DAX – German Secular View – Bundestag Election – Geopolitical Impact…

DAX   –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

ATA Continuation of…

2017-2018

13.08.2017 – DAX – ZWAI B PANZERFAUST…

25.09.2017 – AfD – REICH STRIKES BACK…

6.09.2018  –  DAX – GERMAN EQUITY on the EDGE…

12.11.2018 –  DAX – GERMAN EQUITY under the EDGE…

2019 

13.01.2019 – DAX – GERMAN RISK OFF Wave…

9.05.2019 –  DAX – FIGHTING in MASTER EQUATOR 12.000…

3.08.2019 –  DAX – STRIKE under EQUTOUR 12.000

23.09.2019 –  DAX – BULL vs BEAR MAJOR CLASH…

2020 

18.01.2020 –  DAX – Final Fight in Master 2017-2018 Top Zone…

30.03.2020 – DAX – German Secular View after Financial Gotterdammerung First Act…

2021

9.06.2021 – DAX – German Secular View – MAINSTREAM MEDIA FEVER…

10.09.2021 – DAX – German Secular View – Warning on Horizon…

DAX  Index  Key Motives

German Election 2021

Narrow Victory for SPD leaves Germany in Limbo

Social Democrats narrowly beat Angela Merkel’s alliance in a historic federal election

SPD gaining 25.7% of the vote, CDU/CSU at 24.1%

German Equities still No September New ATH Warning

vs

Wall Street September Last ATH

with

Secular Motives 

still Active

Global Trade Boom and Tech Boom Cycle on Wall Street RUN –  Master Indexes S&P500 DJIA special Nasdaq

Wall Street Last September ATH

vs

Latest Bear and Bull Short Term Strikes

on

China Evergrande Motive

DEBT RISK ON/OFF News Day by Day

from Panic to Bull Contraction and Back to Sell Off

and

Warning Symptoms

Wall Street and US Nasdaq TECH Overheating

RISK OFF Scenario Rising Risk

Rising Probability

Wall Street and US Nasdaq TECH Overheating Risk 

Latest Warning Symptoms Bear Harder Contraction Rising Risk

BUBBLE WARNINGS

Roubini Dr.Doom Warns Stagflationary Debt Crisis

Jim Rogers Warns – Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime

Six Largest Wall Street Banks Wall Street Red Alerts

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.

“Red Alert” Warnings on the US Stock Market

BofA Warns Stagflationary Hell

Only The Biggest Ever Bubble Delaying A Catastrophic Recession

” No Palce to Hide ” UBS Warning

Roubini ‘Dr. Doom’ Mega Warning

‘Train Wreck’ Stock Market Crash

Stagflationary Debt Crisis

10-year Depression is coming… investors far too confident about a possible recovery…

Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Warning

” Epic Bubble ”

“Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warning

” Mother of All Crashes ”

Rob Subbaraman Nomura

Cassandra Warning Model

Palantir Gold Bet Warning

Preparing for Future More Black Swans

BLACK SWANS

Main CENTRAL BANKS -Biggest ever Black Swans

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

vs

Coronavirus “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger

Secular Motives

Wall Street Bull Strong – Dynamic Wave Active – Last ATH

Tech Boom Cycle on Wall Street

Mega ” CENTRAL PRINTING “ by  Main Central Banks – specially Fed

Global Trade & Economy Recovery after Pandemic – Lockdowns

vs

COVID Variants Waves

DELTA ; LAMBDA , KAPPA and Newest Mu Mutation Strikes

Global Debt Rising

US – German Eurozone and GLOBAL INFLATION Skyrocket

Fed vs ECB Central Motive

Fed and ECB Mega ”Central Printing“

European QE > US QE

Fed No Taper and ECB No Taper for Now

Fed

Fed Meeting Hawkish Scenario

Taper Start November 2021 – Ending Mid-2022 , Signals Rate-Hike In 2022

Finally for Now

US Macro and Taper ” Ping Pong ”

Fed Time Game in ” Printing World ”

Fed Verbal Schizophrenia Continuation – from Dovish to Hawkish

ECB

MORE EUROPEAN QE Scenario

ECB to Weigh QE Boost when Covid Bond Buys End

ECB Lagarde Verdict

more Dovish than Hawkish Strike

Not Eurozone Tapering vs Recalibrating PEPP ( Pandemic Stimulus )

with

ECB Mega ” Central Printing” – Long Term QE Perspective with “MORE” Option – Lower Forever

USD FX MASTER TRIGGER

( DXY Futures )

Dollar Index

Now still dominating

Dollar Index Bull Wave Cont. still above Major Psychological Key Level  93

with

Present Bull Strike  > Higher  93.30

Active Zone Key Levels  93 93.30  vs 93.50

( Now 93.41 )

First…ATA from  10.09.2021

” Now dominating

Bear Contraction from 16.000 Zone

with

Bear Reversal Pattern  Inverted Ending Diagonal

Second…Present  DAX  Situation

DAX SECULAR  PERSPECTIVE

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS

The Hardest is to be Patient

Trend is Your Friend

Fibonacci Ext and Ret shows Master Levels ex ante

Charts Worth more than 1000 Words

Charts have No Temperature

Charts always show Reversal Pattern First ex ante

Bullish Bearish Divergences – Hidden Key to Reversal

Markets Never Wrong vs Often Mistaken 

Hope is Not a Strategy 

Follow the Trendlines  Not the Headlines 

Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal

Invest – Trade vs Don’t Forecast

Secular/Long Term View shows the Truth

ATA MARKET MODEL 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

Final…INVEST & TRADE – DON’T FORECAST…

First…Key Master Motives 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns

First of All

All Time High

Psychological Key Level 16.000 Zone – August 2021

( stricte 16.030,33 )

After

March 2020 Covid Panic

but with

Test

First…FIB RET  50-56.4% Last Long Term  Rasing Wave 

from Lehman Low 2009 Year

Second…Psychological Key Level 8.000 Zone 

Dynamic Bull Contraction 

Back to

Psychological Key Level 10.000 Zone 

FIB RET  38.2%  Zone  Last Long Term  Rasing Wave

with

March Monthly Bear Big Real Body Candlestick

Long Lower Shadow 

and

Dynamic Bull Wave

Back above

Master Resistance Zone from 2017 – 2020 Years

LONG TERM TOP PATTERN 

2B  Key Level 13.595  (Candlestick Chart)

M  Key Level 13.250  (Line Chart)

Rising above

First…

Higher Psychological Key Level 15.000

Second…

Upper Edge Inverted Rising Wedge Pattern

after

Earlier Activated Inverted H&S

( Line Chart )

and

Last Test

Fib Ext Node 15.550 – 15.880 Zone

Psychological Key Level 16.000 Zone

Now still dominating

Bear Contraction from 16.000 Zone

Bear Reversal Pattern  Inverted Ending Diagonal

Upper Edge – Key Level 16.300

Lower Edge – Key Level 15.600

but with

Test Lower Edge

Shot Down and Shot Up – Back above Edge for Now

September Monthly Hammer Candlestick

very long Lower Shadow

vs

Bear Engulfing Pattern Risk still Active – Conformation EOM

with

Monthly MACD Buy Signal

Ahead of Higher

FIB EXT 16.300 16.500 17.000 Key Levels Zone

Present  DAX  Battlefield 

15.000-15.500-600  vs  16.000-16.300

ATA  Investment  Conclusion

Now  Special Focus on

Active  DAX  Range 

15.000-15.500-600  vs  16.000-16.300

with

Active or Cancel

Bear Reversal Patterns

Inverted Ending Diagonal

Bear Engulfing

ATA Wall Street Maximes

MAJOR TOPS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER GOOD NEWS

with

EUPHORY PHASE

vs

MAJOR BOTTOMS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER NEGATIVE NEWS

with

PANIC PHASE

Market Trend always changed when Mainstream Media created 

One Slogan ” No Chance for Change “…

that’s why

Charts show you  Reversal Pattern First  ex ante…!!!

N – TIMES

Finally …

Risk strikes Fast…

Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…

Charts show Reversal Pattern First before Move…

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

EOM – Now September

DAX  Monthly Charts

13.08.2017

DAX-M8

25.09.2017

DAX-M44

6.09.2018

DAX-M1
DAX-M2
DAX-M3

12.11.2018

DAX-M1
DAX-M2
DAX-M3

11.01.2019

dax-m1
dax-m2
dax-m3
dax-fib-m

9.05.2019

DAX - M - Line
DAX - M - Line - Focus
DAX - M - Fib

2.08.2019

DAX - M - Line
DAX - M - Line - Focus
DAX - M - Fib

23.09.2019 – EOD

DAX - M - Line
DAX - M - Line - Focus
DAX - M - Fib

17.01.2020 – EOW

DAX - M - Line
DAX - M - Line - Focus
DAX - M - Fib

30.03.2020 –  EOD

DAX - M - Line
DAX - M - Line - Focus
DAX - M - Fib

8.06.2021 – EOD

10.09.2021 – European Session Start Phase

27.09.2021 – European Session First Phase

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