YEN – EUR/JPY – Japan FX SAFE HAVEN RISK OFF Action…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

JAPAN YEN   – All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

JAPAN YEN FUTURES & EUR/JPY 

2018

17.11.2018 –  YEN – NONE NEW HARD JAPAN STRIKE…

2019 

17.01.2019 –  YEN – RISK OFF REVENGE…

10.05.2019 –  YEN after BOJ – KURODA & TRUMP with IRAN & NORTH KOREA STRIKES…

22.07.2019 –  YEN – JAPAN RISK OFF ACTION…

2.08.2019 –    YEN – ESCAPE to JAPAN SAFE HAVEN…

2022

13.03.2022 – YEN – EUR/JPY – FX RISK ON/OFF Hard Fight on Russia Ukraine War Impact…

ATA Following…

USD/JPY

2022

30.07.2022 – YEN – USD/JPY – Japan FX Strike Back – US Dollar Bearish Reversal Risk…

GOLD Spot 

2022

23.07.2022 – GOLD Spot – US Dollar FX Path vs Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation Mainstream Fear Trend in Fibonacci Golden Constellation Shadow …

GOLD Futures

2022

24.07.2022 – GOLD Futures – Golden Bulls Bears 10 Years War – Major Bullish Zone under Bearish Attack in USD FX Shadow…

JAPAN YEN Master Motives

EUR/JPY Hard Down

YEN RISK OFF Strike Back on Eurozone Recession Fears and Outlooks against ECB Hawkish Verdict

after Last

YEN RISK ON Strike vs RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA DEAFULT RISK – March 2022

Russia – Ukraine War – No Permanent RISK OFF Impact

YEN RISK ON Wave on ECB Hawkish Verbal Trend  vs BoJ Super Dovish – March – June 2022

with

Global Risk Off Waves stopped in June 2022

Bond Sell Off

Stocks Sell Off

Wall Street Risk Off Wave  – specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 ATH Top 16.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels 11.500-11.000  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 12.800

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  30.50029.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 32.000

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH Top 4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls Wave Action – still above Key Levels  3.800-3.600  May-June/22 Lows Zone

Latest Bull Strike > 4.000 

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB and BOJ

Fed

Fed Pivot Scenario – Fed Hawkish Central Path Stopped

2022 Less Hawkish and 2023 Dovish Outlook

Fed July 2022 Meeting Super Hawkish

2nd Fed Rate Hike 75bps

after

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB July 2022 Meeting More Hawkish

ECB More Hawkish Verdict – Rate Hike 50bps

July QT – APP End July 1 vs New TPI Tools Anti-Fragmentation

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Recession Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Political Crisis – Draghi Resignation

BOJ

non stop Super Dovish

Japan Mega QE

Japan QE > European QE > US QE

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Stopped  from Overheat Extreme Risk to Activated Bear Strike

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk – Monthly Shooting Star Candlestick – Super Long Upper Shadow

after

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

vs

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 with Latest Strike under Lower 106

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  still Stopped for Now

Long Term Bearish Reversal Risk

with

Present Active Domination

Bear FX short term Correction with Latest Test Lower 105.50 Zone

Key Levels  105.30-50 – 105.80  Zone in Smart Money FX Game

( Fib Ret Last Two Bull Waves from 103.70 Zone and 101.30 Zone )

special focus on

Present Key Levels  105.30-50 105.80  –  106-106.50

( EOM-July 105.83 )

First…ATA from  13.03.2022

” Finally Now Forming Domination

Bull Action Scenario

Triangle Pattern

Upper Edge Triangle – Key Level 133 Zone

Lower Edge Triangle – Key Level 120 Zone

2015 – Present 2022 Years Horizon

EURO Bears Bulls Waves inside Triangle

Fib Ret Constellation

Last EURO Bear Wave vs Test 50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave – Key Level 124 Zone

Present EURO Bull Contraction from 124 to 128 Zone

March Monthly Bullish Reversal Pattern – Hammer – Long Lower Shadow for Now

( needed confirmation EOM ) “

Second…Present  YEN  Situation 

YEN  SECULAR  SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL IN SECULAR ACTION  

EUR/JPY

First of All

Last High Zone 144 Zone – June 2022

( stricte 144.29 )

( Monthly Line and Candlestick Charts )

still Active Secular Bear Trendline from 1990 Top – Key Level 145 – 1990 – Present 2022 Years

After Activated

First…

EURO Secular Bear Reversal Process

EURO Bear Patterns

2B  – Key Level 160  1998 – 2008 Years Horizon

with

M  – Key Level 169  2007 – 2008 Years

EURO Long Term Bear Wave

Test Extreme Lower 95 Zone

Second…

EURO Secular Bull Reversal Scenario – FX Game Changer

EURO Bull Pattern –  W  – Key Level 95

2000 – 2012 Years Horizon

EURO Long Term Bulls Wave

Test Higher 150 Zone

Third…

EURO Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B  Key Level 145

2013 – 2014 Years

Fourth…

Bear Wave – Test Fib Ret 68.5% Long Bull Wave – Key Levels 110 – 111 Zone

June – July 2016 Year

Fifth…

Bull Wave outside Triangle Pattern

2015 – March 2022 Years Horizon

Bull Strike above Upper Edge Triangle – Key Level 133 Zone

March 2022 Year

vs

Test Fib Ext 68.5% – Key Level 144. Zone

First Long Term Bull Wave 2012 – 2014 Years

Monthly Candlestick Charts

Now dominating

Bear Dynamic Strike Back

First.. Back under 144 Key Level

Second…Bear Strike under Lower Edge – Key Level 140

Activated

M Pattern – 140 Key Level

and

June Monthly Bulls Candlestick – Upper Shadow

July Monthly Bears Candlestick – Large Real Body

MACD Monthly Bull Signal

with

Open Bull ScenarioPullback to Triangle Upper Edge

Future Test

Upper Edge  – Key Level 133 Zone

38.2% Fib Ret – Key Level 133 Zone

Bull Wave from 2020 Year Low

YEN Long Term Battlefield

130 133-134-135  vs  138 140 144

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Master  Key Levels  130 133-134-135  vs  138 140 144

Fib Ret Last Two Bull Waves – special 133 and 132 Key Levels

and

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

with Next

USD and YEN News

Russia Ukraine War and Inflation

Fed vs BOJ and ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Japan Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – August

JAPAN YEN FUTURES & EUR/JPY  Monthly Charts

16.11.2018 

EUR-JPY-M
EUR-JPY-W
EUR-JPY-D
YEN FUT
EUR-JPY-M Line

17.01.2019

yen fut
eur-jpy-m
eur-jpy-m line

10.05.2019 ( before US Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
YEN FUT - M - Line - Focus
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

22.07.2019 ( Starting Phase  US Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

2.08.2019 (   Half of  European Session )

YEN FUT - M - Line
EUR-JPY - M
EUR-JPY - M - Line

EUR/JPY  Monthly Charts

11.03.2022 – EOW

29.07.2022 – EOM

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