CHF/JPY – Swiss Safe Haven Bull Trend since 2016 Year with stricte European RISK OFF Implications of Russia-Ukraine War…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

SWISS FRANC  &  JAPAN YEN –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

First of All

SWISS FRANC

28.03.2013 – SWISS STORM…

&

SWISS FRANC vs JAPAN YEN

2019

22.12.2019 –  CHF/JPY – NEW EUROZONE STORM 2020 Open Scenario…

2020

15.01.2020 –  CHF/JPY – EUROZONE-ITALIAN STORM 2020 Rising Risk…

13.05.2020 – CHF/JPY – NEXT SWISS BULL STRIKE AHEAD in EUROZONE SHADOW …

24.10.2020 – CHF/JPY – When Time Will Come…

2021

24.05.2021 – CHF/JPY – SWISS BULLS FX ACTION…

11.07.2021 CHF/JPY – DOUBLE SAFE HAVEN IMPACT…

with

ATA Following…

EUR/CHF

5.03.2022 SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – SWISS SAFE HAVEN WAVE ACCELERATION on RUSSIA INVASION…

EUR/JPY

13.03.2022 YEN – EUR/JPY – FX RISK ON/OFF Hard Fight on Russia Ukraine War Impact…

USD/JPY

12.03.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – New FX RISK ON Game Changer Strike, in Russia Ukraine War RISK OFF Shadow…

SWISS FRANC  vs  JAPAN YEN Master  Motives

SWISS FRAC vs JAPAN YEN Bull Trend , started in June July 2016 in Psychological Key Level 100 Zone

First…show ex ante stricte European Rising Risk RISK OFF Impact

Second… still confirm European High Risk

on

RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA RATING JUNK

even with LOWER DEAFULT RISK

even after Russia – Ukraine Talks and Biden – Xi Call

Russia – Ukraine War – Permanent European RISK OFF Impact

with

EUROZONE Countries Debt Problems – for example Italy

CHF/JPY vs Wall Street and Global Stock Market Negative Divergences

CHF/JPY New Higher Top since 2016

vs

Wall Street and Global Indexes – Bulls Dynamic Contraction > War Low Zones

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

USD F/X  Global Master Currencies Pathfinder

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone still Stopped for Now

after

Test 38.2% 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

with

Present Active Bull Dynamic Contraction from 13.000 to above 14.000 Key Level

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones still Stopped for Now

with

Present Active Bull Dynamic Strikes

from War Low Zones DJIA 32.000 Zone S&P500 4100 Zone

to Higher Key Levels DJIA 35.000 Zone S&P500 4500 Zone

and

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US and Global Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

clear example

Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror

More Risk Scenario

Structural Stagflation Risk

Not Just Stagflation – Structural Stagflation

with

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Debt Rising

and

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

with

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and SNB BOJ

Fed

Powell Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Taper

ECB

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

ECB Meeting Hawkish

ECB Lagarde Dovish

ECB Lagarde still Active Central Schizophrenia

Now Next Dovish vs Meeting Hawkish

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

SNB

Ahead of March 24 2022 Meeting

Ultra Dovish – Ultra-loose Monetary Policy 

Current policy

combining world lowest interest rates with currency market interventions

BOJ

no stop Super Dovish – Huge Stimulus

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave  New Hard StoppedBack from Bull Track 

USD Bears Strike Back on Fed Hawkish Verdict – Outlook and Russia Ukraine War vs Talks

Bears Dynamic Strike99  Key Level

Bear Reversal Pattern – M Intraday H5 Key Level 99.30

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Hard Stopped

Now dominating

Bear Wave from 99.30 to 98  Key Level

vs

Bull Contraction from 98

Active Zone Key Levels  98  –  98.30

( EOW 98.21 )

ATA Key Tweets

First…ATA from  11.07.2021

” Now  dominating

SWISS Bull Trend in Raising Channel

but with Present

Swiss Bear Contraction

Test Lower Edge Bull Channel – Key Level 119

vs

Back above Psychological Key Level 120

( Now 120.50 ) ”

Second…Present  SWISS FRANC vs JAPAN YEN  Secular Situation 

CHF/JPY LONG  TERM  SITUATION 

SWISS FRANC  vs  JAPAN YEN Secular View

CHF/JPY

( Monthly Charts )

First of All

ATH 140 Zone – January 2015

( stricte 138.94 )

After…

First…Test 61.8% Fib Ret – Long Term Bull Wave Psychological Key Level 100 Zone

2012 – 2015 Years Horizon

Monthly Bull Reversal Candlesticks Long Lower Shadows above Key Level 100

June – July 2016

Second…Activated Two Bulls Reversal Patterns

2019 – 2020 Horizon

First…Ending Diagonal 

Second… Inverted H&S

Rising above Neckline Inverted H&S – Key Level 117.30

Finally

Dynamic Swiss Bull Strike

with

Bull vs Bear Strikes – Test Upper – Lower Edges of Bull Channel

Now still dominating

SWISS Bull Trend in Raising Channel

with Present Active

Swiss Bull Strike

Ahead of Test Upper Edge Bull Channel – Key Level 130 Zone

( Now EOW 127.89 )

March Monthly Bull Candlestick

with still Active

MACD Monthly Buy Signal 

CHF/JPY FX Secular  Battlefield

CHF/JPY

120-125  vs  128 -130

ATA Investment Conclusion

CHF/JPY

Focus carefully on

Present Master Range

120-125  vs  128 -130

with Next

EUROZONE SWISS – JAPAN Debt , Economy and COVID News 

of course finally

Future Final Smart Money Reaction 

First…Now EOM-March

CHF/JPY  Monthly Charts

20.12.2019 – EOW

CHF-JPY-M-S
CHF-JPY-M
CHF-JPY-M - Line

15.01.2020 – ( First Half European Session ) 

CHF-JPY-M-S
CHF-JPY-M
CHF-JPY-M - Line

13.05.2020 – ( First Phase US Session ) 

CHF-JPY - M

23.10.2020 – EOD

24.05.2021 – before Start European Session

9.07.2021 – EOW

18.03.2022 – EOW

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