EUROZONE DEBT CRACK – SOUTH RUSH vs ITALIAN ESCAPE…

EUROZONE BOND YIELDS  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation of…

8.06.2019 –  GLOBAL DEBT – NEGATIVE YIELD OUTBREAK…

15.06.2019 –  GLOBAL DEBT – YIELD RUSH…

with

ATA Following …

BOND YIELDS 

30.03.2019 –  JAPAN DEBT – JAPANIFICATION in ACTION…

31.03.2019 –  SWISS DEBT – SNB NIRP POLICY…

31.03.2019 –  GERMAN DEBT – JAPANIFICATION SCENARIO …

29.05.2019 –  US 10Y BOND YIELD – Awakening & Run to Safe Haven…

ITALIAN YIELD

6.06.2019 –  ITALIAN ASSETS in ITALO DISCO BEAT…

with

Special

15.09.2018 – Financial Decade after Lehman Panic…

&

3.05.2019 –  PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index – F/X Anti USD & Save Haven Pathfinder…

 

ITALIAN BONDS  Active Master Motives

EU Disciplinary Process to ITALY over Public Debt Risk 

ITALIAN BUDGET with DEFICIT Level  Risk

Italian Debt – ‘Snowball’ Effect Risk  

Italian GDP RISK OFF  Factor Q1 2019 Y/Y  -0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

Italy Industrial Orders & Industrial Sales Warnings 

with

IMF Lagarde EUROZONE Warning

 

 

 

First

ATA Tweets…

ITALY RATING Verdict

by

S&P

Italy BBB/A-2 Ratings Affirmed

but

Outlook Negative

DXY – Focus on Key Level 98

Key Levels (EOW)

EUR/USD 1.11 vs 1.12 (1.1154)

DXY Index 98 (98.05)

GOLD Spot 1280-1300 USD (1286)

remember

Most Important Final SM Reaction-EOM-April pic.twitter.com/hkG017YbpH

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 27, 2019

ITALY RATING Verdict Smart Money Move

FTSE MIB Index >21.500 (21674)

10Y Bond Yield > 2.50% (2.578%)

EUR/USD in 1.1150 (1.1155)

DXY in 97.50 – 98 Zone (97.75)-Jun Fut

GOLD 1280-1300 USD (1284)-Jun Fut

Most Important Final SM Reaction-EOM-April pic.twitter.com/idMEYiYKPk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 29, 2019

ITALIAN GDP

1Q

Y/Y 0.10% (est -0.10% ; prev 0.00%)

Q/Q 0.20% (est 0.10% ; prev -0.10%)

–

EURO still Intraday > Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1208)

DXY < 97.50 (97.35) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1286)-Jun Fut

–

Most Important SM Reaction -H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/kUS5P7PfwY

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 30, 2019

ITALY Macro Factor

Italy’s Istat Leading Indicator Declines in April
–
Less Than In Previous Months

but

EURO Shot Down under Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.12 (1.1193)

DXY up from 97 Zone (97.30) -Jun Fut

GOLD stil in 1280 Zone (1282)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/tY1iScFsye

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 7, 2019

EU Cuts GDP Forecast 2019 – Warning of Euro-Area Risks

Eurozone to 1.20%

German to 0.5%

Italy to 0.1%

EURO Shot Down more under Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.12 (1.1185)

DXY in 97.50 Zone (97.40) -Jun Fut

GOLD stil in 1280 Zone (1281)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/tEKTWo40iO

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 7, 2019

Italy Industrial Production

March

Y/Y -1.4% (est -0.8%, prev 0.9%)

M/M -0.9% (est -0.8%, prev 0.8%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1223)

DXY in 97 (97.18) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/P9Nsa5Cgyo

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Italy Retail Sales

March
Y/Y -3.3% (est 1.0%, prev 0.9%)
M/M -0.3% (est 0.1%, prev 0.1%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1231)

DXY in 97 (97.13) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/xsA8UdND0v

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Premier Salvini Verbal Strike

Italy will break the 3% Budget Deficit
&
Debt-to-GDP go Higher if needed

It 10Y B Yield 2.748

No EURO Falls – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1213)

DXY in 97 (97.27) -Jun Fut

GOLD Test 1300 (1299)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/FDOdB3xQsn

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

New Italian PM Salvini EURO Risk Off Verbal Strike

Let’s Remove, Let’s Loosen EU Budget Rules…!!!

but

No EURO Dynamic Shot Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.1150 (1.1163)

DXY < 98 (97.77) -Jun Fut

GOLD < 1280 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/OqaQd1oShf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 20, 2019

ITALY – Salvini New Verbal Strike

Totally Re-Discuss Old & Outdated EU Fiscal Rules

If EU tells Gvt to Make Cuts He Will Say No

EURO still < Master Key Level 1.12 (1.1195)

vs

DXY > 97.50 (97.57)

&

GOLD in 1285 (1285)

Most Important Final SM Reaction- H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/3gwB7LrIwx

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 27, 2019

ITALY ERROR…

Italy 10-Year Bond Yield 2.71%

FTSE MIB 20,363.13 -0.06%

EURO still < Master Key Level 1.12 (1.1190)

vs

DXY > 97.50 (97.63)

&

GOLD < 1285 (1284)

Most Important Final SM Reaction-H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/ce23qArKl0

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 27, 2019

Italian GDP Factor

Q1 2019 Y/Y -0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

but

No EURO Shot Down vs still < Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD in 1.1150 (1.1148)

DXY > 98 (97.90) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1290 (1294)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW-EOM pic.twitter.com/Y4dPISrtb2

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 31, 2019

EURO RISKS

EU Warns

Italian Debt – ‘Snowball’ Effect
Triggers Disciplinary Process Against Italy Over Public Debt

Greece May Not Meet Post-Bail Out Budget Target In 2019

EURO Shot Down form 1.13 Z ( 1.1270 )

DXY < 97 (96.97)

GOLD > 1340 (1343)

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/j5FzRc5svk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 5, 2019

Italian Risk for EUROZONE & EURO still Active

the Day after

EU Triggers Disciplinary Process over Public Debt

Now Waiting for Italian News with ECB of course…

EUR/USD < 1.1250 ( 1.1235 )

DXY > 97 (97.17)

GOLD > 1340 (1341)

Importatnt SM Move H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/KAHCxud4gt

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY Factor News

Di Maio Italy will Negotiate with EU but Wants Change…!!!

Change…!!???

EUR/USD < 1.1250 ( 1.1235 )

DXY > 97 (97.17)

GOLD > 1340 (1341)

Importatnt SM Move H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/x8BjOdBS7Q

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY Motive by ECB Draghi

Italy’s Gvt Debt Reduction Plan Has to be Credible

ATA Conclusion

Words vs Real Debt ETNA…

EUR/USD still Down from Key Level 1.13

EUR/USD in 1.1250 – 1.13 Zone 1.1273 )

DXY in 97 (96.93)

GOLD in 1340 (1340)

Importatnt SM Move-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/74XAfBL7FT

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY EURO RISK OFF Motive still ON

even after

ECB Draghi Italy Risk on Words

DEBT ETNA vs ONLY WORDS

Italy 10Y Yield Up > 2.50% ( 2.52 )

EUR/USD Down < 1.1250 ( 1.1245 )

DXY > 97 (97.13)

GOLD < 1340 (1338)

Importatnt SM Move-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/AZsgLUVdlz

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

EURO – ITALIAN Assets Risk On Factor

Italy Fnance Minister Confident of Budget Compromise with EU

Focus on SM EURO & ITALIAN Bonds -Stock Reaction..First Monday

Key Levels

EUR/USD 1.1350

It 10Y Bond Yield 2.30% pic.twitter.com/DWrQc1uVLJ

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 9, 2019

IMF Lagarde EUROZONE Warning

Euro Zone Growth Slowed, Inflation Low,Requires Policy Coordination

Risks Euro Zone Include Escalation of Trade Tensions

EURO Shot Down

EUR/USD < Key Level 1.13 (1.1280)

DXY in 97 (96.99)

GOLD < 1340 (1338)

Important SM Reaction-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/o3NgKyt0QD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 13, 2019

Italy Macro Risk Off Factor

April

Italy Industrial Orders
Y/Y -0.2% (prev -3.8%)
M/M-2.4% (prev 2.1%)

Italy Industrial Sales

M/M -0.7% (prev 0.4%)
Y/Y -1.0% (prev 1.3%)

&

EUR/USD in 1.1250 Zone ( 1.1260 )

DXY > 97 ( 97.10 )

GOLD > 1.350 ( 1358 )

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/MHdJ8ANpJP

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 14, 2019

&

YIELD DEBT MANIA …

but without 

ITALIAN BONDS

NEGATIVE YIELD DEBT MANIA …

but

Focus on Risks

Debt Awakening from Central Banks Immortal Dream…

&

Start Active TOP 2B Pattern – Negative Yield Global Assets… pic.twitter.com/T4Ufau24jD

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 14, 2019

ITALIAN REAL MACRO PROBLEM…

ITALIAN ASSETS RISK OFF Vector pic.twitter.com/zkYe4q1CF8

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 16, 2019

DEBT RISK OFF Vector – ITALY VS GREECE

For Now

GREECE DEBT to GDP > ITALY DEBT to DDP

but

ITALY 5Y YIELD (1.58%) > GREECE 5Y YIELD (1.55%)

ATA Investment Conclusion

Next Risk Off Arena – ITALY

Open Danger Scenario

Italy – Smart Money Next Risk Off Strike Target pic.twitter.com/JD4kVBaBug

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 16, 2019

 

 

Second…Present  EUROZONE BOND YIELDS Situation 

 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS…

ATA MARKET MODEL : 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern

 

 

SOUTH COUNTRIES vs ITALY

 

First…Main Motives

above in this text…

 

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

WATERFALL Patterns

5Y  Greece Bond Yield

5Y  Spain Bond Yield

5Y  Portugal Bond Yield

vs

NO WATERFALL Pattern

Clearly Above 2016 Year  Master Low 

5Y  Italian Bond Yield

 

 

ATA GLOBAL DEBT  Investment Conclusion 

in Present SOUTH EUROZONE YIELD RUSH…

there is One Key Exception

ITALIAN YIELD EXCEPTION 

For Now

SPANISH & PORTUGAL 5Y YIELD are NEGATIVE 

&

GREECE DEBT to GDP > ITALY DEBT to GDP

but

ITALY 5Y YIELD (1.58%) > GREECE 5Y YIELD (1.55%)

 

Next Risk Off Arena – ITALY

Open Danger Scenario Italy – Smart Money Next Risk Off Strike Target

 

in Danger Italian  Scenario…

Most Danger can happend 

will be

Dynamic Back above

First 2% & Second  2.5% Key Level

this Wave Up will Start

ESCAPE from ITALIAN DEBT…!!!

It will be Sign of

DEBT AMBUSH  

with

Baskerville Dog  Rising Move…

&

Finally

Loss of Faith in ECB  ” Printing Drug “…!!!

like on the Movie

The Big Short

after this

Only True Option on the Market Table

will be

Chernobyl

 

of course

Financial Italian Chernobyl 

vs

Alternative  ITALIAN RISK ON Scenario 

Italian 5Y Yield Shot Down Strike 

with

Back under Key Level 1.50% 

&

Free Fall to 2016 Year Low 

always remember

Lehman Fall & Subprime Crisis  was the Process… 

&

Debt Change Key Direction is the Process…

 

for Now one more time…

Master Questions : 

Is Faith in ECB enough

to

Save

First..Debt 

Second…Equities 

 & 

Finally EUROZONE Financial System …!!???

 

What Smart Moeny Investors know…

that 

No creating ITALIAN DEBT RUSH…!!???

 

Finally

When this ITALIAN DEBT BUBBLE  Burst …!!???

 

Charts show you First…!!!

that’s why

Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…

 

Never Forget

Every Rush has his End …!!!

like

Gold Rush…

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  Maxim 

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Key Month June

 

 

5Y Spain Bond Yield  , 5Y Portugal Bond Yield , 5Y Greece Bond Yield

&  5Y Italian Bond Yield Monthly Charts :

14.06.2019 

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