ITALIAN ASSETS in ITALO DISCO BEAT…

ITALIAN ASSETS  –  Back Today on ATA Research Radar 

 

ATA Continuation of…

July  2016

9.07.2016  – EUROPEAN BANKS – TURNING POINT HIGH PROBABILITY …

10.07.2016 – EUROPEAN BANKS – STRATEGIC VIEW…

March 2018

3.03.2018 – ITALIAN ELECTION like ITALIAN JOB…

4.03.2018 – ITALIAN MOTIVE vs CENTRAL WATCHMAN – ECB…

5.03.2018  – 6-TH ITALIAN STAR – BERLUSCONI…

10.03.2018 –  EURO-ELITE with ECB CONTROL ( for Now ) ITALY SITUATION…

18.03.2018 – ITALY in Mainstream Media Focus…

27.03.2018 –  Is New Italy’s Government ” FINE “…

May – August 2018

29.05.2018 – ITALIAN ERUPTION – ETNA VOLCANO PATTERN…

30.05.2018  –  Italian Chessboard – All Financial Roads lead to Rome…

4.06.2018 –  ITALY ALIVE…for Now…!!!

5.06.2019 –  CONTE – ITALIAN MOTIVE…

20.08.2018 –  ITALIAN RISK OFF WAVE under TURKISH COVER…

25.08.2018  –  ITALIAN DEBT still under RISK…

September – November 2018 

11.09.2018  –  FTSE MIB – Italian Risk Omerta…

29.09.2018  –   ITALIAN RISK BOOMERANG…

29.09.2018  –  EUR/USD BLACK CLOUDS after FED & ITALY MOTIVES…

14.10.2018  –  ITALIAN RISK OFF STORY – MEDIA WAR with EU & ECB…

28.10.2018 –  ITALY ALIVE – S&P RATING MERCY…

12.11.2018 –  FTSE MIB – from Italian Omerta to Italian Flash…

19.11.2018 –  ITALIAN EYE of the EUROZONE CYCLONE …

May 2019

27.05.2019 –  FTSE MIB – Salvini Winning Factor…

with

ATA Following …

Special 

EUR/USD

19.01.2019 –  EUR/USD – F/X VERDUN…

10.03.2019 –  EUR/USD – Super Mario – Super Dove…

12.05.2019 –  EUR/USD – Fibonacci Retracement 1.12 – “No Pasarán”…

26.05.2019 – EUR/USD – European Political New Arrangement Risk…

 

 

 

ITALIAN ASSETS Master Motives

EU Triggers Disciplinary Process to ITALY over Public Debt

Italian Debt – ‘Snowball’ Effect Risk  

Italian GDP RISK OFF  Factor Q1 2019 Y/Y  -0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

 

 

First…ATA from  19.11.2018

” Present Active Key Levels :

EUR/USD –  1.12 ,  1.13 – 1.1350   &  1.14   vs  1.1430 – 50  &  1.15 

10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD –  3.40 – 3.50  vs  3.60  &  3.80  ( 3.7830 – Last Max )

FTSE Italia All Share Banks –  7500 – 7800  & 7900  vs  8000  

FTSE MIB –   18.000  – 18500  &   18.800   vs  19.000 – 19.500  &  20.000

…

Still Look carefully at  Main Positive Divergences

between

First

Mainstream Media Italy News Negative Trend

with

Present Silence Waiting for…

Final  ITALIAN BUDGET with DEFICIT Level 

vs

Market  Italian Assets Trend   ”

&

ATA Tweets  ex ante & chronological…

First

ATA Tweets ex ante…

ITALY RATING Verdict

by

S&P

Italy BBB/A-2 Ratings Affirmed

but

Outlook Negative

DXY – Focus on Key Level 98

Key Levels (EOW)

EUR/USD 1.11 vs 1.12 (1.1154)

DXY Index 98 (98.05)

GOLD Spot 1280-1300 USD (1286)

remember

Most Important Final SM Reaction-EOM-April pic.twitter.com/hkG017YbpH

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 27, 2019

ITALY RATING Verdict Smart Money Move

FTSE MIB Index >21.500 (21674)

10Y Bond Yield > 2.50% (2.578%)

EUR/USD in 1.1150 (1.1155)

DXY in 97.50 – 98 Zone (97.75)-Jun Fut

GOLD 1280-1300 USD (1284)-Jun Fut

Most Important Final SM Reaction-EOM-April pic.twitter.com/idMEYiYKPk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 29, 2019

ITALIAN GDP

1Q

Y/Y 0.10% (est -0.10% ; prev 0.00%)

Q/Q 0.20% (est 0.10% ; prev -0.10%)

–

EURO still Intraday > Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1208)

DXY < 97.50 (97.35) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1286)-Jun Fut

–

Most Important SM Reaction -H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/kUS5P7PfwY

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) April 30, 2019

ITALY Macro Factor

Italy’s Istat Leading Indicator Declines in April
–
Less Than In Previous Months

but

EURO Shot Down under Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.12 (1.1193)

DXY up from 97 Zone (97.30) -Jun Fut

GOLD stil in 1280 Zone (1282)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/tY1iScFsye

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 7, 2019

EU Cuts GDP Forecast 2019 – Warning of Euro-Area Risks

Eurozone to 1.20%

German to 0.5%

Italy to 0.1%

EURO Shot Down more under Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD < 1.12 (1.1185)

DXY in 97.50 Zone (97.40) -Jun Fut

GOLD stil in 1280 Zone (1281)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/tEKTWo40iO

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 7, 2019

Italy Industrial Production

March

Y/Y -1.4% (est -0.8%, prev 0.9%)

M/M -0.9% (est -0.8%, prev 0.8%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1223)

DXY in 97 (97.18) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/P9Nsa5Cgyo

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Italy Retail Sales

March
Y/Y -3.3% (est 1.0%, prev 0.9%)
M/M -0.3% (est 0.1%, prev 0.1%)

but

No EURO Falling

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1231)

DXY in 97 (97.13) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1280 (1285)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/xsA8UdND0v

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 10, 2019

Premier Salvini Verbal Strike

Italy will break the 3% Budget Deficit
&
Debt-to-GDP go Higher if needed

It 10Y B Yield 2.748

No EURO Falls – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.12 (1.1213)

DXY in 97 (97.27) -Jun Fut

GOLD Test 1300 (1299)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/FDOdB3xQsn

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 15, 2019

New Italian PM Salvini EURO Risk Off Verbal Strike

Let’s Remove, Let’s Loosen EU Budget Rules…!!!

but

No EURO Dynamic Shot Down < 1.1150 – Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD > 1.1150 (1.1163)

DXY < 98 (97.77) -Jun Fut

GOLD < 1280 (1276)-Jun Fut

Focus on H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/OqaQd1oShf

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 20, 2019

ITALY – Salvini New Verbal Strike

Totally Re-Discuss Old & Outdated EU Fiscal Rules

If EU tells Gvt to Make Cuts He Will Say No

EURO still < Master Key Level 1.12 (1.1195)

vs

DXY > 97.50 (97.57)

&

GOLD in 1285 (1285)

Most Important Final SM Reaction- H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/3gwB7LrIwx

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 27, 2019

ITALY ERROR…

Italy 10-Year Bond Yield 2.71%

FTSE MIB 20,363.13 -0.06%

EURO still < Master Key Level 1.12 (1.1190)

vs

DXY > 97.50 (97.63)

&

GOLD < 1285 (1284)

Most Important Final SM Reaction-H1-H4-EOD-EOW pic.twitter.com/ce23qArKl0

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 27, 2019

Italian GDP Factor

Q1 2019 Y/Y -0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

but

No EURO Shot Down vs still < Master Key Level 1.12

EUR/USD in 1.1150 (1.1148)

DXY > 98 (97.90) -Jun Fut

GOLD > 1290 (1294)-Jun Fut

Focus H1-H4-EOD-EOW-EOM pic.twitter.com/Y4dPISrtb2

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) May 31, 2019

EURO RISKS

EU Warns

Italian Debt – ‘Snowball’ Effect
Triggers Disciplinary Process Against Italy Over Public Debt

Greece May Not Meet Post-Bail Out Budget Target In 2019

EURO Shot Down form 1.13 Z ( 1.1270 )

DXY < 97 (96.97)

GOLD > 1340 (1343)

Focus H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/j5FzRc5svk

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 5, 2019

Italian Risk for EUROZONE & EURO still Active

the Day after

EU Triggers Disciplinary Process over Public Debt

Now Waiting for Italian News with ECB of course…

EUR/USD < 1.1250 ( 1.1235 )

DXY > 97 (97.17)

GOLD > 1340 (1341)

Importatnt SM Move H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/KAHCxud4gt

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY Factor News

Di Maio Italy will Negotiate with EU but Wants Change…!!!

Change…!!???

EUR/USD < 1.1250 ( 1.1235 )

DXY > 97 (97.17)

GOLD > 1340 (1341)

Importatnt SM Move H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/x8BjOdBS7Q

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY Motive by ECB Draghi

Italy’s Gvt Debt Reduction Plan Has to be Credible

ATA Conclusion

Words vs Real Debt ETNA…

EUR/USD still Down from Key Level 1.13

EUR/USD in 1.1250 – 1.13 Zone 1.1273 )

DXY in 97 (96.93)

GOLD in 1340 (1340)

Importatnt SM Move-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/74XAfBL7FT

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

ITALY EURO RISK OFF Motive still ON

even after

ECB Draghi Italy Risk on Words

DEBT ETNA vs ONLY WORDS

Italy 10Y Yield Up > 2.50% ( 2.52 )

EUR/USD Down < 1.1250 ( 1.1245 )

DXY > 97 (97.13)

GOLD < 1340 (1338)

Importatnt SM Move-H1-H4-EOD pic.twitter.com/AZsgLUVdlz

— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) June 6, 2019

 

 

Second…ATA Present Situation  – 6.06.2019 

EUR/USD 

10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD

FTSE Italia All Share Banks

FTSE MIB 

ATA MIND OVER MARKETS…

ATA MARKET MODEL : 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

 

First…Main Motives

Global & US – EU Slowdown  & Recession Risk

FED  vs ECB & BOJ Monetary Policy

&

TRUMP Trade War

Tariffs Trump Key Tweet 

New US Tariffs

New China Tariffs 

&

IRAN – AMERICAN STRIKE RISK

NORTH KOREA RISK Back 

with

Special New ITALIAN  Motives

above in this text…

Second…Market Technical  Patterns 

EUR/USD

Two Monthly Perspectives 

still dominating

Long Term Bear Trend 

with

Monthly MACD Sell Signal 

vs

F/X VERDUN 

19.01.2019 –  EUR/USD – F/X VERDUN…

&

F/X  EQUATOR  –  Key Level 1.15

7.10.2018 –EUR/USD – RETURN to F/X EQUATOR…

11.10.2018  –  EUR/USD – ACTIVE DEFENSE of F/X EQUATOR…

25.10.2018  –  EUR/USD under F/X EQUATOR waiting for ECB …

 

Both Sides of this Forex Battle 

can not break for good  other Side Resistance

Wave Up – 1.15 

vs

Wave Down  1.11 – 1.12 

 

 

10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD

H&S Top Pattern – Neckline 2.69%

vs

Bullish Trendline – Key Level 2.23%

 

 

FTSE Italia All Share Banks 

Testing Main Support Line – Key Level 7400

Now under  Key Level 7500 

Last W Pattern ( December 2018 — January 2019 )

FTSE MIB

First of All dominates

Long Term Triangle Pattern 

vs

Invert H&S – Neckline 23.500 Key Level 

&

2B  Pattern activated in 23.500 Key Level Zone 

( April 2018 )

vs

Support Zone – Lower Part of Triangle 

in 18.800  Key Level Zone 

 

 

ATA  ITALIAN Investment Conclusion 

Present Active Key Levels :

EUR/USD –   1.11 – 1.12   vs   1.13 – 1.1350  ,  1.14  &  1.15 

10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD –  2 20 – 2.23   vs  3.69 – 2.70 

FTSE Italia All Share Banks –  7400  vs  7500 – 8000  & 9000  

FTSE MIB –   18.800  – 20.000  vs  21.000-21.350  &  23.000 – 23.500

 

N – TIMES

Finally …

F/X  Maxim 

Most Important is  Final  Smart Money Reaction….

First…EOD-s 

Second…EOW-s

Final…EOM – Now June 

 

Remember

Chart is Worth more than Thousand Words…!!!

of course

Smart Money Reaction on  Last Italian Motives  

with

End of the June Close Prices 

will show

All Smart Money Truth Italian Intentions 

 

 

EUR/USD & 10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD Charts :

 

10.03.2018

 

 

18.05.2018

 

25.05.2018

29.05.2018

30.05.2018

&

2Y & 10Y ITALY BONDS YELD Charts  with  FIB ZONES :

29.05.2018

30.05.2018

 

FTSE Italia All Share Banks Chart  with  FIB ZONES :

30.05.2018

 

 

EUR/USD , 10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD  &  FTSE Italia All Share Banks  Charts :

 

20.08.2018

24.08.2018

 

FTSE  MIB  Monthly  Weekly & Daily Charts :

11.09.2018

 

EUR/USD , 10Y ITALY BONDS YIELD ,  FTSE Italia All Share Banks  &  FTSE MIB  Charts :

28.09.2018

12.10.2018

26.10.2018

19.11.2018

6.06.2019