPAN YEN   – All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

USD/JPY 

2019 Perspective – including 2016  – 2017 – 2018 History

2.08.2019 –    YEN – ESCAPE to JAPAN SAFE HAVEN…

2019 – Last

27.08.2019 –  YEN – SHORT TERM REVERSAL in SAFE HAVEN PLAY…

11.09.2019 –   YEN – ESCAPE from SAFE HAVEN…

24.09.2019 –  YEN – SAFE STRIKE …

25.11.2019 –  YEN – Japan Shadow of Wall Street Records & DXY Bull Strike Back…

4.12.2019 –  YEN – New Japan RISK OFF Strike…

11.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Stimulus & BoJ vs FED…

20.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Relative Strength still On…

2020

4.01.2020 –  YEN – IRAN SAVE ESCAPE…

8.01.2020 –  YEN – Japan RISK OFF Weakness vs IRAN Strike…

13.01.2020 –  YEN – No IRAN War Strike…

28.01.2020 –  YEN – Perfect Value of Inverted Ending Diagonal on Coronavirus Motive…

19.02.2020 –  YEN – Japan Total RISK OFF Retreat…

9.03.2020 –  YEN – JAPAN INFERNO…

8.04.2020 –  YEN – FX Calm before Japan Storm…

24.08.2020 – YEN – JAPAN FX WAITING…

21.09.2020 – YEN – Japan FX RISK OFF Strike…

21.12.2020 – YEN – FX GREEN WAVE AHEAD…

2021

7.03.2021 – YEN – FX GREEN BULLS ACTION…

22.05.2021 – YEN – FX GREEN PAUSE…

8.07.2021 – YEN – JAPAN WARNING…

2022

12.03.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – New FX RISK ON Game Changer Strike, in Russia Ukraine War RISK OFF Shadow…

with

ATA Following…

GOLD Spot 

2022

23.07.2022 – GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

GOLD Futures

2022

24.07.2022 – GOLD Futures – Golden Bulls Bears 10 Years War – Major Bullish Zone under Bearish Attack in USD FX Shadow…

JAPAN YEN Master Motives

USD/JPY Hard Down

YEN RISK OFF Strike Back on Fed Pivot Scenario – 2022 Less Hawkish – 2023 Dovish Outlook

after Last

YEN RISK ON Strike vs RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA DEAFULT RISK – March 2022

Russia – Ukraine War – No Permanent RISK OFF Impact

YEN RISK ON Wave on Fed Hawkish vs BoJ Super Dovish – March – July 2022

with

Global Risk Off Waves stopped in June 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels 11.500-11.000  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 12.800

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  30.50029.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 32.000

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  3.800-3.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 4.000 

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and BOJ

Fed

Fed Pivot Scenario – Fed Hawkish Central Path Stopped

2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

after

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Political Crisis – Draghi Resignation

BOJ

non stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Stopped  from Overheat Extreme Risk to Activated Bear Strike

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk – Monthly Shooting Star Candlestick – Super Long Upper Shadow

after

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

vs

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Strike under Lower 106

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  still Stopped for Now

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk

with

Present Active Domination

Bear FX short term Correction with Latest Test Lower 105.50 Zone

Key Levels  105.30-50 – 105.80  Zone in Smart Money FX Game

( Fib Ret Last Two Bull Waves from 103.70 Zone and 101.30 Zone )

special focus on

Present Key Levels  105.30-50 105.80  –  106-106.50

( EOM-July 105.83 )

First…ATA from  12.03.2022

” Activated

US Dollar New Bull Wave

above

Secular Bear Trendline from 1990 Top – Key Level 113 – 1990 – 2021 Years

Monthly Line Chart

Horizontal Resistance of Consolidation – Key Level 114 – 2017 – 2021 Years

Monthly Candlestick Chart – StockCharts

Now dominating

US Dollar Bull Wave

Ahead of Test Higher Key Levels

First… 118 – 118.50 Zone – Top 2016 Year

Second… 125 – 126 Zone – Top 2007 – 2015 Years “

and

ATA Yen Key Tweets

First of All

Japan Yen

Second…Present  YEN  Situation 

YEN  SECULAR  SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL IN SECULAR ACTION  

USD/JPY

First of All

Last High Zone 139-140 Zone – July 2022

( stricte 139.40 )

(Monthly Line Chart )

After Activated

First…

USD Secular Bull Reversal Scenario – FX Game Changer

USD Bull Pattern – Inverted 2B – Key Level 85

1995 – 2012 Years Horizon

USD Long Term GREEN Bulls Wave

Test Higher 125 Zone

Second…

USD Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B  Key Level 124

2007 – 2015 Years Horizon

USD Bear Correction Wave

Test 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 100

2016 Year

with Activated

USD Bull Pattern – Ending Diagonal

Upper Edge – Key Level 104 – 2021 Year

USD Long Term GREEN Bulls Wave

above

Bear Trendline from 2015 Top  – 2015 – 2021 Years

and Test

Master Psychological Target 110-111 Zone – 2021 Year

with Activated

Two Bear Reversal Patterns – 2B and Ending Diagonal – July 2021

Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 111.30

2B – Key Level 110.70

Monthly and Daily Charts

Test 30% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 109 – August 2021

Daily Chart

Activated

US Dollar New Bull Wave – October 2021

above

Secular Bear Trendline from 1990 Top – Key Level 113 – 1990 – 2021 Years

Monthly Line Chart

Horizontal Resistance of Consolidation – Key Level 114 – 2017 – 2021 Years

Monthly Candlestick Chart – StockCharts

and

US Dollar Bulls Domination – October 2021 – July 2022

Dynamic Dollar Run above Higher Key Levels

First… 118 – 118.50 Zone – Top 2016 Year

Second… 125 – 126 Zone – Top 2007 – 2015 Years

vs

Test Fib Ext 78.6% – Key Level 138.60 Zone

First Long Term Bull Wave 2011 – 2015 Years

Monthly Candlestick Charts

Now dominating

Bear Dynamic Strike Back

First.. Back under 139 and 138.50

Activated

Ending Diagonal

First…Test Upper Edge – Key Level 139

Second…Bear Strike under Lower Edge – Key Level 138

M Pattern

138.80 Key Level

Daily Candlestick Charts

with

July Monthly Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern

and

MACD Monthly Buy Signal vs  Daily Sell Signal after Strong Negative Divergences

YEN Long Term Battlefield

130  133  vs   135 138 139-139.50

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Present Master Key Levels  130  133  vs   135 138 139-139.50

125 – 126 Zone – Top 2007 – 2015 Years

Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – special 130 and 125 Key Levels

Secular Perspective

Fib Ret Secular Bear Wave – special 23.6% 142.50 Key Level Zone

1972 – 2012 Years

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

with Next

USD and YEN News

Russia Ukraine War and Inflation

Fed vs BOJ and ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Japan Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – August

JAPAN YEN FUTURES , USD/JPY & EUR/JPY  Monthly  Weekly  & Daily Charts 

2.08.2019 (   Half of  European Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
USD-JPY - M

USD/JPY Weekly Daily & Intraday (H4)  Charts 

13.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

28.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

19.02.2020  (  before Start  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

9.03.2020  (  Second Half  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD/JPY  Monthly Charts 

8.04.2020  (  Second Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - M
USD-JPY - M - Line -1
USD-JPY - M - Line -2
USD-JPY - M - 1

24.08.2020 – Assian Session 

USD-JPY - M - StockCharts

21.09.2020 – Assian Session

21.12.2020 – before European Session Start

5.03.2021 – EOD

21.05.2021 – EOW

8.07.2021 – European Session – First Phase

11.03.2022 – EOW

29.07.2022 – EOM

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