LUMBER Futures – Secular View – Wood Price – US Housing Market Peak US Recession Risk Double Impact…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

LUMBER Futures   –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2019

18.04.2019 –  LUMBER Futures – Secular View – Back Deeper into the Market Woods…

2020

25.08.2020 – LUMBER Futures – Secular View – Wood Skyrocket like US TECH Skyrocket…

10.10.2020 – LUMBER Futures – Secular View – from Eden to Hell…

Lumber  Master Motives

US Housing Market Fed RISK OFF Impact

US Housing Market Bubble Crash Risk

US Housing Market Peak Risk and Cooling

US Housing Market Cooling Process

War Shock Spark and Peak

Inflation Shock vs Inflation Peak Scenario

Stagflation Risk

Recession Risk

with

Central Banks special Fed and ECB Hawkish vs Less Hawkish Scenarios in Smart Money Game

and

Wall Street specially Nasdaq Big Tech RISK OFF Impact still Stopped for Now

vs

Bulls Fight – Strikes

on

Extreme Fear created by Mainstream

Main Warns Factors

Fed Rates Hike Cycle

Fed – QT – Quantitative Tightening – Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Stagflation Recession Fear with Ukraine War RISK OFF Impact

Investment Conclusion

Wall Street Volatility and RISK ON/OFF  Battle in May – June Lows Zone Continuation

on

Mainstream Bearish Impacts and Projections

in Inflation Stagflation Recession and Fed Hawkish Shadows

with

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 56.4% Fib Ret 11.100 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back > Key Level 11.500  May/22 Low Zone

DJIA S&P500

DJIA 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  37.000 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test – 38.2% Fib Ret 29.800  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back > Key Level 30.500  May/22 Low Zone

S&P500 

Bear Hard Wave from January 2022 ATH  4.800 Zone Stopped for Now

Fibonacci Constelation

Test 44.7% Fib Ret 3.650  Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

Finally for Now

Bulls New Strike Back > Key Level 3.800  May/22 Low Zone

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Fed Less Hawkish on Inflation Peak Rising Probability

Fed Hawkish Central Path

Fed Fund Futures FOMC Meeting July

Fed Rate Hike 75bps 82.6% Probability

after

Fed June 2022 Meeting  Super Hawkish

Fed Rate Hike 75bps – First Time since 1994

Active Taper – QT $47.5B/M Started June 1st

Fed Less Hawkish Outlook vs July 75bps still in Play

ECB

ECB Emergency Meeting – Anti-Fragmentation New Tools Program start July 1st

ECB June Meeting Hawkish Outlook still Active

Rate Hike 25bps July QT – APP Program End July 1

ECB Eurozone Danger Dilemma

Lagarde Hawkish vs Stagflation Fragmentation Bond Yield Risk

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Action

Bulls Strike Back – Hard Fight > 105

vs

Bears still Hold Positions  under June High 105.78

still above

103 Key Level Zone Covid 2020 Year Top

104 Key Level Zone European Debt Crisis 2016 Year Top

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave ( June High 105.78 Latest July High 105.63 ) Stopped for Now

with

Present Active Domination

Bull Bear FX short term Fight

Active  Key Level 105

special focus on

Present Key Levels  105 and 105.50

( EOW 105.12 )

First…ATA from  10.10.2020

Last Bear Run

Freefall from 1000 USD Zone to 500 USD Zone

ATA Investment Conclusion

Special Focus on

Present Active Psychological Key Level 500 USD

Second…Present Lumber Futures Situation

LUMBER Futures  SECULAR SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

Long Term Horizon 

Monthly Charts

First of All

ATH 1700 USD Zone – May 2021

( stricte 1711.20 USD )

non stop Domination

Long Term Pattern

Inverted Ending Diagonal – Expanding Diagonal – Ascending Broadening Wedge

Active since post Lehman Crash Low 2009 Year

After

Perfect Test Rising Trendline  Lower Edge of Diagonal

Key Level 280 USD Zone  ( Low 250 USD Zone )

Back above Psychological Key Level 300 USD 

Activated Bull Reversal Pattern 

Inverted 2B – Key Level 305 USD 

March – April 2020

Bull Skyrocket Wave  from 250 USD to 1000 USD  Zone 

Bulls Move above Upper Edge of Diagonal – Key Level 800 USD

April – September 2020

Bear Correction from 1000 USD to 500 USD  Zone 

Back inside of of Diagonal

Test Fib Ret 68.5% – 490 USD Zone

September – October 2020

and

Bull Skyrocket Wave Continuation from 500 USD to 1700 USD  Zone 

First… Test and Bull Strike above Upper Edge of Diagonal – Key Level 820 USD

Second…Bull Wave Cont. above 1000 USD and 1500 USD

Finally…

Test Fib Exts Node  1650 – 1700 – 1750 USD Zone – stricte 1700 USD Zone

Secular Bull Wave started 1984 Year

All Long Term Bull Waves started 2009, 2015 Years and 2020 Year

October 2020 – May 2021

and

Dynamic Bear Correction from 1700 USD to 450 USD  Zone 

Back inside of of Diagonal

Test Fib Ret 68.5% – 490 USD Zone

May – September 2021

Activated

Bulls Reversal Pattern – Inverted 2B – Key Level 500 USD

October 2020 – September 2021

Bull Strike from 500 USD to 1500 USD Zone 

September 2021 – March 2022

Finally…

Activated

Long Term Bearish Hybryd Pattern

M – Psychological Key Level 1500 USD 

May 2021 – March 2022

and

Bear Dynamic Wave from 1500 USD to 500 USD Zone 

March – June 2022

Now dominating

Bull Correction from 500 USD to 670 USD Zone  June 2022

June Monthly Bull Candlestick  – Hammer Pattern –  Long Lower Shadow

MACD Monthly Sell Signal 

with

Future Scenarios

Open Bullish Scenario

Psychological Key Level 500 USD Strong Support – No Break Down

Bull Wave from 500 USD to 1000 USD Zone  – Upper Edge of Diagonal

Open Bearish Scenario

Psychological Key Level 500 USD Support Break Down

Bear Wave from 500 USD to 300-330 USD Zone  – Lower Edge of Diagonal

Lumber Futures    Battlefield

500 vs 650-750 USD

ATA Investment Conclusion

special focus on 

Present Psychological 500 vs 650-750 USD Active Zone

June Monthly Candlestick Hammer Pattern

Confirmation or Cancel

Fibonacci Ret special Last Bear Wave

Research New Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick

US Housing Market News

US and Global Economy News

Wall Street and Commodity Market Strikes

Fed Powell Actions 

Governments & Central Banks Strikes 

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – July

Lumber Futures  Monthly  Charts

18.04.2019

Lumber M - Secular - Line
Lumber M - Secular
Lumber M - Secular Focus - Fib Ret

24.08.2020 – EOD 

Lumber M - Secular - Line
Lumber M - Secular - Fib Ret

9.10.2020 – EOD

1.07.2022 – EOW

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