SOUTH AFRICAN RAND – AFRICA MACRO with PANDEMIC STRIKE…

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation of…

2015 – 2016

6.08.2015 –  MXN , ZAR & RUB – THIS IS HOW SMART MONEY DO IT…

12.12.2015 – ZAR…MXN & RUB ON CURRENCY FIRE – FED DEJA VU…

21.05.2016 – DXY vs EM CURRENCY – JUNE ( JULY ) MARKET FIGHTING ROUND…

7.08.2016 – EMERGING MARKETS STRIKE BACK…

2018

18.08.2018 –  SOUTH AFRICAN RAND – TURKISH & EM F/X RISK STRIKE…

2019

31.05.2019 –  SOUTH AFRICAN RAND after RSA National Election 2019…

 

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND  Master Motives

USD F/X  Master EM Currencies Pathfinder Falling Wave 

with

Last Pandemic Warning & Panic 

vs

Present COVID-19 Vaccines Hopes 

European & Middle East Recovery Hopes 

created by Mainstream

with

South African Reserve Bank Easing Policy 

South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut its main lending rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%

vs

Pandemic Second Wave Fear Strikes Back  

vs

Roubini ‘Dr. Doom’ Mega Warning

10-year Depression is coming… investors far too confident about a possible recovery…

with

Afterpandemic New Reality 

EUROZONE – US  – ASIA – AFRICA – Global Economy Reopen

Recovery Scenario Mainstream Projections 

 

FED-BOJ-ECB-BoE-Biggest ever Black Swans

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

vs

Coronavirus “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger

 

RAND

 

First…ATA  from  31.05.2019

” Focus carefully Result of  Testing 

Psychological Key Level 15.00 Zone

vs

Daily  Invert H&S Pattern – Neckline  14.50     

 

Second…Present  USD/ZAR   Situation 

USD/ZAR  SECULAR  ACTION

 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS

Charts have No Temperature

Markets Never Wrong vs Often Mistaken 

Hope is Not a Strategy 

Follow the Trendlines  Not the Headlines 

Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal

 

ATA MARKET MODEL 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical Pattern…

Final…INVEST & TRADE – DON’T FORECAST…

 

First…Key Motives

above in this text…

 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

Long Term  View 

First of All

New All Time High – April 2020 

Key Levels  19 – 20  Zone 

( 19.3547 )

after

created  Main Top 

&

activated Bear Reversal Pattern – 2B

Key Level 18.30 

with

Last Bear Contraction 

Test 38.6% Fib Ret Last Bull Wave 

&

Last Bull Contraction 

Test Key Level 17.80 

Now dominating

New Shot Down

Back to Key Level 17 Zone 

vs

still Active

MACD Monthly Buy Signal 

 

USD/ZAR  Present Active Range

17  –  18 – 20 

 

ATA   USD/ZAR  Present Investment Conclusion

Focus carefully Result of  Testing 

Psychological Key Level 17.00 Zone

with

Fib Ret Last Bull Wave 

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  Maxim 

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

EOM – Now  August

 

USD/ZAR  Monthly , Weekly & Daily Charts

17.08.2018

USD-ZAR-M

USD-ZAR-W

USD-ZAR-D

31.05.2019

USD-ZAR - M

 

USD-ZAR - W

USD-ZAR - D

USD/ZAR  Monthly Charts

21.08.2020 – EOW

USD-ZAR - M - Line

USD-ZAR - M

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