US 10Y BOND YIELD – Fed Super Hawkish Fever…

FIRST OF ALL

– ATA MIND OVER MARKET –

US 10Y BOND YIELD  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation…

2018

10.01.2018  –  US BONDS – END(LESS) SUMMER MOVE ON…

30.01.2018  – US 10Y BOND YIELD WARNING…

14.02.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – The Show Must Go On…

25.04.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Who Wants to Live Forever…

16.05.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Mainstream Media Panic…

27.05.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – PERFECT AMBUSH…

15.09.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Strategic Attack on Psychological 3%…

4.11.2018  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – GAME CHANGER in Action…

18.11.2018 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – TACTICAL SAFE BACK…

2019

16.01.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Back to Neutral Zone…

1.04.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – NO MEGA SAFE ESCAPE…

29.05.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Awakening & Run to Safe Haven…

22.06.2019 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – from DEBT RUSH to DEBT AMBUSH…

7.07.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – AMBUSH PROBABILITY RISING …

13.07.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – AMBUSH SCENARIO GOES ON…

2020 

10.05.2020 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Bulls vs Bears Fighting in Debt Abyss…

16.05.2020 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – No Bear Strike on US Macro Most Disaster in over 100 Years…

5.06.2020 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Back from US Debt Abyss…

8.08.2020 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Waiting for Debt Godot…

28.08.2020 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – POWELL(LESS)…

2021

7.01.2021 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – PERFECT BULL WAVE…

17.02.2021 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – MASTER DEBT TEST AHEAD…

22.02.2021 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – ” WHO WANTS TO PRINT FOREVER “

2.03.2021 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – Debt Smart Money Perfect Action…

17.03.2021 – US 10Y BOND YIELD – Super Touchdown Ahead of Fed…

16.07.2021 US 10Y BOND YIELD – Perspective after March Super Touchdown…

with

ATA Following …

15.09.2018 – Financial Decade after Lehman Panic…

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Major Motives

US 10Y Bond Yield Dynamic Bull Wave Continuation 

on

Fed Mega Hawkish Scenario

Fed March Rate Hike

Dynamic QT – Start May

Dynamic Rate Hikes – Next FOMC Meetings

with

Mainstream Fed Hawkish Panic

and

Russia – Ukraine War

Inflaction Shock

Stagflation Risk

with

Wall Street and Global Indexes – Bulls Dynamic Contraction Stopped vs still above War Low Zones

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

USD F/X  Global Master Currencies Pathfinder

SECULAR MOTIVES

Wall Street

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

Nasdaq 100 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone  Reactivation Risk

after

Test 38.2% Fib Ret 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

with

Bull Dynamic Contraction  from 13.000 still Stopped for Now

vs

Bear Contraction Continuation  from 15.300 Zone to 14.300 Zone

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones Reactivation Risk

with

Bull Dynamic Strikes still Stopped for Now

from War Low Zones DJIA 32.000 Zone S&P500 4100 Zone

to Higher Key Levels DJIA 35.300 Zone  S&P500 to 4600 Zone

vs

Bear Contractions Continuation

DJIA from 35.300 Zone vs above 34.500 

S&P500 from 4.600 Zone under 4.500 

and

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster and Harder Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

Fed Powell More Hawkish

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US and Global Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

More Risk Scenario

Structural Stagflation Risk

Not Just Stagflation – Structural Stagflation

with still Active

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Debt Rising

and

FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS

2021 – 2022  Horizon

– FINANCIAL MARKETS BUBBLE WARNINGS & BLACK SWANS vs WHITE SWANS… –

with

CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB

Fed

Powell and other Fed Members More Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting Hawkish

Rate Hike 0.25% and Hawkish Dynamic Rate Hikes 2022 Outlook

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

QT Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Rapid Taper

ECB

ECB vs Russia-Ukraine War

Dovish vs Hawkish Fight still Active

ECB Meeting Hawkish

ECB Lagarde Dovish

ECB Lagarde still Active Central Schizophrenia

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Active vs Bear Reversal Strike

after

Bull Reversal Pattern – W Intraday H5 Key Level 97.80

USD Bull Strike Continuation  from 97.80 Zone to above Master Psychological Key Level 100  

vs

Present Bear Short Term Contraction from Key Level 100.20 to 99.80

on 

Fed Extreme Hawkish Predictions Explosions

Fed Hawkish Mainstream Panic

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Domination Stopped for Now

Bear Reversal Candlestick Patterns

Intraday H5 Spinning Top

Daily Shooting Star

FX Bear Correction Action

Now dominating

Bear Short Term Correction

Bull  Bear Intraday Fight in 99.80 Zone

Active Zone Key Levels  99.80  –  100

( EOW 99.79 )

First of All…ATA from 15.09.2018 

– Financial Decade after Lehman Panic… –

” ATA Strategic Conclusion

NEXT CRISIS

will be

GLOBAL DEBT ARMAGEDDON…!!! ” 

First…ATA from  16.07.2021

” Now dominating

Dynamic Bear Contraction from Secular Bear Trendline – 1.80% Zone

Back under Psychological Key Level 1.50% 

with

Present Testing Lower Psychological Key Level 1.30% Zone

Second…Present  US 10Y BOND YIELD  Situation

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

First of All

after Activated

First…

Long Term 2B Bear Reversal Pattern

Psychological Key Level 3.00% 

2014 – 2018 Year Horizon

stricte

US 10Y Bond Yield –  Bull Trap – Perfect Ambush 

Second…

Bearish US Yield  Scenario 

Bear Wave

with

Test 0.30% Key Level Zone 

( stricte 0.318% )

2020 March

Third…

Perfect Touchdown stricte Old Secular Bear Trendline

Bull Contraction to Psychological Key Level 1.80% Zone

2021 March

( stricte 1.776% )

Fourth…

Bear Contraction to Lower Master Psychological Key Level 1% Zone

Test 44.7% Fib Ret Key Level 1.12 Zone Bull Wave March 2020 – March 2021

Monthly Close > 38.2% Fib Ret – Key Level 1.21 Zone

Monthly Bull Reversal PatternM Key Level 1.13 Zone

( stricte 1.128 1.127 )

June – July 2021

Now dominating

Dynamic Bull Wave  above  Old and New Secular Bear Trendline – 2.55% Key Level

Bull Move > New Secular Bear Trendline  needed Conformation – EOM

with

Present Testing Higher  Key Level 2.70% Zone

Ahead of Higher

Fib Ext First Bull Wave March 2020 – March 2021 2.77 3.00 3.30 Zones

Fib Ret Bear Wave October 2018 – March 2020 3.00 3.30 Zones

and

MACD Monthly Buy Signal

US Yield Secular Term Picture

showing

Hard Dynamic Stopped of Secular Bear Scenario Domination 

Dynamic Rasing US Yield

with

Activated Bull Reversal Pattern – Inverted 2B – Key Level 1.50% Zone

2012 – 2016 – 2021 Years Horizon

and

Break for Now New Secular Bear Trendline

What Most Importnat

in the Wider Market Perspective 

still dominating

Secular Bear Channel 

Bull Move > New Secular Bear Trendline  needed Conformation – EOM

Long Term Game Changer

First.. No Back under New Secular Bear Trendline – 2.55% Key Level

Bull Hard Strike above Master Higher Key Level 3.00%

always remember

Yield Bull Trap 2018 Year Scenario

Broken  Old Secular Bear Trendline – 2.50% Key Level

Ended by Perfect Ambush – Bull Trap  in Psychological Key Level 3.00% Zone

Finally Canceled

Long Term Bull Reversal and New Bull Market Scenario

ATA Research Conclusion

special focus on

Present Active Master  Zone 2.50% – 3.00 3.30%

Old Secular Bear Trendline –  Key Level 2.50%

Tops Zone 2013 and 2018 Year Key Levels 3.00% – 3.30%

ATA  Research  still Active Thesis  –  US 10Y BOND YIELD  Master Trigger

Now  still Most  depends  of…

Fed & Powell Strikes  with  US Macro Figures 

and of course

War News

US 10Y Bond Yield  Battlefield

2.50% – 3.00 3.30%

ATA Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on

Present Active Master  Zone 2.50% – 3.00 3.30%

Research New Pattern Classical  –  Candlestick

New Fed Actions  &  US Macro 

never forget

Next US DEBT Strike can move  others…

First…DEBT MARKETS

Second…WALL STREET

Finally…GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET 

with

NEW GOLDEN RUSH…

and of course

Future Final Smart Money Reaction…

First…EOM – April

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Big Picture – Monthly Charts

10.01.2018

Your new TVC.png

30.01.2018

Your new TVC

14.02.2018

Your new TVC (5)

25.04.2018

Your new TVC (5)

16.05.2018

Your new TVC (4)

25.05.2018

Your new TVC (7)

14.09.2018

US BONDS

2.11.2018

US BONDS

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Big Picture – Monthly  & Daily Charts 

16.11.2018

US BONDS - M
US BONDS - M - 1
US BONDS - D

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Big Picture – Monthly , Weekly & Daily Charts 

16.01.2019

us bonds - m
us bonds - w
us bonds - d

1.04.2019

US Yield - M
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

29.05.2019

US Yield - M
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

21.06.2019

US Yield - M
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

5.07.2019

US Yield - M
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

12.07.2019

US Yield - M
US Yield - M - Focus
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Big Picture – Monthly , Weekly & Daily Charts 

8.05.2020

US Yield - M
US Yield - M - Focus
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

15.05.2020

US Yield - M
US Yield - M - Focus
US Yield - W
US Yield - D

US 10Y BOND YIELD  Big Picture – Monthly  Charts

4.06.2020 – EOD 

US Yield - M - Line
US Yield - M

7.08.2020 – EOD

US Yield - M - Line
US Yield - M

27.08.2020 – Assian Session

US Yield - M - Line
US Yield - M - Focus

6.01.2021 – EOD

16.02.2021 – EOD

22.02.2021 – before European Session Start

1.03.2021 – Assian Session

17.03.2021 – before Start European Session

16.07.2021 – European Session Start Phase

8.04.2022 – EOW

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