Bloomberg Commodity Index – Secular Horizon – from Bullish Big Awakening March-April 2020 to Bearish Reversal March-June 2022 with Present Bulls New Strike on Double W – War & Winter Fears…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

Bloomberg Commodity Index – Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2012

23.04.2012 – CRB – Kierunkowskaz dla EM…

2015

27.09.2015 – CRB – IT’S NOW OR NEVER…

9.12.2015 – CRB – USD IS THE COMMODITIES KEY

2020

12.04.2020 –  Bloomberg Commodity Index – Secular Horizon in Shadows of USD & COVID-19…

20.10.2020 – Bloomberg Commodity Index – Secular Horizon Aggregate Awakening…

2021

19.10.2021Bloomberg Commodity Index – Secular Horizon – from Big Awakening 2020 Year to Bull Action 2021…

ATA Following…

European COAL Rotterdam Futures

21.08.2022 – COAL Rotterdam Futures – from Bullish Reversal June 2020 to Panic Buying March 2022 with Present No New ATH on European Energy Crisis Extreme Warns Wave…

GOLD Spot 

23.07.2022 – GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

GOLD Futures

24.07.2022 – GOLD Futures – Golden Bulls Bears 10 Years War – Major Bullish Zone under Bearish Attack in USD FX Shadow…

European Natural Gas Futures

17.07.2022 – European Natural Gas Futures – Old Continent Energy Crisis – Next Phase – Winter Warning…

US Natural Gas Futures

17.07.2022 – US Natural Gas Futures – Long Term Perspective – after First Panic Buying 2021 with Russia War Impact and Second Panic Buying 2022…

OIL

16.07.2022 – OIL – Secular Perspective – 2022 Year Bear Game Changer Action in Saudi Arabia Shadow…

COPPER/GOLD Ratio

18.06.2022 – COPPER/GOLD RATIO – from Bearish Reversal to Bear Wave in Stagflation Fear Mainstream Flashes…

WHEAT

22.05.2022 – WHEAT Futures – “ALL IN…” – Bulls Run vs Bears Reversal on Food Catastrophe Mainstream Panic…

LUMBER

3.07.2022 – LUMBER Futures – Secular View – Wood Price – US Housing Market Peak US Recession Risk Double Impact…

Bloomberg Commodity Index  Present Main Motives

European Energy Crisis and  Global Energy Crisis – Russia-Ukraine War Factor

Energy Crisis Transformation from stricte  European Crisis to Global Crisis

in 

Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

War Shock Spark and Peak

Inflation Shock vs Inflation Peak Scenario

with

Central Banks special Fed Hawkish vs ECB Hawkish Scenarios  with PBoC Dovish in Smart Money Game

ATA Conclusion

Russia – Ukraine War ; China Taiwan Tensions – Geopolitical RISK OFF Impact 

on 

World Commodity Prices stricte Bloomberg Commodity Index

with

Global Risk Off Waves Reactivation in August 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact Activated  for Now

with

Present Bears Hard Strikes after Activated Bearish Ending Diagonal Patterns

on

Extreme Last Euphory Summer Rally and Present Fear  Main Warns Factors Strikes Back

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear and Taiwan Risk with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK OFF Impact from August Fib Ret Zones vs above  May – June Lows Zone

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

LONG TERM MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped with Last RISK OFF Impact Strike Back

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 61.8% Fib Ret 13.600-700 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 15.300 Zone

vs

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 13.700 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. < 12.800

DJIA and S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 78.6% Fib Ret 34.000 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 35.500 Zone

vs

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 34.000 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. < 32.300 

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Reactivation for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 68.5% Fib Ret 4.300 Zone Bear Wave from March 2022 Top 4.600 Zone

vs

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Stopped in 4.300 Zone

with

Present  Bear Strike Cont. < 4.100

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and PBoC 

Fed

Fed More Hawkish Strike Back – 75bps September Meeting – Fed Powell Hawkish Speech Jackson Hole

Fed Hawkish – Higher Rates for Longer – Fed Main Present Active Scenario

vs

Fed Pivot Scenario 2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook Reactivation Canceled for Now

on Fed Powell Hawkish Verbal Strike in Jackson Hole Symposium

after

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB Hawkish September Meeting Outlook – 50bps September Hike Rate Projection

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis

PBoC

PBoC – People Bank of China – more Dovish

Last Two unexpectedly Interest Rate Cuts after January 2022 Rate Cut

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Reactivation Cont. after Cooling Strike from Overheat Extreme Risk Zone

Long Term Bulls  – Present Bulls Strike Back  after Last Bear FX Hard Fight

August Monthly Bullish Candlestick – Large Real Body ( needed EOM confirmation )

vs

July Monthly Shooting Star Bearish Candlestick – Super Long Upper Shadow

with

New 2nd Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

after

Last Short Term FX Strikes

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Test Lower 104.60 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

vs

Bulls Dynamic Strike from 104.60 Zone – Active Defense 104.78 56.4% Fib Ret Bull Wave from 101.30

March 2022 Low

Bullish Intraday ( H4 ) W Pattern – Key Level 104.63-65

Bullish Daily Inverted 2B Pattern – Key Level 105.00-05

Back > Key Levels  105 , 105.50 and 108.50

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30 – August 2nd Test 109.30 Zone )  Reactivation  for Now

Long Term Bearish Reversal Canceled for Now ( ( needed EOM confirmation )

with

Present Active Domination

Bulls FX short term Strike Cont. > 108.50  from Latest  Lower 104.60 Zone

Key Levels  105 -106.50-106.80 – 108-108.50 vs 109 – 109.30  Zone in Smart Money FX Game

special focus on

Present Key Levels  105 -106.50-106.80 – 108-108.50 vs 109 – 109.30

( EOW 108.83 )

First…ATA from  19.10.2021

” Now dominating

Bull Dynamic Wave

after

Bull Strike above Secular Horizon Lows Zone  1999 – 2016 Years 

74 – 75 ( Line Chart )

72 – 73  ( Candle Chart )

Activated

Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Line Chart )

Long Term Inverted Ending Diagonal ( Candlestick Chart )

Break

Upper Edge Secular Bear Channel

( Candlestick Chart ) “

Second…Present  Bloomberg Commodity Index  Situation

COMMODITIES INDEX  SECULAR PERSPECTIVE

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN  SECULAR  ACTION  

Monthly View 

First of All  All Time

Secular Horizontal  Range 

Active

Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Line Chart )

Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Candlestick Chart )

Long Term Inverted Ending Diagonal ( Candlestick Chart )

vs

Bull Dynamic Wave Stopped – Test 44.7% Fib Ret Zone Bear Wave from pre-Lehman Top

Bear Reversal Pattern Activated – hybryd M – Key Level 139-140 Zone March – June 2022

ATA Bloomberg Commodity Index  Secular Research

After

First…Created

Major All Time High Top before Lehman

Second…Activated

Major Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B  – 2008 year 

H&S Pattern – 2009 – 2014 years

Hybrid H&S – 2016 – 2020 years 

and

Break Down Secular Trendline 

Dynamic Waterfall on Covid Panic

Test  Lower Psychological Key Level 60

Lower Edge Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Line Candlestick Charts )

( low 59.08 – March 2020 )

Stop  Wave Down 

Finally

Bull Strike above Secular Horizon Lows Zone  1999 – 2016 Years 

74 – 75 ( Line Chart )

72 – 73  ( Candle Chart )

Activated

Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Line Chart )

Secular Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Candlestick Chart )

Long Term Inverted Ending Diagonal ( Candlestick Chart )

and

Bull Dynamic Wave to March 2022

vs

Bull Dynamic Wave Stopped – Test 44.7% Fib Ret Zone Bear Wave from pre-Lehman Top

Key Level 139

Bear Reversal Pattern Activated – hybryd M – Key Level 139-140 Zone March – June 2022

and

Bear Correction – Test 38.2% Fib Ret Zone Bull Wave from March 2020 Low – Covid Panic

( Weekly Candlestick Chart )

Key Level 109

Now dominating

Bulls Reactivation from 109 to 125 Key Level

with

June Bear Monthly Candlestick – Large Real Body

vs

July Bull Hammer Monthly Candlestick – Long Lower Shadow

August Bull Monthly Candlestick ( needed EOM confirmation )

and

MACD Monthly Buy Signal  vs Weekly Sell Signal

Bloomberg Commodity Index  Battlefield 

110 – 120   vs  125 -130

ATA Investment Conclusion

still special focus on

110 – 120   vs  125 -130

with

Fib Ret-s

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

with Next

Commodity News  vs Russia Moves  Ukraine War – Taiwan

War  and Global Economy News

Fed ECB PBoC Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

Europe US China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – August

always remember

Bloomberg Commodity Index – Energy Crisis and Inflation Key

Bloomberg Commodity Index Monthly  Charts

23.04.2012

CRB -2015

29.07.2015

CRB -7-2015

9.12.2015 

CRB -12-2015

9.04.2020 – EOD

CRB -M Line
CRB -M

20.10.2020 – before start European Session

18.10.2021 – EOD

Bloomberg Commodity Index Monthly  and Weekly Charts

26.08.2022 – EOW

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