SWISS FRANC – USD/CHF – in the Secular Line of FX Fire…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

SWISS FRANC  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

First of All

SWISS FRANC

2013

28.03.2013 – SWISS STORM…

&

2019

2.08.2019 –  SWISS FRANC – SWISS SPARK in F/X DARK…

27.08.2019 – SWISS FRANC – under Short Term RISK ON Pressure…

25.09.2019 –  SWISS FRANC – from RISK ON Hope to RISK OFF Pressure…

12.12.2019 –  SWISS FRANC – Bull – Bear Fight on Central Trinity FED, SNB, ECB Verdicts & Trump New Verbal Deal Euphory…

21.12.2019 –  SWISS FRANC – Strong Swiss Relative Strength…

2020 

4.01.2020 –  SWISS FRANC – IRAN Motive…

14.01.2020 –  SWISS FRANC – SWISS WARNING – No Falling on No IRAN War Motive…

13.05.2020 – SWISS FRANC – USD/CHF – COVID CALM…

2021

23.05.2021 – SWISS FRANC – USD/CHF – HELVETIC STRIKE after COVID CALM…

10.07.2021 – SWISS FRANC – USD/CHF – FX RISK OFF SHADOW DOMINATION…

ATA Following…

USD/JPY

2022

30.07.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – Japan FX Strike Back – US Dollar Bearish Reversal Risk…

EUR/JPY

2022

31.07.2022 – YEN – EUR/JPY – Japan FX SAFE HAVEN RISK OFF Action…

GOLD Spot 

2022

23.07.2022 – GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

GOLD Futures

2022

24.07.2022 – GOLD Futures – Golden Bulls Bears 10 Years War – Major Bullish Zone under Bearish Attack in USD FX Shadow…

SWISS FRANC   USD/CHF  Master  Present Motives

CHF – Swiss FX Safe Haven

Russia -Ukraine War , Taiwan , Energy Crisis , Inflation , Stagflation Recession Risk

Fed vs SNB Central Hawkish Battle

Fed Hawkish Cycle – Fed dynamic hikes interest rates

Last Hike 75bp to benchmark rate range of 2.25%-2.5% – 27th July 2022

SNB – Swiss Central Bank surprises markets – First Rate Hike since 2007

Rate Hike to -0.25% from -0.75% – 16th June 2022

with

Global Risk Off Waves stopped in June 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels 11.500-11.000  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike Fight in 13.000 13.300 Zone

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  30.50029.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike Fight in 32.800 – 33.000 Zone

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  3.800-3.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike Fight in 4.150 Zone

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and SNB

Fed

Fed Hawkish Strike Back – 75bps September Hike Rate Projection on Great US Job Data

Fed Pivot Scenario 2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook Canceled for Now

after

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Debt – Yield and Political Crisis

SNB

SNB – Swiss Central Bank surprises markets – First Rate Hike since 2007

Rate Hike to -0.25% from -0.75% – 16th June 2022

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Stopped  from Overheat Extreme Risk to Activated Bear Strike

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk – July Monthly Shooting Star Candlestick – Super Long Upper Shadow

after

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

with

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Test Lower 105 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

vs

Bulls Dynamic Strike from 105 Zone – Active Defense 105.30 50% Fib Ret Bull Wave from 101.30

March 2022 Low

Back > Key Level 106

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  still Stopped for Now

vs

Long Term Bearish Reversal Lower Risk

with

Present Active Domination

Bulls FX short term Dynamic Strike > 106  from Latest  Lower 105 Zone

Key Levels  106 -106.50 – 107.-107.20  Zone in Smart Money FX Game

( 105.30 and 105.50 Zones Fib Ret Last Two Bull Waves from 103.70 Zone and 101.30 Zone )

special focus on

Present Key Levels  106 -106.50 – 107.-107.20

( EOW 106.57 )

First…ATA from  10.07.2021

ATA Investment Conclusion

USD/CHF

Focus carefully on 

Present Master  Range

0.8750-0.88 0.90  vs  0.93-0.95-0.96

Second…Present  SWISS FRANC  Situation

SWISS FRANC  USD/CHF SECULAR & LONG TERM  SITUATION 

SWISS FRANC Secular & Long Term View

USD/CHF

Monthly View 

First of All

Canceled

Long Term Bear Patterns – Two H&S  

Bulls Strike Back above

Falling Neckline – Key Level  0.9520 ( Candlestick Chart )

Raising Neckline – Key Level  0.96 ( Line Chart )

with

Last  Bulls -Bear FX Hard Fight

Dynamic Bulls Move –  Back above Key Level  0.95

March 2022

Test

Parity Zone

Secular Bearish Trendline ( Line Chart )

May – June 2022

vs

Dynamic Bears Move –  Back from Key Level  1.00 Parity May June 2022

Pullback to Neckline for Now

Monthly May June July 2022 Bear Reversal Shooting Stars Candlesticks

Long Upper Shadows

Now dominating

FX BACK TO LONG TERM SWISS VERDUN 

Range 0.95 – 1.00 2014 – 2022 Years Horizon

New Bull Strike – Fight

from 0.95 Zone above Higher 0.96 Zone

Monthly August Bull Candlestick for Now

( needed Monthly EOM Conformation )

with

MACD Monthly still Active Buy Signal 

ATA Investment Conclusion

USD/CHF

Focus carefully on 

Present Master Range

0.95-0.96  vs  0.98-1.00

special on

Secular Bearish Trendline ( Line Chart )

Parity 1.00 Zone

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

with Next

USD and  CHF News

Russia Ukraine War , Taiwan and Inflation

Fed vs SNB and ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Switzerland Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – August

EUR/CHF ;  USD/CHF  ; GBP/CHF  &  SWISS FRANC FUTURES Charts 

2.08.2019 –  ( First Phase US Session )

EUR-CHF - M
USD-CHF - M
GBP-CHF - M
CHF FUT - M
CHF FUT - M - Line

USD/CHF  Daily & Intraday ( H4 )  Charts

25.09.2019 (  Before Start US Session )

USD-CHF - D

12.12.2019 (  First Half US Session )

USD-CHF - D

20.12.2019 – EOD 

USD-CHF - D

3.01.2020 – EOD 

USD-CHF - D

14.01.2020  ( Before Start US Session )

USD-CHF - D

USD/CHF  Monthly  Charts

13.05.2020  ( First Half European Session )

USD-CHF - M

USD-CHF - M - Line

21.05.2021 – EOW

9.07.2021 – EOW

5.08.2022 – EOW

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