DB Agriculture Fund – Secular View – Bulls Strange Action Fight vs No Run on Food Inflation Fever…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

DB Agriculture Fund – Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2020

14.04.2020 – DB Agriculture Fund – Secular View in USD, Climate & Coronavirus Shadows …

21.10.2020 – DB Agriculture Fund – Secular View – Bulls Strike Back…

2021

18.10.2021 DB Agriculture Fund – Secular View – Negative Divergence -Bulls Strike Stopped since May vs Mainstream Media non stop creating Food Inflation Panic…

DB Agriculture Fund  Present Main Motives

Global Shocks Era and Climate Changes

Food Shock

Inflation Shock

Stagflation Risk

Russia – Ukraine War

with

Wall Street and Global Indexes – Bulls Dynamic Contraction Stopped vs still above War Low Zones

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

USD F/X  Global Master Currencies Pathfinder

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone  Reactivation Risk

after

Test 38.2% Fib Ret 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

with

Bull Dynamic Contraction  from 13.000 still Stopped for Now

vs

Bear Contraction Continuation  from 15.300 Zone to 14.300 Zone

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones Reactivation Risk

with

Bull Dynamic Strikes still Stopped for Now

from War Low Zones DJIA 32.000 Zone S&P500 4100 Zone

to Higher Key Levels DJIA 35.300 Zone  S&P500 to 4600 Zone

vs

Bear Contractions Continuation

DJIA from 35.300 Zone vs above 34.500 

S&P500 from 4.600 Zone under 4.500 

and

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster and Harder Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

Fed Powell More Hawkish

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US and Global Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

More Risk Scenario

Structural Stagflation Risk

Not Just Stagflation – Structural Stagflation

with still Active

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Debt Rising

and

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

with

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Powell and other Fed Members More Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

QT Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Rapid Taper

ECB

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Dovish vs Hawkish Fight still Active

ECB Meeting Hawkish

ECB Lagarde Dovish

ECB Lagarde still Active Central Schizophrenia

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Active vs Bear Reversal Strike

after

Bull Reversal Pattern – W Intraday H5 Key Level 97.80

USD Bull Strike Continuation  from 97.80 Zone to above Master Psychological Key Level 100  

vs

Present Bear Short Term Contraction from Key Level 100.20 to 99.80

on 

Fed Extreme Hawkish Predictions Explosions

Fed Hawkish Mainstream Panic

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Domination Stopped for Now

Bear Reversal Candlestick Patterns

Intraday H5 Spinning Top

Daily Shooting Star

FX Bear Correction Action

Now dominating

Bear Short Term Correction

Bull  Bear Intraday Fight in 99.80 Zone

Active Zone Key Levels  99.80  –  100

( EOW 99.79 )

First…ATA from  18.10.2021

” Now dominating

Bull Wave Stopped and Consolidation

Testing Fib Ret 30% Bear Wave started March 2011

with

Short Term Up vs Down Strikes in Master Psychological Key Level  20  USD

special focus on

Present Master Psychological Key Level  20  USD

with

Fib Ret Both Bear Waves

Second…Present  DB Agriculture Fund  Situation

AGRICULTURE FUND  SECULAR PERSPECTIVE

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN  SECULAR  ACTION  

Monthly View 

First of All  All Time

Present Active  Range 

20 – 23 25 USD ( Line Chart )

20 – 23 25 USD ( Candlestick Chart )

with

Master Psychological Key Level  20  USD

changed

from Resistance ( October 2020 )

to Support ( April 2022 )

ATA DB Agriculture Fund  Secular Research

After

First…Created

Major All Time High Top before Lehman

Second…Activated

Major Bear Reversal Pattern – M  – 2008 year 

2B  Pattern – 2011 year

Secular

Bear Channel  ( Line Chart )

Ending Diagonal ( Candlestick Chart )

and

Bull Wave  started November 2020

above

Upper Edge Bear Channel  Key Level 15  USD 

Upper Edge Ending Diagonal Key Level 15.30  USD 

with

Bull Wave Stopped and Consolidation May – December 2021

Test  Psychological Key Level 20 USD Zone

Now dominating

Bull Wave Continuation

Move > Psychological Key Level 20 USD

Present

Testing Higher Key Level 23 USD Zone

Fighting in Fib Ret 38.2%  22 USD Zone Bear Wave started March 2011

Short Term Up vs Down Strikes in Key Levels 22 – 23  USD

and

February March Monthly Shooting Stars – Upper Shadows

April Bull Monthly Candlestick – needed Confirmation – EOM

MACD Monthly Buy Signal 

Ahead of

Bulls Higher Targets

Key Level 23 USD Zone Key Lows 2008 – 2010 Years Key Tops 2015 – 2016 Years

( StockCharts Chart )

Fib Ret 44.7% 50%  23 – 24.50 USD Zone Bear Wave started March 2011

Fib Ret 38.2% 25 USD Zone Bear Wave started March 2008

( Candlestick Chart )

DB Agriculture Fund   Battlefield

20 – 23 25 USD

ATA Investment Conclusion

special focus on

Present Active Zone 20 – 23 25 USD

Master Support Key Level  20  USD

with

Fib Ret Both Bear Waves

Bear Wave started March 2011

Bear Wave started March 2008 Lehman

and

Research New Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick

with focus on

Agro Food – Macro – War News

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – April

DB Agriculture Fund   Monthly  Charts

9.04.2020 – EOD

Agriculture - M - Line
Agriculture - M

20.10.2020 – EOD

15.10.2021 – EOD

8.04.2022 – EOW

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