CHF/JPY – Swiss Safe Haven Bull Trend Acceleration on Eurozone – European RISK OFF Rising Impact…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

SWISS FRANC  &  JAPAN YEN –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

First of All

SWISS FRANC

28.03.2013 – SWISS STORM…

&

SWISS FRANC vs JAPAN YEN

2019

22.12.2019 –  CHF/JPY – NEW EUROZONE STORM 2020 Open Scenario…

2020

15.01.2020 –  CHF/JPY – EUROZONE-ITALIAN STORM 2020 Rising Risk…

13.05.2020 – CHF/JPY – NEXT SWISS BULL STRIKE AHEAD in EUROZONE SHADOW …

24.10.2020 – CHF/JPY – When Time Will Come…

2021

24.05.2021 – CHF/JPY – SWISS BULLS FX ACTION…

11.07.2021 – CHF/JPY – DOUBLE SAFE HAVEN IMPACT…

2022

19.03.2022 – CHF/JPY – Swiss Safe Haven Bull Trend since 2016 Year with stricte European RISK OFF Implications of Russia-Ukraine War…

ATA Following…

First of All

Lehman Shadow2018

15.09.2018 – Financial Decade after Lehman Panic…

Italian Yield

24.04.2022 – ITALY BOND YIELD – “FEAR THE WALKING DEAD…”

USD/CHF

6.08.2022 – SWISS FRANC – USD/CHF – in the Secular Line of FX Fire…

EUR/CHF

7.08.2022 – SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – FX FIELD of FIRE under PARITY…

USD/JPY

30.07.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – Japan FX Strike Back – US Dollar Bearish Reversal Risk…

EUR/JPY

31.07.2022 – YEN – EUR/JPY – Japan FX SAFE HAVEN RISK OFF Action…

GOLD Spot 

23.07.2022 – GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

GOLD Futures

24.07.2022 – GOLD Futures – Golden Bulls Bears 10 Years War – Major Bullish Zone under Bearish Attack in USD FX Shadow…

SWISS FRANC  vs  JAPAN YEN Master  Motives

CHF – Swiss FX Safe Haven

Russia -Ukraine War , Taiwan , Eurozone Risks : Italy , Debt -Yields , Energy Crisis , Inflation , Stagflation Recession

SWISS FRAC vs JAPAN YEN Bull Trend , started in June July 2016 Year –  New ATH 2022 Year above Top 2015 Year – Key Level 138 Zone

First…show ex ante stricte European Rising Risk – RISK OFF Impact

Second… still confirm European and Eurozone High Risk

on

RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR Long Term RISK OFF Implications

especially European Energy Crisis

and

EUROZONE & EURO Structural Risk 

EUROZONE Countries Debt Problems – especially ITALY – ” Dead Country Walking ”

only with Central Help – ECB economic life-support machine…

SNB Hawkish vs BOJ Dovish Central Battle

SNB – Swiss Central Bank surprises markets – First Rate Hike since 2007

Rate Hike 50bps to -0.25% from -0.75% – 16th June 2022

BOJ – Bank of Japan – non stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE – Japan QE > European QE > US QE

with

Global Risk Off Waves stopped in June 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels 11.500-11.000  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 13.500

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  30.50029.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 33.000 

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  3.800-3.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 4.200

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and SNB vs BOJ

Fed

Fed Less Hawkish Strike Back – 50bps September Hike Rate Projection after Lower CPI PPI

Fed Pivot Scenario 2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook Reactivation

on US Inflation Peak Scenario

after

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB Hawkish September Meeting Outlook – 50bps September Hike Rate Projection

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis

SNB

SNB – Swiss Central Bank surprises markets – First Rate Hike since 2007

Rate Hike to -0.25% from -0.75% – 16th June 2022

BOJ

non stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Stopped  from Overheat Extreme Risk to Activated Bear Strike

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk – July Monthly Shooting Star Candlestick – Super Long Upper Shadow

after

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

with

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Test Lower 104.60 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

vs

Bulls Dynamic Strike from 104.60 Zone – Active Defense 104.78 56.4% Fib Ret Bull Wave from 101.30

March 2022 Low

Bullish Intraday ( H4 ) W Pattern – Key Level 104.63-65

Bullish Daily Inverted 2B Pattern – Key Level 105.00-05

Back > Key Levels  105 and 105.50

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  still Stopped for Now

Long Term Bearish Reversal Middle-Lower Risk

with

Present Active Domination

Bulls FX short term Strike > 105  from Latest  Lower 104.60 Zone

Key Levels  104.80 105 -105.50 – 106.-106.30  Zone in Smart Money FX Game

104.80 and 105.30  Zones Fib Ret Bull Wave from 101.30 Zone )

special focus on

Present Key Levels   104.80 105 -105.50 – 106.-106.30

( EOW 105.67 )

First…ATA from  19.03.2022

” Now still dominating

SWISS Bull Trend in Raising Channel

with Present Active

Swiss Bull Strike

Ahead of Test Upper Edge Bull Channel – Key Level 130 Zone “

Second…Present  SWISS FRANC vs JAPAN YEN  Secular Situation 

CHF/JPY LONG  TERM  SITUATION 

SWISS FRANC  vs  JAPAN YEN Secular View

CHF/JPY

( Monthly Charts )

First of All

New ATH 144 Zone – June 2022 after Earlier ATH 139-140 Zone – January 2015

( stricte 143.76 )

Swiss FX Bulls Domination

Long Term Pattern Inception – Two Ending Diagonals

Secular Ending Diagonal 2000 – 2022 Years Horizon

Upper Edge – Key Level 150 Zone

Long Term Ending Diagonal 2012 – 2022 Years Horizon

Upper Edge – Key Level 170 Zone

After…

First…Test 61.8% Fib Ret – Long Term Bull Wave Psychological Key Level 100 Zone

2012 – 2015 Years Horizon

Monthly Bull Reversal Candlesticks – Long Lower Shadows above Key Level 100

June – July 2016

Second…Activated Two Bulls Reversal Patterns

2019 – 2020 Horizon

First…Ending Diagonal 

Second… Inverted H&S

Rising above Neckline Inverted H&S – Key Level 117.30

Finally

Dynamic Swiss Bull Wave

with

Bullish Wave Last Acceleration

Bulls Strike above Upper Edge of Bull Channel

Rising above 2015 Year Top Key Level 139 to New ATH 144 Zone

Now still dominating

SWISS Bull Trend above 2015 Year Top Key Level 139 and Psychological 140

with Present Active

Swiss Consolidation

Swiss Range – Key Levels  139-140  – 144-145

( Now EOW 141.81 )

June Monthly Bull Candlestick – Large Real Body

August Monthly Bull Candlestick for Now ( needed confirmation EOM )

with still Active

MACD Monthly Buy Signal 

CHF/JPY FX Secular  Battlefield

CHF/JPY

139-140  – 144-145

ATA Investment Conclusion

CHF/JPY

Focus carefully on

Present Master Range

139-140  – 144-145

with New

EUROZONE SWISS – JAPAN Economy Inflation Data

CHF – JPY News

Russia Ukraine War, Taiwan , Eurozone – Italy Debt

SNB vs BOJ with Fed – ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

Switzerland Japan US  Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Decisions

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – August

CHF/JPY  Monthly Charts

20.12.2019 – EOW

CHF-JPY-M-S
CHF-JPY-M
CHF-JPY-M - Line

15.01.2020 – ( First Half European Session ) 

CHF-JPY-M-S
CHF-JPY-M
CHF-JPY-M - Line

13.05.2020 – ( First Phase US Session ) 

CHF-JPY - M

23.10.2020 – EOD

24.05.2021 – before Start European Session

9.07.2021 – EOW

18.03.2022 – EOW

12.08.2022 – EOW

 

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