European Natural Gas Futures – Old Continent Energy Crisis – Next Phase – Winter Warning…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

European Natural Gas Futures – Back Today on ATA Research Radar

ATA Continuation of…

27.03.2022 – European Natural Gas Futures – from Energy Crisis 2021 to Russia War Impact 2022…

ATA Following…

US Natural Gas Futures

17.07.2022 – US Natural Gas Futures – Long Term Perspective – after First Panic Buying 2021 with Russia War Impact and Second Panic Buying 2022…

OIL

16.07.2022 – OIL – Secular Perspective – 2022 Year Bear Game Changer Action in Saudi Arabia Shadow…

European Natural Gas Futures  Major Motives

European Energy Crisis – European Gas Crisis 

Russia Gas RISK OFF Factor

Risk of Russia Gazprom Nord Stream Shutdown to destabilize Europe

No European Embargo for Russia Gas Import vs Europe Declarations Cut Gas Import from Russia

Nord Stream 1 Rapairs

Russia shuts down Nord Stream gas pipeline for repairs

Russia – Ukraine War Impact

in 

Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

War Shock Spark and Peak

Inflation Shock vs Inflation Peak Scenario

with

Central Banks special Fed Hawkish vs ECB Less Hawkish Scenarios in Smart Money Game

ATA Conclusion

Russia – Ukraine War – Geopolitical RISK OFF Impact on World Energy Prices

especially European Natural Gas Futures

and

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation above Key Level 11.500  May/22 Low Zone

Now Testing Higher Psychological Key Level 12.000

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation  > Key Level 30.500  May/22 Low Zone

Now Bull Strike > Higher Psychological Key Level 31.000

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation > Key Level 3.800  May/22 Low Zone

Now Bull Strike > Psychological Key Level 3.800

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Fed Hawkish Central Path non stop Active

Fed Hike Rate Hard Fight – Mega Hawkish vs Super Hawkish on July Meeting

100bps vs 75bps

Fed Fund Futures FOMC Meeting July

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 77.4% Probability – 14.07.2022

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 46.4% Probability – 15.07.2022 – Start the Day

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 29.1% Probability – 15.07.2022 – EOD

after

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB Less Hawkish – Rate Hike 25bps July QT – APP Program End July 1

ECB Emergency Meeting – Anti-Fragmentation New Tools Program

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Political Crisis – Draghi Resignation Risk on the Table

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Action vs Overheat Extreme Risk

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

vs

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 to Lower 108 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  New Stopped for Now

with

Present Active Domination

Bear FX short term Correction under 109 to Lower 108 Zone

Psychological Key Level 108 in Smart Money FX Game

special focus on

Present Key Levels  107.50-108  –  108.50-55 109-109.30

( EOW 107.98 )

First…ATA from  27.03.2022

” Finally…

Present Panic Buying Extreme High 230 EURO Zone

Temporary Bull Strike above

Psychological Key Level 200 EURO

Fib Ext Zone 210 EURO

vs

Hard Bear Contraction – Back to Psychological Key Level 100 EURO Zone

Test 56.4% Fib Ret Big Bull Wave – Key Level 101 EURO

ATA  European Natural Gas   Investment Conclusion

special focus on

Present Master Psychological Key Level  100 EURO

56.4% Fib Ret Big Bull Wave – Key Level 101 EURO

Second…Present  European Natural Gas Futures  Situation

European Natural Gas Futures  LONG TERM SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION  

First of All

After Activated

First…

Bear Reversal Pattern Monthly Candlestick Shooting Star – September 2018

Psychological Key Level 30 EURO ( stricte 29.50 )

Dynamic Bear Wave

from 30 EURO Zone to 3.50 EURO Zone

Second…

Bull Reversal Patterns

Engulfing Candlestick – June 2020

Inverted Ending Diagonal

from Test Lower Edge Key Level 3.65 EURO – May 2020

to Bull Strike above Upper Edge Key Level 11 EURO – September 2020

Bull Dynamic Wave

from Key Level 3.65 EURO – May 2020 to Key Level 100 EURO – September 2021

Third…

Horizontal Phase from September 2021 to February 2022

Dynamic Bulls Shot Up vs Bears Shot Down

Extreme High Zones : 130 EURO ; 180 EURO ; 130 EURO

October 2021 – December 2021 – February 2022

with

Two Panic Buying Extreme Highs

180 EURO Zone – December 2021

230 EURO Zone – March 2022

Temporary Bull Strike above

Psychological Key Level 200 EURO

Fib Ext Zone 210 EURO

and

Last Hard Bear Contraction – Back under Psychological Key Level 100 EURO Zone

Test 61.8 – 68.5% Fib Ret Big Bull Wave – Key Levels  90 – 75 EURO Zone

vs

Latest Bull Strike from 80 EURO Zone – Back above Psychological Key Level 100 EURO

Now dominating

Bull Wave Continuation above Higher Psychological Key Level 150 EURO

with

June Monthly Bull Candlestick – Large Real Body

vs

July Monthly Bear Reversal CandlestickShooting Star for Now

( needed EOM confirmation )

and

MACD Monthly still Active Buy Signal

ATA  European Natural Gas   Investment Conclusion

special focus on

Present Master Psychological Key Level  150 EURO

with

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

and Next

Natural Gas US EU Decisions vs Russia Natural Gas Moves with Ukraine War

War  and Global Economy News

Fed ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – July

always remember

Nautral Gas Prices – Energy Crisis and Inflation Key

European Natural Gas Futures  Monthly  Charts

24.03.2022 – EOD

15.07.2022 – EOW

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