YEN – EUR/JPY – FX RISK ON/OFF Hard Fight on Russia Ukraine War Impact…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

JAPAN YEN   – All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

JAPAN YEN FUTURES & EUR/JPY 

2018

17.11.2018 –  YEN – NONE NEW HARD JAPAN STRIKE…

2019 

17.01.2019 –  YEN – RISK OFF REVENGE…

10.05.2019 –  YEN after BOJ – KURODA & TRUMP with IRAN & NORTH KOREA STRIKES…

22.07.2019 –  YEN – JAPAN RISK OFF ACTION…

2.08.2019 –    YEN – ESCAPE to JAPAN SAFE HAVEN…

ATA Following…

12.03.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – New FX RISK ON Game Changer Strike, in Russia Ukraine War RISK OFF Shadow…

JAPAN YEN Master Motives

YEN RISK ON STRIKE vs RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA DEAFULT RISK

Russia – Ukraine War – No Permanent Global RISK OFF Impact

EUR/JPY Positive Divergences

Wall Street Indexes – still in War Low Zones

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

USD F/X  Global Master Currencies Pathfinder

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone still Stopped  for Now

after

Test 38.2% 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

with

Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fight Continuation above 13.000 Key Level

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones still Stopped for Now

Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fight Continuation in War Low Zones

DJIA 30.000-33.000 Zone

S&P500 4000-4300 Zone

and

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

11.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 94.9% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US and Global Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

clear example

Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror

More Risk Scenario

Structural Stagflation Risk

Not Just Stagflation – Structural Stagflation

with

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Debt Rising

and

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

with

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and BOJ

Fed

Powell Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

4.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 98.8% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Taper

ECB

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

ECB Meeting Hawkish

ECB Lagarde Dovish

ECB Lagarde still Active Central Schizophrenia

Now Next Dovish vs Meeting Hawkish

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

BOJ

no stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave  Active – still on  Bull Track 

USD Bulls Fight  on Russia Ukraine War – No Diplomacy Progress and Fed Hawkish

Bulls still > 99  Key Level

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave still Active

Now dominating

Bull Strike >  99 Key Level

Active Zone Key Levels  99  –  99.30

( EOW 99.11 )

First…ATA from  2.08.2019

EUR/JPY

after

Break Down Psychological key Level 120 

still dominating

Falling Wave 

vs

Ending Diagonal Pattern 

Lower Edge Zone – Key Level 116.50 

Second…Present  YEN  Situation

YEN  SECULAR  SITUATION 

Long Term  View

First of All

EUR/JPY

( Monthly Line and Candlestick Charts )

still Active Secular Bear Trendline from 1990 Top – Key Level 145 – 1990 – Present 2022 Years

After Activated

First…

EURO Secular Bear Reversal Process

EURO Bear Patterns

2B  – Key Level 160 1998 – 2008 Years Horizon

with

M  – Key Level 169 2007 – 2008 Years

EURO Long Term Bear Wave

Test Extreme Lower 95 Zone

Second…

EURO Secular Bull Reversal Scenario – FX Game Changer

EURO Bull Pattern –  W  – Key Level 95

2000 – 2012 Years Horizon

EURO Long Term Bulls Wave

Test Higher 150 Zone

Third…

EURO Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B  Key Level 145

2013 – 2014 Years

Finally Now Forming Domination

Bull Action Scenario

Triangle Pattern

Upper Edge Triangle – Key Level 133 Zone

Lower Edge Triangle – Key Level 120 Zone

2015 – Present 2022 Years Horizon

EURO Bears Bulls Waves inside Triangle

Fib Ret Constellation

Last EURO Bear Wave vs Test 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 124 Zone

Present EURO Bull Contraction from 124 to 128 Zone

March Monthly Bullish Reversal Pattern – Hammer – Long Lower Shadow for Now

( needed confirmation EOM )

vs

Open Alternative Scenario Bear Continuation

Test Lower Edge Triangle – Key Level 120 Zone

with

MACD Monthly Bear Signal

YEN Long Term Battlefield

120  124 128  vs  130-135 145

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Master  Key Levels  120  124 128  vs  130-135 145

with

Present Active 128 Key Level

and of course

Final Smart Money Reaction 

First..EOM – March

JAPAN YEN FUTURES & EUR/JPY  Monthly Charts

16.11.2018 

EUR-JPY-M
EUR-JPY-W
EUR-JPY-D
YEN FUT
EUR-JPY-M Line

17.01.2019

yen fut
eur-jpy-m
eur-jpy-m line

10.05.2019 ( before US Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
YEN FUT - M - Line - Focus
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

22.07.2019 ( Starting Phase  US Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

2.08.2019 (   Half of  European Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

EUR/JPY  Monthly Charts

11.03.2022 – EOW

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