OIL – Secular Perspective – 2022 Year Bear Game Changer Action in Saudi Arabia Shadow…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

OIL  –  All Time  on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

OIL – Long Term & Secular Perspective

2019 Last

15.12.2019 –  OIL – No Black Gold Ecstasy after OPEC OPEC+ & Aramco Double Super Impact…

2020 

5.01.2020 –  OIL – IRAN Black Gold Strike…

7.01.2020 –  OIL – Back under September 2019 Top vs IRAN Rising Risk…

13.01.2020 –  OIL – Dynamic Fall on No IRAN War Euphory…

9.03.2020 –  OIL – BLACK ABYSS…

2.04.2020 –  OIL – Black Gold Secular Perspective vs Present China Rescue Strike…

10.04.2020 – OIL – Secular View after Saudi-Russia Dust Down…

13.04.2020 – OIL – Secular Horizon vs OPEC+ Game of Interests with “Historic” Deal…

19.04.2020 –  OIL – Secular Perspective vs Mega Contango…

20.04.2020 –  OIL – Black Gold Waterfall striking Secular Trendline in Flash of Mega Contango…

25.04.2020 – OIL – Secular Perspective after Minsky Moment…

3.05.2020 –  OIL – Secular Horizon in Goldman Sachs Tactic Schizophrenia Shadow …

17.05.2020 –  OIL – Secular Horizon – Hitting Goldman Sachs Target…

7.06.2020 –  OIL – Secular Horizon – Bull Show…

23.08.2020 – OIL – Secular Horizon – Knocking on Black Floor…

5.09.2020 – OIL – Secular Horizon – Back to Black Line…

24.09.2020 – OIL – Hard Resistance Fighting…

5.10.2020 – OIL – No Black Bulls Power…

2021

17.07.2021 – OIL – Secular Perspective after 2020 Year Bull Game Changer…

2022

2.04.2022 – OIL – Secular Perspective from 2020 Year Bull Game Changer to 2022 Year Bear Game Changer in Play…

Present Master  OIL  Motives

Biden visit Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia agrees to boost Oil Production after Joe Biden visits Kingdom

Saudi Arabia will increase Oil Production to 13 million barrels a day

Energy Crisis

Russia – Ukraine War

US Russia Oil Ban

Biden Release of US Oil Reserves

European Union Russia Oil Ban

and

Inflaction Shock

Stagflation Risk

Recession Risk

Covid New Wave – China and Europe

Oil Perfect Smart Money Trend Reversal Action

Oil Bulls Market Phases

Bull Wave on Energy Crisis

Bull Acceleration Strike on Russia Invasion

Bull Panic Buying on Warnings of US Russia Oil Ban

First Bull Top Activated on US Ban of Russia Oil

Second Bull Top Activated on EU Ban of Russia Oil

Oil Bear Reversal 1st and 2nd Action

First…Perfect M Pattern Intraday H5 Key Level 130 USD Activated US Ban of Russia Oil

Mainstream Panic vs No Bull Strike>130

Second…Perfect 2B Intraday H4 Key Level 123 USD and Ending Diagonal 120 USD Zone

Activated EU Ban of Russia Oil

Mainstream Panic vs No Bull Strike>125-130

Oil Bear Wave

Last Bear Action after Top – EU Ban of Russia Oil on Recession Rising Risk

with

Latest Bulls vs Bear Hard Fight in Lower Psychological Key Level 90 USD Zone

ATA Conclusion

Present Active Factors for Oil Market

Global Energy Crisis Russia – Ukraine War US and EU Russia Oil Ban 

vs 

Biden Release of US Oil Reserves

Biden Visit in Saudi Arabia

in 

Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

War Shock Spark and Peak

Inflation Shock vs Inflation Peak Scenario

with

Central Banks special Fed Hawkish vs ECB Less Hawkish Scenarios in Smart Money Game

and

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle above  May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped vs Last RISK OFF Impact still Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation above Key Level 11.500  May/22 Low Zone

Now Testing Higher Psychological Key Level 12.000

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation  > Key Level 30.500  May/22 Low Zone

Now Bull Strike > Higher Psychological Key Level 31.000

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back Continuation > Key Level 3.800  May/22 Low Zone

Now Bull Strike > Psychological Key Level 3.800

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Fed Hawkish Central Path non stop Active

Fed Hike Rate Hard Fight – Mega Hawkish vs Super Hawkish on July Meeting

100bps vs 75bps

Fed Fund Futures FOMC Meeting July

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 77.4% Probability – 14.07.2022

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 46.4% Probability – 15.07.2022 – Start the Day

Fed Rate Hike 100bps 29.1% Probability – 15.07.2022 – EOD

after

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

ECB

ECB Less Hawkish – Rate Hike 25bps July QT – APP Program End July 1

ECB Emergency Meeting – Anti-Fragmentation New Tools Program

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Italy Political Crisis – Draghi Resignation Risk on the Table

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Action vs Overheat Extreme Risk

Bulls Dynamic Strike to New 20 Years High Zone 109.30

vs

Bears Activated Correction from 109.30 – back under 109 to Lower 108 Zone

New 2B Pattern 108.55  H4 Intraday and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern Daily

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( July High 109.30  New Stopped for Now

with

Present Active Domination

Bear FX short term Correction under 109 to Lower 108 Zone

Psychological Key Level 108 in Smart Money FX Game

special focus on

Present Key Levels  107.50-108  –  108.50-55 109-109.30

( EOW 107.98 )

First…ATA from  2.04.2022

” Finally…

Skyrocket and Panic Buying Apogeum

Bear Reversal Pattern Intraday ( Intraday H5 Chart )

Perfect M Pattern Intraday H5 Key Level 130 USD Activated Biden Ban of Russia Oil

Mainstream Panic vs No Bull Strike>130

Now dominating

Dynamic Bear Contraction – Back to Psychological Key Level 100 USD Zone

Shot Down from 130 USD Zone to Lower 100 USD Zone

Shooting Star March Monthly Candlestick Pattern – Mega Long Upper Shadow

Last Bear Weekly Candlestick

vs

MACD Monthly Weekly Buy Signals

OIL Present Battlefield

Present Oil Contract Serie  – CME  May 2022

65 9095   vs  100-115 120-125 USD

with

Present Master Psychological Key Level 100  USD 

&

ATA OIL Last Key Tweets

Second…Present  OIL Secular  Situation 

OIL SECULAR  SITUATION 

MARKET MODEL IN SECULAR ACTION  

Monthly View 

First of All

Major Oil Patterns even after  April –  CME May Fut 2020 Minsky Moment 

Main Secular 2 Falling Wedges

and

Long Term

Inverted Wedge  ( Line and Candlestick Charts )

with special

Pattern Inception 

&

Secular Bear Trendlines

Upper Edges Main Secular Falling Wedges

Key Levels 55 and 65 USD  ( Line Chart )

Key Level 60 USD ( Candlestick Chart )

of course with

Secular Major Lows 

OIL MAGIC TEN 

1986 – 10 USD Zone ( Low 9.75 )

1999 – 10 USD Zone ( Low 10.35 )

ATA OIL Secular Research

After

First…Activated

Inverted Wedge

Key Level 50 USD   ( Line and Candlestick Monthly Charts )

Main Secular 2 Falling Wedges

Key Levels 55 and 65 USD  ( Line Chart )

Key Level 60 USD ( Candlestick Monthly Chart )

Second…Canceled

M Pattern – Key Level  75 USD

with Activated

Inverted Ending Diagonal  ( Weekly Chart )

Higher Edge – Key Level 85 USD

Lower Edge – Key Level 65 USD

Dynamic Bull Wave

from 65 USD to 130 USD Zone

Bull Strike above 88.6% Fib Ret Secular Bear Wave

Key Level 125 USD Zone ( Candlestick Chart )

Finally…

Skyrocket and Panic Buying Apogeum

1ST and 2ND Test Fib Ret 88.6% – Key Level 125 USD Zone

Last long term Bear Wave from 2008 Year Top Key Level 150 USD Zone

1st and 2nd Bear Reversal Pattern Intraday ( Intraday H5 – H4 Chart )

First…M Pattern Intraday H5 Key Level 130 USD Activated US Ban of Russia Oil

Mainstream Panic vs No Bull Strike>130

Second… 2B Pattern Intraday H4 Key Level 123 USD

Rising Ending Diagonal Daily 120 USD Zone

Activated EU Ban of Russia Oil

Mainstream Panic vs No Bull Strike>125-130

M Pattern Weekly Key Level 120 USD Activated US and EU Ban of Russia Oil

Now dominating

Dynamic Bear Correction – Back under Psychological Key Level 100 USD 

Shot Down from 120-123 USD Zone to Lower 90 USD Zone

Back inside Monthly Rising Expanding Ending Diagonal ( Line Chart )

Higher Edge – Key Level 110 USD

Lower Edge – Key Level 90 USD

Shooting Star March Monthly Candlestick Pattern – Mega Long Upper Shadow

June and July Bear Monthly Candlesticks Lower Shadow for Now

Last Bear Weekly CandlestickLower Shadow

vs

Test 23.6% Fib Ret Long Term Bull Wave from 2020 Year Covid Panic Low – Key Level 90 USD Zone

Inverted 2B Pattern – Key Level 93 USD

( Weekly Chart )

Falling Ending Diagonal

( Daily H4 Charts )

with

MACD Monthly Buy Signals vs Weekly Sell Signal

OIL Present Battlefield

Present Oil Contract Serie  – CME  August 2022

65 9095   vs  100-115 120-125-130 USD

with

Present Major Psychological Key Levels 90 and 100  USD 

ATA  Investment  Conclusion 

Present Oil Contract Series  – CME  August 2022

Special Focus on

Present Major Psychological Key Levels 90 and 100  USD 

and

Fib Ret Last Big Bull Wave special 23.6% – 90 USD

with

Research Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick  Confirm or Cancel

New Oil News from Saudi Arabia

War Oil and Global Economy News

Fed ECB Verbal Strikes and Verdicts

Wall Street Strikes

US Europe China and Global Macro Economy News 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – July

by the Black Gold Way

always remember

Oil  – Key Pathfinder for Wall Street & Global Stock Market…

Oil – Energy Crisis and Inflation Key

OIL   Weekly , Daily  & Intraday- H5  Charts

13.12.2019 – EOW  (  Futures Present Active Series  59.77 USD ) 

OIL - W
OIL - D
OIL - H5

3.01.2020 – EOW 

OIL - W
OIL - D
OIL - H5

7.01.2020  (  First Half  US Session ) 

OIL - W
OIL - D
OIL - H5

13.01.2020  (  First Half  US Session ) 

OIL - W
OIL - D
OIL - H5

OIL   Weekly , Daily  & Intraday- H4  Charts

9.03.2020  (  First Half  US Session ) 

OIL - W
OIL - D
OIL - H4

OIL Monthly Charts

2.04.2020 (  before start  US Session )

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

9.04.2020 – EOD

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

13.04.2020 – ( before Start European Session ) 

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

17.04.2020 – EOD

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

OIL Monthly Charts

20.04.2020 –  OIL CME June  ( Start European Session )

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

21.04.2020 –  OIL CME May  – EOD  – MINSKY MOMENT

OIL - CME - M - May -2020

24.04.2020 –  OIL CME June  – EOD

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M
OIL - M - Focus

1.05.2020 –  OIL CME June  – EOD

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M
OIL - M - Focus

5.05.2020 –  OIL CME June  – EOD

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

5.06.2020 – EOW 

OIL - M - Line
OIL - M

21.08.2020 – EOW 

OIL - Secular - M - Line
OIL - Secular - M

4.09.2020 – EOW

Obrazek posiada pusty atrybut alt; plik o nazwie oil-secular-m-line.png
Obrazek posiada pusty atrybut alt; plik o nazwie oil-secular-m.png

24.09.2020 – Assian Session

Obrazek posiada pusty atrybut alt; plik o nazwie oil-m-line.png
Obrazek posiada pusty atrybut alt; plik o nazwie oil-m-focus.png

5.10.2020 – Asian Session

16.07.2021 – EOW

OIL   Monthly Weekly & Intraday- H5  Charts

1.04.2022 – EOW

OIL   Monthly Weekly Daily and Intraday H5-H4  Charts

15.07.2022 – EOW

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