YEN – FX Calm before Japan Storm…

JAPAN YEN   – All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation of…

UD/JPY 

2019 – Lasts 

4.12.2019 –  YEN – New Japan RISK OFF Strike…

11.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Stimulus & BoJ vs FED…

20.12.2019 –  YEN – Japan Relative Strength still On…

2020

4.01.2020 –  YEN – IRAN SAVE ESCAPE…

8.01.2020 –  YEN – Japan RISK OFF Weakness vs IRAN Strike…

13.01.2020 –  YEN – No IRAN War Strike…

28.01.2020 –  YEN – Perfect Value of Inverted Ending Diagonal on Coronavirus Motive…

19.02.2020 –  YEN – Japan Total RISK OFF Retreat…

9.03.2020 –  YEN – JAPAN INFERNO…

 

JAPAN YEN Master Motives

Global Coronavirus Pandemic – still High Risk 

Wuhan Exodus Extreme Risk

&

Coronavirus Second Wave Risk

Lockdown Ends – Starts Risk

with

Global Slowdown or Recession Extreme High Risk

 

FED-BOJ-ECB-BoE-Biggest ever Black Swan

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

vs

Coronavirus “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger

&

FED “Central Printing Projection”

Balance Sheet  Skyrocket Rising  Future Move

Japanification in Global Central Action

BOJ  Mega Easing Process 

Goldman Sachs Japan Economy Warning 

Japan Economy Q2 Shrink 25%

but with

YEN No Dynamic Risk Off  Japan Safe Haven Wave 

vs

USD – Very Strong Main Global Currency 

 

US  Factors  for  YEN   

Bernanke RISK OFF Verbal Strike

No V-Shaped US Recovery

Trump signed CARES Act-2.2 Trillion USD

&

FED Atlanta Bostic “More&More” Strike

More for US Economy Financial System if needed

Mnuchin US Macro “Wonder” Strike

5% GDP-EOY 2020 Realistic

FED Powell New Central “More&More” Strike

Policy Room for More Action

Central Banks-Hazard ALL IN

FED Mega Easing BAZOOKA Strike – QE No Limits 

US Government  Stimulus Packet 

with

Bernanke “Now No Great Depression” Strike

FED Bullard “Boom” Strike

after short term Shock US Economy will Boom again

Kudlow RISK ON Verbal Strike

US likely V-shaped Recovery in Summer vs Present 10-15% Contraction

vs

FED Bullard US Economy Götterdämmerung Scenario

US Q2 GDP -50% & Unemployment Rate 30%

Goldman Sachs US Coronavirus-driven Recession Strike

Goldman “Apocalypse” Strike

Expectation Record 24% Crash US Q2 GDP

Mnuchin US Jobless Warning

Coronavirus could Yield 20% Jobless Rate without Action

Morgan Stanley Base Case – Global Recession

 

ATA Conclusion 

Wall Street Factor  for  YEN  

still High Probability

of

2000 Year  DOT.COM  Bubble Burst  DEJA VU Scenario

or even

1929 Great Depression 

with

Guggenheim “PONZI SCHEME” Collapse Warning

Central Banks driven ‘Ponzi Scheme’ must Collapse

Tech Bubble High Risk 

GLOBAL FLAT MONEY ERROR SYSTEM MEGA RISK 

 

YEN - COVID

 

First…ATA from  9.03.2020

” USD/JPY

Weekly View

Testing Psychological Key Level 100

( Low 101.18 )

Present Bull Contraction & Back above

Psychological Key Level 102 

( Now 102.40 )

Weekly Bear Candlestick 

Large Real Body vs  Lower Shadow 

Daily View 

Present Daily Bear Candlestick 

Very Long Lower Shadow 

Intraday View 

Last H4 Candlesticks  Long Lower Shadows 

above Key Level  102   ”

 

Second…Present  YEN  Situation 

YEN  SECULAR  SITUATION 

 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS

Hope is Not a Strategy 

Follow the Trendlines  Not the Headlines 

Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal

 

ATA MARKET MODEL 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

 

First…Key Motives

above in this text…

 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

YEN  Secular  View

(  Monthly Chart )

USD/JPY

all time dominating

Option One

Horizontal Channel 

Key Levels 104.50  vs 112 – 114 Zone 

started February 2017

Option Two

Triangle – Continuation Pattern 

Upper Edge – Key Level  110.30 

after earlier Activated

Secular Bullish Ending Diagonal 

with

MACD Monthly Activated Buy Signal 

needed confirmation – EOM – April

 

YEN Long-Medium-Short Term Battlefield 

108    vs   110 – 110.30  

 

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on 

Present Master  Key Levels Zone

108    vs   110 – 110.30  

with

Break out  of  Triangle 

and of course

New Coronavirus News

vs

Central Banks  Strikes

&

Final Smart Money Reaction 

 

ATA  Maximes

MAJOR TOPS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED on SUPER GOOD NEWS

with

EUPHORY PHASE …!!!

vs

MAJOR BOTTOMS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER NEGATIVE NEWS

with

PANIC PHASE

 

Market Trend always changed when Mainstream Media created 

One Slogan ” No Chance for Change “…

that’s why

Charts show you  Reversal Pattern First  ex ante…!!!

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  & Metals Maximes 

Risk strikes Fast…

Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First..EOM-April 

 

JAPAN YEN FUTURES , USD/JPY & EUR/JPY  Monthly  Weekly  & Daily Charts :

2.08.2019 (   Half of  European Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line

USD-JPY - M

USD-JPY - W

USD-JPY - D

EUR-JPY - M

EUR-JPY - W

EUR-JPY - D

USD-JPY - M - Line

EUR-JPY - M - Line

 

USD/JPY Intraday ( H4 )  Charts :

27.08.2019 (   First Half of  US Session )

USD-JPY-H4 -1

USD-JPY-H4 -2

USD/JPY  Daily & Intraday ( H4 )  Charts :

11.09.2019 (   First Half of  US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

USD/JPY  Daily & Intraday ( H4 )  Charts :

24.09.2019 ( Second Half of  US Session)

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

25.11.2019 (  Half of  US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

4.12.2019 (  Start US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

11.12.2019 (  Half of  US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

20.12.2019 (  Second Half of  US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

3.01.2020 – EOD 

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

8.01.2020  (  before Start US Session )

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - D - Focus.png

USD-JPY - H4

USD/JPY Weekly Daily & Intraday (H4)  Charts :

13.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

28.01.2020  (  First Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

19.02.2020  (  before Start  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

9.03.2020  (  Second Half  US Session )

USD-JPY - W

USD-JPY - D

USD-JPY - H4

 

USD/JPY  Monthly Charts :

8.04.2020  (  Second Phase US Session )

USD-JPY - M

USD-JPY - M - Line -1

USD-JPY - M - Line -2

USD-JPY - M - 1

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