RUSSIAN RUBLE – FX Secular Perspective -Invasion Implications – after First West Sanctions Wave Hit before “Nuclear Option” SWIFT Ban Rising Risk in “Junk” Rating Shadow…

RUSSIAN RUB   –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2015 – 2016

6.08.2015 –  MXN , ZAR & RUB – THIS IS HOW SMART MONEY DO IT…

12.12.2015 – ZAR…MXN & RUB ON CURRENCY FIRE – FED DEJA VU…

21.05.2016 – DXY vs EM CURRENCY – JUNE ( JULY ) MARKET FIGHTING ROUND…

7.08.2016 – EMERGING MARKETS STRIKE BACK…

2018

18.03.2018  –  RTS & RUB – RUSSIA TODAY…

11.04.2018  –  RED ASSETS – from RUSSIA with LOSS…

16.07.2018  –  RUSSIAN RUBLE – TRUMP – PUTIN GEOPOLITICAL FACTOR…

23.07.2018  –  RUBLE – RUSSIAN OIL & GEOPOLITICAL ROULETTE…

9.08.2018   –   RUBLE – TRUMP STRIKES BACK…

10.08.2018  –  RUB – AMERICAN F/X TARGET…

18.08.2018  –  RUB vs US SANCTIONS & OIL RISK OFF FACTORS…

26.08.2018  –  RUB vs TRUMP CURRENCY WAR…

10.09.2018  –  RUSSIAN RUBLE vs American Financial Pressure…

12.09.2018  –  RUSSIAN RUBLE vs VOSTOCK 2018…

15.09.2018  –  RUSSIAN RUBLE vs CBR Rate Hike…

18.10.2018  –  RUSSIAN RUBLE vs SANCTIONS with ITALIAN VERBAL HELP…

18.11.2018 –  RUSSIAN RUBLE vs OIL STRIKE…

2019

19.01.2019 –  RUSSIAN RUBLE – Relative Strength Rising…

1.06.2019 –  RUSSIAN RUBLE – Above & Beyond RISK…

4.08.2019 –  RUSSIAN RUBLE – under Moscow Political & Oil Strikes…

3.09.2019 –  RUSSIAN RUBLE – Secular Perspective -Putin 20 years in Power…

2020

18.08.2020 – RUSSIAN RUBLE – AT USD & OIL GRACE…

27.09.2020 – RUSSIAN RUBLE – PUTIN BEAR WEAKNESS…

19.10.2020 – RUSSIAN RUBLE – Russian Roulette Shot Countdown…

14.11.2020 – RUSSIAN RUBLE – RUSSIAN FX LIMITED STRIKE…

2021

10.05.2021 – RUSSIAN RUBLE – Vamos OIL on Falling USD Wave…

Present  RUSSIAN RUB  Motives

Hard RISK OFF Wave

Russia Ukraine War – Russia Invasion – Kiev Hard Fights

Russa Asset ( Rubel Stocks Bonds ) under SELL OFF Pressure vs Latest Bull Contraction

West US EU Sanctions

Russia Rating – S&P cuts to Junk, Moody’s Junk Warning

with

Rising Risk of Future

“Nuclear Option” – cutting Russia SWIFT Access

US Sanctions on Russia Central Bank – CBR

and

The Bank of Russia CBR February Meeting

CBR raises key rate to 9.5%

OIL – Russia Factor

OIL Long Term Bull Market Hard Stopped

from Panic Buying on Russia Invasion – Test 100 USD Zone to Bear Reversal – Daily Shooting Star

( EOW 91.93 USD )

European Natural Gas – Russia Factor

from Panic Buying on Russia Invasion – Test 135 EURO Zone to Bear Dynamic Strike and Reversal

( EOW 94 EURO )

Secular Motives

Tech Boom Cycle – US BIG TECH RUN  Stopped

vs

Nasdaq 100  Nasdaq Comp. 

Bear Hard Wave from November 2021 Top Zone

Stopped and Bull Reversal Buy Invasion

Bull Dynamic Contraction

Weekly Bull Reversal Candlestick Pattern – Hammer

after

Test Fib Ret 38.2% 13.000 Zone Bull Wave from 2020 Covid Panic Low

DJIA S&P500

Bear Hard Waves from January 2022 ATH Zones

Stopped and Bull Reversal Buy Invasion

Bull Dynamic Contraction

Weekly Bull Reversal Candlestick Patterns – Hammer

and

Russia Ukraine War Russia Invasion – Kiev Hard Fights

Global Inflation Shock

special in Eurozone US and EM

US Inflation Shock

Rising Inflation keeps Pressure on Fed 

Fed Faster Rate Hikes

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

25.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 76% Probability and 0.50% 24% Probability

vs

18.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 64.4% Probability and 0.50% 35.6% Probability

11.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.50% Action High 93.8% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Fed Taper Action and Rasing Rates Scenario 

Fed Hikes and Taper Acceleration Main Scenario

with

US Inflation Stagflation Fears

STAGFLATION Fear – 70’s Stagflation Deja Vu creating by Mainstream

clear example

Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror

and

Warning Symptoms Activated

Wall Street and US Nasdaq TECH Overheating

RISK OFF Scenario Active

BUBBLE WARNINGS

BofA – Endgame Begins

Global Rate Shock Has Triggered Tech Wreck, Recession Countdown Systemic Event

JPMorgan Warns

S&P Fair Value Is 2,500 I f Inflation Shocks Do Not Fade Away

Jim Grant – Fed Warns

The Fed – Speculator on the Wrong Side of the Market

Goldman Sachs Bond Market “Jonestown” Delusion Territory Warns

$100T of the planet’s wealth is positioned in bonds sub 2% in yield with inflation normalizing this cycle at 3-4% vs 1-2% post Lehman

Bill Ackman Warning

We’re in a “Classic Bubble” that’s “Fueled by The Fed”

Goldman Boss Solomon Warns

Market Greed Is outpacing Fear

Rickards New Great Depression Warning

No Full Recovery until 2045

Not Recover from Pandemic fully until 2045 or later in Terms of

Savings, Consumption, Disinflation, Low Interest Rates, Low Growth

Michael Burry Wall Street Madness

Michael Burry Blasts Fed, SEC Over Most Speculative, Overvalued, Geopolitically-Challenged Market In Decades

Larry Summers Warns

Central Banking Blast

Economic Stagnation & Japanization

Michael Snyder Warns

They Have Lost Control – Our Destination Is Economic Collapse

Stan Druckenmiller – This Bubble Is in Everything

Warns Crypto, Meme Stocks, Bonds are in Bubble

Peter Schiff Warns of Irrational Exuberance in the Stock Market Casino

Stanley Druckenmiller Warns Stock Market is in an ‘Absolute Raging Mania’

Volatility Storm Rising Risk

” Sugar High ” Over – Nomura Warning

US Economy Has Entered Slowdown Phase

Gartman The Bull Market Has Ended And The Bear Market Has Begun

Goldman Sachs Stagflation Horror

Roubini Dr.Doom Warns Stagflationary Debt Crisis

Jim Rogers Warns – Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime

Six Largest Wall Street Banks Wall Street Red Alerts

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.

“Red Alert” Warnings on the US Stock Market

BofA Warns Stagflationary Hell

Only The Biggest Ever Bubble Delaying A Catastrophic Recession

” No Palce to Hide ” UBS Warning

Roubini ‘Dr. Doom’ Mega Warning

‘Train Wreck’ Stock Market Crash

Stagflationary Debt Crisis

10-year Depression is coming… investors far too confident about a possible recovery…

Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Warning

” Epic Bubble ”

“Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warning

” Mother of All Crashes ”

Rob Subbaraman Nomura

Cassandra Warning Model

Palantir Gold Bet Warning

Preparing for Future More Black Swans

BLACK SWANS

Main CENTRAL BANKS -Biggest ever Black Swans

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

vs

Coronavirus or Russia Invasion “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger

Secular Motives

Wall Street Bull Wave Hard Stopped  vs Bull Reversal Dynamic Action

specially US BIG TECH – Nasdaq 100 Nasdaq Comp.

Tech Boom Cycle on Wall Street  Stopped

RATE HIKES and TAPER Acceleration Main Scenario – especially by Fed

after

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks

Global Trade & Economy Recovery after Pandemic – Lockdowns

with

Stagflation Rising Risk

Global Debt Rising

US – German Eurozone and GLOBAL INFLATION Skyrocket

COVID Variants Waves

Now OMICRON

Fed vs ECB Central Motive

Fed

Last Fed Meeting – Powell Hawkish Prediction

Powell – Volcker Moment 1970’s

Fed March 2022 Meeting – Fed Funds Rates

18.02.2022 – 1st Hike 0.25% 64.4% Probability and 0.50% 35.6% Probability

7 Hikes 2022 Outlook by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

Strong Hawkish Perspective

Dynamic Rate Hikes

Balance Sheet Rundown

Fed Taper

US Inflation Dynamic Rising

ECB

ECB Lagarde Central Schizophrenia

Now Dovish vs Meeting Hawkish

ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Recovery

European QE > US QE

ECB No Taper for Now

ECB Dovish Strikes for Now

Eurozone Inflation Dynamic Rising

Eurozone Rates Time Game

European QE Story

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Bull Long Term Wave Try Back to Bull Track New Hard Stopped

Sell Invasion Strike

USD Panic Buying on Russian Invasion  Test 97.80 Zone

Activated  New Bear Reversal Pattern 2B – Key Level 97.30

Bears Dynamic Contraction from 97.80 Zone to 96.50 Zone

ATA Conclusion

Dollar Index Long Term Bull Wave Try Back to Bull Track New Hard Stopped

Now dominating

Bear Dynamic Wave  from 97.80 Zone to to 96.50 Zone

Active Zone Key Levels  96.50  –  97

( EOW 96.53 )

First…ATA  from  10.05.2021

” Now still dominating

Shot Down from Psychological Key Level 80 Zone

New Active USD Bear Strike under Key Level 75

ATA  USD/RUB  Investment Conclusion 

USD  Relative Strength  still Falling …!!!

Now special focus on

Result of Test Present Psychological Key Level 70 – 73 Zone  

ATA  USD/RUB  Present Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on Key Levels

70 – 73 vs  75 – 80

with

Fib Ret Last Bull Wave

ATA RUB Key Tweets

Second…Present  RUSSIAN RUB   Situation 

USD/RUB   SECULAR   SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS

The Hardest is to be Patient

Trend is Your Friend

Fibonacci Ext and Ret shows Master Levels ex ante

Charts Worth more than 1000 Words

Charts have No Temperature

Charts always show Reversal Pattern First ex ante

Bullish Bearish Divergences – Hidden Key to Reversal

Markets Never Wrong vs Often Mistaken 

Hope or Fear is Not a Strategy 

Follow the Trendlines  Not the Headlines 

Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal

Invest – Trade vs Don’t Forecast

Secular/Long Term View shows the Truth

ATA MARKET MODEL 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

Final…INVEST & TRADE – DON’T FORECAST…

First…Key Motives

above in this text…

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

Monthly View 

First of All

New ATH – Key Level 88 Zone

( stricte 87.99 )

After 

First…Test 44.7-50% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave start 2018 Year

Second…Activated Bull Reversal W Pattern – Key Level 70

and

Bull Wave

with

still Active

Ending Diagonals Inception ( Candlestick Chart )

Small Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 85

Large Ending Diagonal – Upper Edge – Key Level 91.50

and

Ending Diagonal  and Invert Ending Diagonal  ( Line Charts )

Now dominating

Bull Wave above Master Psychological Key Level 80 Test Higher 88 Zone

vs

Bear Contraction from 88 to 83 Zone

with

Present Testing Lower Key Level 83 Zone 

and

February Monthly Bull Candlestick vs Long Upper Shadow

Monthly MACD Buy Signal New Activated

RUB Smart Money Battlefield  

80 – 83 vs  85 – 88

ATA  USD/RUB  Investment Conclusion

USD  Relative Strength  Rising …!!!

Now special focus on

Result of Test Present Psychological Key Level 80 – 83 Zone  

ATA  USD/RUB  Present Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully on Key Levels

80 – 83 vs  85 – 88

Fib Ext Three Large Bull Waves

85 – 90 – 100 – 120 Key Level Zones

with

Research New Classic and Candlestick Patterns

New

Russia – Ukraine War News

West Sanctions – Nuclear Option – Russia SWIFT Cut Off

and

Active Monitoring 

GOLD , DXY , EUR/USD , EM CURRENCIES & OIL with Natural Gas

ATA FX Maximes

MAJOR TOPS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER GOOD NEWS

with

EUPHORY PHASE

vs

MAJOR BOTTOMS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER NEGATIVE NEWS

with

PANIC PHASE

Market Trend always changed when Mainstream Media created 

One Slogan ” No Chance for Change “…

that’s why

Charts show you  Reversal Pattern First  ex ante…!!!

N- TIMES

Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…

&

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOM – February

USD/RUB  Monthly , Weekly  &  Daily  Charts

18.03.2018

Your new TVC (6)

11.04.2018

Your new TVC

15.07.2018

Your new TVC (3)
Your new TVC (4)
Your new TVC (5)

23.07.2018

Your new TVC
Your new TVC (1)
Your new TVC (2)

9.08.2018

Your new TVC (5)
Your new TVC (6)
Your new TVC (8)

10.08.2018

tvc_1e1d68711527d067624b3bb54ef71d1c
tvc_ce8bc1b6f2353c07c4dd8f89de37ba33
tvc_406b4856071959d34d9241f4f7b0127d

17.08.2018

USD-RUB-M
USD-RUB-W
USD-RUB-D

24.08.2018

RUB-M
RUB-W
RUB-D

10.09.2018

USD-RUB-M
USD-RUB-W
USD-RUB-D

12.09.2018

USD-RUB-M-1
USD-RUB-W-1
USD-RUB-D-1

14.09.2018

USD-RUB-M-2
USD-RUB-W-2
USD-RUB-D-2

18.10.2018

USD-RUB-M-3
USD-RUB-W-3
USD-RUB-D-3

16.11.2018

USD-RUB-M-4
USD-RUB-W-4
USD-RUB-D-4

18.01.2019

usd-rub-m
usd-rub-w
usd-rub-d

31.05.2019

USD-RUB - M
USD-RUB - W
USD-RUB - D

2.08.2019

USD-RUB - M
USD-RUB - W
USD-RUB - D

3.09.2019 

USD-RUB - M-Line
USD-RUB - M
USD-RUB - W
USD-RUB - D

USD/RUB  Monthly Charts

18.08.2020 – Assian Session 

USD-RUB - M-Line-First
USD-RUB - M-Line-Second
USD-RUB - M- Fib Ret

25.09.2020 – EOD

19.10.2020 – Assian Session

13.11.2020 – EOD

10.05.2021 – before Start European Session

25.02.2022 – EOW

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