Baltic Dry Index – from Bear Reversal October 2021 to Bear Wave 2022 vs Signal of  Losing Bearish Momentum …

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

Baltic Dry Index – Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange.

BDI measures changes in the cost of transporting…

ATA Continuation of…

2015 

21.11.2015 – Baltic Dry Index – True Picture vs Legend of Global Recovery

2016

12.01.2016 – Baltic Dry Index – HALTED GLOBAL FOREGIN TRADE…

2021

12.08.2021 – Baltic Dry Index – Rising Risk of End Shipping Trade Euphory…

19.09.2021 – Baltic Dry Index – Danger of “Red-Hot Shipping” on Horizon…

17.10.2021 – Baltic Dry Index – Bear Reversal in Smart Money Play on Mainstream Big Cargo Crunch…

ATA Following…

Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF

3.09.2022 – Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF – from Bulls Ecstasy Over October 2021 to Bear Dynamic Wave 2022 but with First Signal of Stop…

ATA Special Following …

European Natural Gas

17.07.2022 – European Natural Gas Futures – Old Continent Energy Crisis – Next Phase – Winter Warning…

ATA Special Conclusion

Natural Gas – Shipping Container Trade

Present Energy Crisis 2022 – Shipping Container Crisis 2021

PERFECT DEJA VU…!!!

2022 – Smart Money Mega Speculation in Energy Market – German Electricity Price Skyrocket – Test 1000 EURO/MWH Zone on Mainstream Media Energy Russia Winter Panic

2021 – Smart Money Mega Speculation in Shipping Container Market on Mainstream Media Global Trade Broken Supply Chains Container Cost Skyrocket Panic

Baltic Dry Index Master Motives

Baltic Dry Index  Bears Hard Dynamic Wave Continuation – 2022 Year

on

Recession Hard Landing Slowdown Global Economy and Global Trade

after

Mainstream Perfect Motive Big Cargo Crunch – October 2021 Year

with

Global Risk Off Waves Continuation after Reactivation in August 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact Active  for Now

with

Present

Bears Hard Strikes after Activated Bearish Ending Diagonal Patterns

vs

Bullish Ending Diagonal and W Patterns in Play

on

Extreme Last Euphory Summer Rally and Present Fear  Main Warns Factors Strikes Back

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK OFF Impact from August Fib Ret Zones vs above  May – June Lows Zone

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

LONG TERM MOTIVES

WALL STREET

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped with Last RISK OFF Impact Strike Back

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone

vs

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 13.700 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. – Test 12.000 Zone

DJIA and S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone

vs

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 34.000 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. – Test 31.000-31.300 Zone

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone

vs

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 4.300 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. – Test 3.900 Zone

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC 

Fed

Fed More Hawkish Active – 75bps September Meeting – Fed Powell Hawkish Speech Jackson Hole

Fed Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario

vs

Fed Pivot Scenario 2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook Reactivation Canceled for Now

on Fed Powell Hawkish Verbal Strike in Jackson Hole Symposium

after

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB more Hawkish September Meeting Outlook – 75bps September Hike Rate Projection

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis

PBoC

PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish

Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Reactivation Cont. after Cooling Strike from Overheat Extreme Risk Zone

Long Term Bulls  – Present Bulls Strike Back  after Last Bear FX Hard Fight

August Monthly Bullish Candlestick – Large Real Body

with

New Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High 110 Zone above July/22 Top 109.30

after

Last Short Term FX Strikes

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Test Lower 104.60 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

vs

Bulls Dynamic Strike from 104.60 Zone – Active Defense 104.78 56.4% Fib Ret Bull Wave from 101.30

March 2022 Low

Bullish Intraday ( H4 ) W Pattern – Key Level 104.63-65

Bullish Daily Inverted 2B Pattern – Key Level 105.00-05

Back > Key Levels  105 , 105.50 and 108.50 , 109.30

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Active ( July High 109.30 – September High 110 Zone stricte 109.97)

with

Present Active Domination

Bulls FX short term Strike Cont. > 109.30

Key Levels   108-108.50  109 – 109.30  vs 110 Zone in Smart Money FX Game

special focus on

Present Key Levels  108-108.50  109 – 109.30  vs 110

( EOW 109.60 )

First…ATA from  17.10.2021

New Pattern Inception

Smaller Ending Diagonal in Bigger Ending Diagonal

Bull Move above Upper Edge Small Ending Diagonal

Now dominating

Dynamic Bear Contraction from Fib Ext 2.236 – 2.414% Zone

Back

under 5.500 and 5.000

under Upper Edge Small Ending Diagonal Key Level 5250

inside this Bearish Pattern

ahead of Test

Lower Edge Small Ending Diagonal Key Level 4750

with

Rising Risk of Future Active this Bear Ending Diagonal

Present Baltic Dry Index Situation

BDI LONG TERM SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

Weekly View 

First of All

ATH 5500 Zone – October 2021

( stricte 5650 )

After

First…Formed Major Low – Key Level 300 – February 2016

Second…Activated Dynamic Bull Wave

from 300 Zone ( February 2016 ) to 1250 Zone November 2016 )

and

Formed 

Long Term Inverted Ending Diagonal 2016 – August 2021

with

Last…Bear – Bull Cycle

Bear Phase

pre Covid Bear Wave from Upper Edge Inverted Ending Diagonal

from 2500 Zone ( August 2019 ) to 400 Zone February 2020 )

Bull Phase

Bull Reversal Pattern in Lower Edge Inverted Ending Diagonal

W Pattern – Key Level 400 Zone February – May 2020 )

and

Covid Panic Bull Wave

from 400 Zone ( May 2020 ) to 3800 Zone August 2021 )

with

Bull Strike  above Upper Edge Inverted Ending Diagonal Key Level 3800

Finally Last

Bull Wave above Higher Psychological Key Level 5.500

Test Fib Ext 2.236 – 2.414% Zone First Bull Wave from 2016 Year Low

with

Activated Bearish Patterns

New Pattern Inception

Smaller Ending Diagonal in Bigger Ending Diagonal

and

Bear Dynamic Wave from 5.500 to 1000 Zone

Now still dominating

Bear Wave

vs

First Signal of Stop Bearish Action

Test Fib Ret 88.6% Bull Big Wave May 2020 – October 2021

Psychological Key Level 1000 Zone

with

Present Weekly Bull Reversal Candlestick Pattern – Hammer Lower Shadow

vs

MACD Weekly  Sell Signal 

ATA Investment Conclusion

special focus on

Present Active Key Level  1000 

Fib Ret Big Bull Wave 

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

with Next

Shipping News   Russia Moves  Ukraine War –  China – Taiwan

War  and  Global Economy News

Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOW-s

Final…EOM – September

Baltic Dry Index Monthly Charts

21.11.2015

12.01.2016

Baltic Dry Index Weekly Charts

11.08.2021 – EOD

17.09.2021 – EOW

15.10.2021 – EOW

2.09.2022 – EOW

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