SWISS FRANC – Back Today on ATA Research Radar
ATA Continuation of…
First of All
SWISS FRANC
2013
28.03.2013 – SWISS STORM…
&
2019
2.08.2019 – SWISS FRANC – SWISS SPARK in F/X DARK…
27.08.2019 – SWISS FRANC – under Short Term RISK ON Pressure…
25.09.2019 – SWISS FRANC – from RISK ON Hope to RISK OFF Pressure…
12.12.2019 – SWISS FRANC – Bull – Bear Fight on Central Trinity FED, SNB, ECB Verdicts & Trump New Verbal Deal Euphory…
21.12.2019 – SWISS FRANC – Strong Swiss Relative Strength…
2020
4.01.2020 – SWISS FRANC – IRAN Motive…
14.01.2020 – SWISS FRANC – SWISS WARNING – No Falling on No IRAN War Motive…
13.05.2020 – SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – EUROZONE VIRUS…
2021
25.02.2021 – SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – ESCAPE from SWISS SAFE HAVEN…
23.05.2021 – SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – SWISS SAFE HAVEN BACK WARNING…
9.07.2021 – SWISS FRANC – EURO/CHF – SWISS SAFE HAVEN STRIKE…
SWISS FRANC EUR/CHF Master Present Motives
SWISS FRANC Safe Haven Bull Action
with
EURO Hard RISK OFF FX Double Impact
Escape from EUROZONE –EURO – Russia Ukraine War Eurozone Stagflation Rising Risk ECB Dovish
Inflow to USD FX Area – US – Fed Hawkish Ahead of March Rate Hike
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
USD F/X Global Master Currencies Pathfinder
RUSSIA UKRIANE WAR & RUSSIA ECONOMY COLLAPSE WARNS
Russia Ukraine War – Russia Invasion
Russia Junk Rating S&P Moody’s Fitch Triple Strike
Russia Economy Crash Crisis Recession Collapse Warnings
Russa Asset ( Rubel Bonds ) under SELL OFF Pressure
MOEX Closed – London LSE Russian Stocks Financial Extermination
West US EU SWISS Sanctions
“Nuclear Option” – cutting Russia SWIFT Access – selected Banks for Now
US Sanctions on Russia Central Bank – CBR
The Bank of Russia CBR Emergency Meeting
CBR raises key rate to 20% from 9.5%
SECULAR MOTIVES
Wall Street
Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN Stopped
Nasdaq 100 Nasdaq Comp.
Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone Stopped for Now
after
Test 38.2% 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low
with
Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fighting in 13.800 – 14.000 Zone
DJIA S&P500
Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones Stopped for Now
Present Active Bull Bear Dynamic Fighting
and
Global Inflation Shock
special in Eurozone US and EM
US Inflation Shock
Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed
Fed Faster Rate Hikes
Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s
Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates
4.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 98.8% Probability
vs
25.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 76% Probability and 0.50% 24% Probability
18.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 64.4% Probability and 0.50% 35.6% Probability
11.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.50% Action High 93.8% Probability
7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs
Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario
Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario
with
US and Global Stagflation Fears
STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream
clear example
Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror
with
Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by Main Central Banks
Global Debt Rising
BUBBLE WARNINGS
BofA – Endgame Begins
Global Rate Shock Has Triggered Tech Wreck, Recession Countdown Systemic Event
JPMorgan Warns
S&P Fair Value Is 2,500 I f Inflation Shocks Do Not Fade Away
Jim Grant – Fed Warns
The Fed – Speculator on the Wrong Side of the Market
Goldman Sachs Bond Market “Jonestown” Delusion Territory Warns
$100T of the planet’s wealth is positioned in bonds sub 2% in yield with inflation normalizing this cycle at 3-4% vs 1-2% post Lehman
Bill Ackman Warning
We’re in a “Classic Bubble” that’s “Fueled by The Fed”
Goldman Boss Solomon Warns
Market Greed Is outpacing Fear
Rickards New Great Depression Warning
No Full Recovery until 2045
Not Recover from Pandemic fully until 2045 or later in Terms of
Savings, Consumption, Disinflation, Low Interest Rates, Low Growth
Michael Burry Wall Street Madness
Michael Burry Blasts Fed, SEC Over Most Speculative, Overvalued, Geopolitically-Challenged Market In Decades
Larry Summers Warns
Central Banking Blast
Economic Stagnation & Japanization
Michael Snyder Warns
They Have Lost Control – Our Destination Is Economic Collapse
Stan Druckenmiller – This Bubble Is in Everything
Warns Crypto, Meme Stocks, Bonds are in Bubble
Peter Schiff Warns of Irrational Exuberance in the Stock Market Casino
Stanley Druckenmiller Warns Stock Market is in an ‘Absolute Raging Mania’
Volatility Storm Rising Risk
” Sugar High ” Over – Nomura Warning
US Economy Has Entered Slowdown Phase
Gartman The Bull Market Has Ended And The Bear Market Has Begun
Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror
Roubini Dr.Doom Warns Stagflationary Debt Crisis
Jim Rogers Warns – Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime
Six Largest Wall Street Banks Wall Street Red Alerts
Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.
“Red Alert” Warnings on the US Stock Market
BofA Warns Stagflationary Hell
Only The Biggest Ever Bubble Delaying A Catastrophic Recession
” No Palce to Hide ” UBS Warning
Roubini ‘Dr. Doom’ Mega Warning
‘Train Wreck’ Stock Market Crash
Stagflationary Debt Crisis
10-year Depression is coming… investors far too confident about a possible recovery…
Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Warning
” Epic Bubble ”
“Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warning
” Mother of All Crashes ”
Rob Subbaraman Nomura
Cassandra Warning Model
Palantir Gold Bet Warning
Preparing for Future More Black Swans
BLACK SWANS
Main CENTRAL BANKS -Biggest ever Black Swans
Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System
vs
Coronavirus or Russia Invasion “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger
CENTRAL MOTIVE Fed vs ECB
Fed
Powell Hawkish Prediction
Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s
Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates
4.03.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 98.8% Probability
7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs
Strong Hawkish Perspective
Dynamic Rate Hikes
Balance Sheet Rundown
Fed Taper
ECB
ECB special Dovish after Russia-Ukraine War Escalation
ECB Lagarde Central Schizophrenia
Now Dovish vs Meeting Hawkish
ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery
European QE > US QE
ECB No Taper for Now
Eurozone Rates Time Game
European QE Story
USD FX MASTER TRIGGER
( DXY Futures )
Dollar Index
Bull Long Term Wave Back to Bull Track
USD Panic Buying on Russia Ukraine War Escalation – West Hard Sanctions
Bulls Dynamic Contraction from 96.50 Zone to 98.80 Zone
Cancel Bear Reversal Pattern 2B – Key Level 97.30
ATA Conclusion
Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Reactivation
Now dominating
Bull Dynamic Wave from 96.50 Zone to to 98.80 Zone
vs
Yesterday Bear Intraday Contraction – Back to 98.50
Active Zone Key Levels 98.50 – 98.80
( EOW 98.49 )
First…ATA from 9.07.2021
” After
Test 38.2% Fib Ret Last Long Term Bear Wave
and
Test Upper Edge – Key Level 1.1150
Bear Reversal Pattern Strike
Inverted Ending Diagonal in Action
Swiss Contraction under Psychological Key Level 1.10
Now dominating
Bear Strike under Lower Edge – Key Level 1.09
Inverted Ending Diagonal “
Second…Present SWISS FRANC Situation
SWISS FRANC EUR/CHF SECULAR & LONG TERM SITUATION
ATA MIND OVER MARKETS
The Hardest is to be Patient
Trend is Your Friend
Fibonacci Ext and Ret shows Master Levels ex ante
Charts Worth more than 1000 Words
Charts have No Temperature
Charts always show Reversal Pattern First ex ante
Bullish Bearish Divergences – Hidden Key to Reversal
Markets Never Wrong vs Often Mistaken
Hope or Fear is Not a Strategy
Follow the Trendlines Not the Headlines
Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal
Invest – Trade vs Don’t Forecast
Secular/Long Term View shows the Truth
ATA MARKET MODEL
First…Market Motive…
Second…Market Technical Pattern…
First…Key Motives
above in this text…
Second…Market Technical Patterns
SWISS FRANC Secular & Long Term View
EUR/CHF
Monthly View
First of All
After
First…
Test 38.2-44.7 % Zone Fib Ret Last Long Term Bear Wave
Upper Edge – Key Level 1.1150
Inverted Ending Diagonal
Second…
Swiss RISK OFF Strike under Psychological Key Level 1.10
Activated
Bear Reversal Process
Bear Reversal Pattern – Inverted Ending Diagonal
Fall under Lower Edge – Key Level 1.09
Now still dominating
EURO Bear Strong Wave
Test EUR/CHF Forex Parity Zone – Master Psychological Key Level 1.00 Zone
MACD Monthly Sell Signal
Ahead of Open Scenario SWISS Wave Continuation to
Master ATL Key Levels 0.87 Zone from 2015 Year
Lower Psychological Key Level 0.85 Zone
with
Pattern Inception ( Line Chart )
Large Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 0.85 Zone
Small Inverted Ending Diagonal – Lower Edge – Key Level 0.9750 Zone
with
H&S – Neckline – Key Level 1.0550
SWISS FRANC Long Term Battlefield
EUR/CHF
0.85 0.87 0.97-1.00 vs 1.05 – 1.10
ATA Investment Conclusion
Focus carefully on
Present Master Range
0.85 0.87 0.97-1.00 vs 1.05 – 1.10
with
Patterns ( Line Chart )
Large Small Inverted Ending Diagonals and H&S
ATA FX Maximes
MAJOR TOPS WERE ALWAYS CREATED on SUPER GOOD NEWS
with
EUPHORY PHASE …!!!
vs
MAJOR BOTTOMS WERE ALWAYS CREATED
on
SUPER NEGATIVE NEWS
with
PANIC PHASE
always remember
Market Trend always changed when Mainstream Media created
One Slogan ” No Chance for Change “…
that’s why
Charts show you Reversal Pattern First ex ante…!!!
N – TIMES
Finally …
Most Important is Final Smart Money Reaction….
Now EOM – March
EUR/CHF ; USD/CHF ; GBP/CHF & SWISS FRANC FUTURES Charts
2.08.2019 – ( First Phase US Session )
EUR/CHF Monthly Charts :
13.05.2020 ( Second Half European Session )
25.02.2021 – Asian Session
21.05.2021 – EOW
9.07.2021 – European Session – Start Phase
4.03.2022 – EOW
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 