YUAN – FX LOCKDOWN…

YUAN  – Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation of…

2019 – Lasts 

1.10.2019 –  YUAN – 70-th Anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in Trade War Shadow…

5.11.2019 –  YUAN – CHINA BULL CONTRACTION to MASTER 7.00…

2020

17.01.2020 –  YUAN – US – China Trade Deal ‘Phase One’ Signed & China No “Currency Manipulator” Strikes…

29.01.2020 –  YUAN Offshore – US Dollar Bull Reversal Pattern Activated before Coronavirus Fear Main Strike…

 

YUAN  Present Main Motives

Global Coronavirus Pandemic – still High Risk 

Wuhan Exodus Extreme Risk

&

Coronavirus Second Wave Risk

Lockdown Ends – Starts Risk

with

Global Slowdown or Recession Extreme High Risk

 

FED-BOJ-ECB-BoE & PBoC -Biggest ever Black Swan

Minsky Moment Flat Money “Printing” System

vs

Coronavirus “Ugly Duckling”-Trigger

&

FED “Central Printing Projection”

Balance Sheet  Skyrocket Rising  Future Move

Japanification in Global Central Action

BOJ  Mega Easing Process 

Goldman Sachs Japan Economy Warning 

Japan Economy Q2 Shrink 25%

with

YUAN  Moves

vs

USD – Very Strong Main Global Currency 

 

US  Factors  for  YUAN   

Bernanke RISK OFF Verbal Strike

No V-Shaped US Recovery

Trump signed CARES Act-2.2 Trillion USD

&

FED Atlanta Bostic “More&More” Strike

More for US Economy Financial System if needed

Mnuchin US Macro “Wonder” Strike

5% GDP-EOY 2020 Realistic

FED Powell New Central “More&More” Strike

Policy Room for More Action

Central Banks-Hazard ALL IN

FED Mega Easing BAZOOKA Strike – QE No Limits 

US Government  Stimulus Packet 

with

Bernanke “Now No Great Depression” Strike

FED Bullard “Boom” Strike

after short term Shock US Economy will Boom again

Kudlow RISK ON Verbal Strike

US likely V-shaped Recovery in Summer vs Present 10-15% Contraction

vs

FED Bullard US Economy Götterdämmerung Scenario

US Q2 GDP -50% & Unemployment Rate 30%

Goldman Sachs US Coronavirus-driven Recession Strike

Goldman “Apocalypse” Strike

Expectation Record 24% Crash US Q2 GDP

Mnuchin US Jobless Warning

Coronavirus could Yield 20% Jobless Rate without Action

Morgan Stanley Base Case – Global Recession

 

ATA Conclusion 

Wall Street Factor  for  YUAN 

still High Probability

of

2000 Year  DOT.COM  Bubble Burst  DEJA VU Scenario

or even

1929 Great Depression 

with

Guggenheim “PONZI SCHEME” Collapse Warning

Central Banks driven ‘Ponzi Scheme’ must Collapse

Tech Bubble High Risk 

GLOBAL FLAT MONEY ERROR SYSTEM MEGA RISK 

 

YUAN - 10

 

First…

YUAN 

ATA from  17.01.2020

” After

First…

70-th Anniversary of the People’s Republic of China

China F/X Break – No Sessions in China 

&

No Back above Key level 7.15 

with

Activated

Daily & H5 Bear Reversal Pattern

2B Pattern – Key Level 7.1480

&

Falling Wave

with

Break Down 

Psychological Key Level 7.00

Invert H&S Neckline – 6.96 

&

Cancel

August Bull Monthly Candlestick 

Close

Weekly Bull Gap 

Now dominating

Falling Wave 

with

almost Cancel 

Last  Daily Rising Wave 

Lows Key Levels 6.83 – 6.85 Zone    ”

 

YUAN Offshore

ATA from  29.01.2020

USD/CNH 

Daily View 

Bull Reversal Pattern 

Ending Diagonal 

Now dominating

Fighting in Upper Edge Zone

Ending Diagonal 

Key Level 6.97 

&

Psychological Key Level 7.00 Zone 

with

MACD Daily Buy Signal   

 

&

ATA Last CHINA YUAN  Tweet

 

Second…

Present  YUAN  Situation 

YUAN   LONG TERM  SITUATION 

ATA MARKET MODEL  IN LONG TERM ACTION  

 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS

Hope is Not a Strategy 

Follow the Trendlines  Not the Headlines 

Failed Signal is the Strongest Signal

 

ATA MARKET MODEL 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

 

First…Key Motives

above in this text…

 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

USD/CNY

After Activated

January Monthly Bull Reversal Pattern

Hammer Candlestick 

Long Lower Shadow

Dynamic Back above Psychological Key Level 7.00

vs

March & April Monthly Candlesticks – Upper Shadows 

with

Last 3 Weeks Test Key Level  7.13 Zone – No Test 7.15 Zone

3 Weekly Candlesticks with upper Shadows 

&

Daily Inverted Ending Diagonal Pattern 

Upper  Edge – 7.14  vs  Lower Edge 6.98 

Now dominating

Bear Limited Contraction 

&

Test Lower Psychological Key Level 7.05 

with

Weekly & Daily Bear Candlesticks

&

Monthly Daily H5 MACD Sell Signals

vs

Weekly MACD Buy Signal 

 

ATA  Investment  Conclusion 

Dominating

FX Lockdown 

Present  USD/CNY Active Range 

7.00-7.05   vs    7.10 –  7.13-7.15

so

Focus on

FIB RET Last Wave Up 

( Weekly Chart )

&

Research

New Pattern Classical   Candlestick 

&

Key Signal – Move Out of the Range

&

Entering New Bull  or Bear  Wave

of course with

New Coronavirus News

vs

Next  China – Global Macro Strikes

&

Central Banks FED-ECB-BOJ -PBoC & Governments Strikes 

 

ATA  Maximes

MAJOR TOPS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED on SUPER GOOD NEWS

with

EUPHORY PHASE …!!!

vs

MAJOR BOTTOMS  WERE ALWAYS CREATED

on

SUPER NEGATIVE NEWS

with

PANIC PHASE

 

Market Trend always changed when Mainstream Media created 

One Slogan ” No Chance for Change “…

that’s why

Charts show you  Reversal Pattern First  ex ante…!!!

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  & Metals Maximes 

Risk strikes Fast…

Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Now April

 

USD/CNY  Monthly ; Weekly ; Daily  &  H4  – H5 Charts :

30.09.2019 – EOM 

USD-CNY - M

USD-CNY - W

USD-CNY - D

USD-CNY - H5

5.11.2019 – EOD

USD-CNY - M USD-CNY - W

USD-CNY - D

USD-CNY - H5

17.01.2020 – ( End Phase Asia Session ) 

USD-CNY - M

USD-CNY - W

USD-CNY - D

USD-CNY - H5

USD/CNH  Daily  &  H5 Charts :

29.01.2020 ( After End US Session ) 

USD-CNH - D

USD-CNH - H5

USD/CNY  Monthly ; Weekly ; Daily  &  H5 Charts :

8.04.2030 – ( before Start US Session )

USD-CNY - M

USD-CNY - W

USD-CNY - D

USD-CNY - H5

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