ATA Continuation of…
10.06.2016 – GERMAN DEBT SECOND ( LAST…!!??? ) MARKET SHINING …
14.06.2016 – GERMAN GROUND ZERO – GLOBAL DEBT MANIA…
13.09.2016 – GERMAN 10Y BOND YIELD – RISING TO THE SURFACE…
24.07.2016 – GERMAN 10Y BOND YIELD – EUROPEAN RISK ON/OFF VECTOR…
28.10.2016 – GERMAN DEBT – ACTIVE ATA REVERSAL SCENARIO…
with
ATA Following …
13.01.2019 – DAX – GERMAN RISK OFF Wave…
&
10.03.2019 – EUR/USD – Super Mario – Super Dove…
with
30.03.2019 – JAPAN DEBT – JAPANIFICATION in ACTION…
&
31.03.2019 – SWISS DEBT – SNB NIRP POLICY…
German Debt Master Motives – EUROZONE Vectors :
ECB DRAGHI – Super Dovish – New TLTRO III
EUROZONE Recession Risk
Economic Cycle Peak Risk
BREXIT Risk Saga
Negative Macro Data
Italian Debt
Turkish Crisis
MACRON & SALVINI – Political Risk
France’s Yellow Vest Protests Risk
Catalonia Pro-Independence Protests Risk
&
European Parliament Election – May 2019
Master German Debt Global RISK OFF Question
What do Smart Money really know about the EUROZONE Risk…
that Espace again to German Debt with Negative Yield…!!???
First…
ATA Tweets ex ante…
Weidmann – ECB – Long Time to Normal Policy
&
German GDP Q/Q -0.2% – Mainstream Media – Germany on the brink of Recession…
vs
EUR/USD – No New Low – still above Key Level 1.12 ( Now 1.1268 ) pic.twitter.com/vFyVl1VXjs
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) November 14, 2018
PONZI GLOBAL DEBT " ECONOMY "
from 1920 Local Ponzi to Present 2018 – 2020 Global System Scheme…
CENTRAL BANKS with Goldman Sachs also… pic.twitter.com/p5nf67lrog
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) November 24, 2018
FRENCH GOTTERDAMMERUNG…
" BANK ELITE MAN " MACRON GOING DOWN….
History Repeats Itself…
Remember Words
" Brennt Paris ? … Is Paris burning ? " pic.twitter.com/1Lk7PAyMbc
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 1, 2018
" EURO SOJUZ PRINTING IS EVERYTHING… "
DRAGHI
like
QUEEN
" WHO WANT TO PRINT FOREVER…!!??? " pic.twitter.com/mOzQOipJiG
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 4, 2018
GERMAN POLITICAL EXCHANGE
EUROZONE GEOPOLITICAL CENTER Motive…
MERKEL ALLY KRAMP-KARRENBAUER ELECTED GERMAN CDU PARTY LEADER
but
EUR/USD
No EURO Victory Rally
still dominates Range 1.13 – 114
now 1.1390
Importatnt EOH4 , EOD & EOW pic.twitter.com/DaW0trfAbV
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 7, 2018
LEHMAN CRISIS 2008 was like Russia Revolution 1905
DEBT CRISIS will be like Russia Revolution 1917
Focus on First Fires from Aurora on Horizon…https://t.co/9NlaOK6Nat pic.twitter.com/ftupP11Ej7
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 8, 2018
EUROZONE DOUBLE IMPACT…
2019 Budget Deficit Macro Factor
Italy 2.4% vs France 3.5%
RISK OFF Motive for EURO
still Active Range 1.13 – 1.14
Now 1.1375
…from EURO Rain under EURO Plantage… pic.twitter.com/5y8Vqfwceq
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 11, 2018
ECB CENTRAL FACTOR in F/X Focus
END of ERA of EUROPEAN QE
but
RATES STAY at RECORD LOWS
REAL DOVISH TIGHTERING SCENARIO…
DRAGHI WORDS in First Place
EUR/USD stil Active Range 1.13 – 1.14
Now 1.1375
Most Important SM Final Reaction with EOD & EOW pic.twitter.com/DBBV3t37eJ
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 13, 2018
ECB Active Central Factor
ECB
Keeps All Rates Unchg at Record Lows
&
Confirms End QE – December 2018
and
Keeps Summer 2019 GuidanceEUR/USD No Shot Up
still in Last Range 1.13 – 1.14
Now 1.1370
Chart Candlestick – another H4 Doji…
Draghi Speech in F/X Focus pic.twitter.com/DQvmFdAN0m
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 13, 2018
DRAGHI Active Verbal Motive
Draghi Warns Of Downside Risks – "some accidents may happen"..!!!
Cuts GDP & Inflation Forecasts
EUR/USD still Doji H4 Candlestick
Active Range 1.13 1- 1.14
Now 1.1360
Important US SM Reaction with EOD & EOW… pic.twitter.com/XdaeU6wWHr
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 13, 2018
ECB DRAGHI CENTRAL Factor
EURO QE has been only DRIVER of RECOVERY in PARTS of EUROZONE
ATA Investment Conclusion
EURO SOJUZ of 21 Century
made by ECB
After End of QE…
Who will buy ITALY..SPAIN…PORTUGAL & FRANCE Debt…!!???
EUR/USD Move Down
Now 1.1338 pic.twitter.com/Yv8M96F4VL
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 13, 2018
EURO – ECB CENTRAL " PRINTING " SOCIALISM Factor
EURO QE has been only DRIVER of RECOVERY in PARTS of EUROZONE
Remember
Margaret Thatcher Predicted The Failure Of The Euro In Forbes, October, 1992… pic.twitter.com/0E8I0nkLEQ
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 13, 2018
2019 Recession Means 2020 Socialism…
sponosred by CENTRAL BANKS " PRINTING " – FED …ECB…BOJ
&
created
First EURO-SOJUZ…
Second GLOBAL SOJUZ…
with
SOJUZ SLOGAN
" PRINTING IS EVERYTHING "https://t.co/shpY9RYinM
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) December 22, 2018
ECB MINUTES Central Motive
RISKS are ROTATING in UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
F/X SM Reaction
No EURO Wave Up
DXY < 95 ( 94.88 )
EUR/USD > F/X EQUATOR 1.15 ( 1.1533 )
GBP/USD < 1.28 ( 1.2735 )
Remember
USD Wave Down need Today Confirmation ( EOD ) pic.twitter.com/32p6uEoUZE
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 10, 2019
FED VS ECB
Most Important is Final Smart Money Reaction ( EOD & EOW )
Master Key Levels
DXY – 95
EUR/USD – 1.15
Now
95.13
1.1495 pic.twitter.com/4ZUFhKuR6V
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 10, 2019
EUROZONE PMI RISK OFF Factor
EUROZONE PMI Composite fell & is now the Weakest since Summer of 2013…!!!
&
EUR/USD Shot Down
still under F/X Pressure…
Now 1.1355
EUR/USD – 1.15 is still < F/X EQUATOR…
Remember
Most Important is Final SM Reaction… pic.twitter.com/MygHkJaTwr
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 24, 2019
ECB – Draghi – Dovish & Macro Risk Off Factor
Monetary Policy Unchanged
&
No Change to Rates "At Least Through Summer "
EUR/USD after First Shot Down & Shot Up
Now Back Falling
1.1344
of course
Important EOD & EOW…
with
SM Final Reaction… pic.twitter.com/qOK6JNPS8M
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 24, 2019
FED vs ECB Monetary Policy AMBUSH …!!!
FED Dovish – Back to FED Time Game
Close ECB Way to Monetary Normalization
Master F/X Key Levels :
DXY 95
EUR/USD 1.15
Now Sharp Back to 95 & under 1.1485
1.15 – F/X EQUATOR
Focus on H4 & EOD pic.twitter.com/o58nI2Uud6
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 31, 2019
ECB – GOTTERDAMMERUNG…
Weidmann Speech
ECB Policy Normalization Process to Be SLOW
Likely to Take SEVERAL YEARS…!!!
EUR/USD – 1.15 – F/X EQUATOR
GOLD – 1300 USD
Wall Street DJIA 25.000
Most Important is Final Smart Money Reaction
Focus on January EOM pic.twitter.com/QH14wdcV0K
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) January 31, 2019
EUROZONE Macro & ECB Monetary Policy
from Italy to France even Germany
ATA Research Conclusion
Winter…Recession…is coming…!!!
ECB – No WAY OUT from QE Path
EUR/USD Testing 1.13 Zone – Now 1.1321
Key Support 1.13 Zone
Most Important is Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/CkReMHfkUM
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 8, 2019
EUROZONE Macro Risk Off Factor
Industrial Production Y/Y
Spain -6,2%
Italy -5,5%
Germany -3,9%
France -1,4%ATA Research Conclusion
EUROZONE & EURO Myth Fall without ECB QE
so
Next QE is comming?
Special Focus on EUR/USD Master Key Level 1.13 – Now 1.1323 pic.twitter.com/tLcymB9HUq
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 8, 2019
Central Banks No "Printing" – FED QT & ECB End of QE
vs
Last Macro Figures US & EUROZONE even GERMANY
ATA Research Conclusion
"PRINTING IS EVERYTHING"
Focus on Final SM Reaction
F/X Key Levels
DXY 96.50, EUR/USD 1.13, GBP/USD 1.28
Now 96.90, 1.1290, 1.2815 pic.twitter.com/EwmK9vHBSM
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 14, 2019
ECB VERBAL Risk Off Strike
ECB COEURE – NEW TLTRO POSSIBLE, WE ARE DISCUSSING IT
once again
ATA Research Conclusion
"PRINTING IS EVERYTHING"
F/X Dynamic Reaction
DXY Wave Up vs EUR/USD Wave Down
Now 97.20 , 1.1235
Focus on Final SM Reaction – EOW pic.twitter.com/lvS4kAGys7
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 15, 2019
ECB by Words…
NEW TLTRO POSSIBLE
creating
EUROUTOPIA = EUROZONE like EUROSOJUZ
connected to
the CENTRAL DRIP
remember
End of EU QE – December 2018
Master Key Levels DXY 97 , EUR/USD 1.13
Now 97.13, 1.1245
of course
Most Important Final SM Reaction – EOW pic.twitter.com/JmqBtVuZe9
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 15, 2019
FITCH – EUROZONE – ECB
FITCH RATINGS
EUROZONE 2019 GROWTH FORECAST CUT TO 1%;
ECB COULD RESTART QE
Fitch Confirmation of ATA Research Conclusion
EUROZONE must be connected to CENTRAL DRIP
MKL : DXY 97, EUR/USD 1.13
Now 96.88, 1.1278
Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/OpBUFqrThw
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 15, 2019
Future Aswer to EUROZONE & EUROPEAN UNION
from SOVIET UNION Past…
Aswer is Clear…
special when you look at
Italian & France Economy…
with
Debt Mountains… pic.twitter.com/Dt2VDWpcEO
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 15, 2019
ECB Minutes
Plans Swift Analysis of TLTRO, Warns against Hasty Decision
Euro Zone Growth could be Below Potential for Several Quarters
No Normalization on Euro Horizon
No EURO Fall
EUR/USD in 1.1350 (1.1355)
DXY < 96.50 Zone (96.30)
GOLD < 1340 USD Zone (1338) pic.twitter.com/cmUx96cEnh
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 21, 2019
ECB Minutes
ATA Investment Conclusion
No ECB Normalization on Horizon
but
Now No EURO Wave Down – still F/X Constans
EUR/USD in 1.1350 (1.1350)
DXY < 96.50 (96.33)
GOLD < 1340 USD (1337)
remember
Most Important is Final Smart Money Reaction – H4, EOD & EOW pic.twitter.com/WShex2X2jH
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 21, 2019
Moody's Confirmation of ATA ECB No Normalization
Moody's – ECB likely to Renew TLTRO Funding Program, Highlighting Funding Weaknesses in Some Countries
but still
No EURO Fall – F/X Constans
EUR/USD in 1.1350 (1.1350)
DXY < 96.50 (96.31)
GOLD < 1340 USD (1337) pic.twitter.com/NAIJXAVNZJ
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 21, 2019
ITALIAN DEBT-FOREVER DEBTOR
Focus on Key Levels
EUR/USD 1.13 vs 1.15 (1.1383)
Italy 10Y Bond Yield 2.70% vs 3.00% (2.75)
&
GOLD 1300 vs 1350 USD (1328)
Italian Question
Who will buy Italy Debt
except ECB, Italy Zombi Banks ???
remember
Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/lhQle8JzcD
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) February 27, 2019
KARL MARX NOT DEAD…
but this time is
CENTRAL BANKS MARX IDEAS
in
" Pseudo-Capitalism " Action…
Saving the System…
Special Focus on World Bond Yields in Present Debt Era
Financial Decade after Lehman Panic…https://t.co/9NlaOK6Nat pic.twitter.com/bsuGEUYcw1
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 2, 2019
GERMANY GROWTH Risk Off Factor
OECD – Germany Economic Growth Off from 1.6% to 0.7% 2019 & 1.1% 2020
USD still on the Rising Wave
EUR/USD Testing 1.13 (1.1303)
DXY Testing 97.00 Zone (96.85)
GOLD < 1300 (1286)
Most Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/qyUj1IyQy3
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 6, 2019
EUROZONE GROWTH Risk Off Factor
OECD – Eurozone Economic Growth Off from 1.8% to 1% 2019 & 1.2% 2020
USD still on the Rising Wave
EUR/USD Testing 1.13 (1.1303)
DXY Testing 97.00 Zone (96.85)
GOLD < 1300 (1286)
Most Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/aKDoVNpPzV
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 6, 2019
ECB – NEW TLTRO Scenario
ECB Meeting Tomorrow
"No Print…No Growth"
" EURO PRINTING " – Central Support for USD
EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1300)
GBP/USD < 1.3150 (1.3133)
DXY Testing 97.00 Zone (96.88)
GOLD < 1300 (1286)
Important Final SM Reaction – H4, EOD & EOW pic.twitter.com/JG6qIyFUeo
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 6, 2019
ECB Meeting Central Factor
Draghi Words – New TLTRO Scenario n F/X Focus
Most Important Final SM Reaction – H4, EOD & EOW
Now dominating F/X Waiting for ECB
EUR/USD in 1.13 (1.1305)
GBP/USD > 1.3150 (1.3170)
DXY in 97.00 Zone (96.85)
GOLD < 1300 (1285) pic.twitter.com/k0W1XF62hX
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 7, 2019
ECB Super Dovish Verdict
New TLTRO III – Two Year TLTROs Starts in September
Rates Unchanged
" EUROPRINTING is EVERYTHING "
EURO Shot Down
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1275)
DXY > 97.00 (97.05)
GOLD < 1300 (1287)
Now Time for Draghi Words
Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/271ZbDFk8F
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 7, 2019
ECB – Draghi Speech
Today's Decisions Unanimous…!!!
Master Question
What Scary ECB really knows right Now…!!???
EURO still under Pressure
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1248)
DXY > 97.00 (97.23)
GOLD < 1300 (1283)
Most Important Final SM Reaction – H4, EOD & EOW pic.twitter.com/U2uhOT3G89
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 7, 2019
SMART MONEY AWAKENING
from
CENTRAL SOCIALISM " PRINTING DREAM "
after
ECB SUPER DOVISH…
in
MEGA DEBT ERA
European Stock Indexes & Wall Street Futures with EURO Down…
Most Important Final SM Reaction – H4, EOD & EOWhttps://t.co/9NlaOK6Nat pic.twitter.com/isMVVOVNyI
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 7, 2019
Master Key Question…after ECB Scary Move…
from Margin Call…
Is that the Music is about to Stop..!!???
Wall Street …DXY with EUR/USD – EOW
will answer this System Question
DJIA < 26000 (25400)
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1225)
DXY > 97.00 (97.35)
GOLD < 1300 (1286) pic.twitter.com/eovwf0aknk
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 7, 2019
GREECE " pOWER of EURO "
GDP of Greece
2008 $356 billion
vs
2018 $218 billion
Now EUR/USD on F/X Edge – Key Level 1.12 (1.1218) pic.twitter.com/v7labX2U2q
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 8, 2019
EUROZONE – "DARK ROOM " by ECB Draghi
after Years of European QE
before New TLTRO III
He is really Super " Printing " Mario
of course
Most Important Final SM Reaction – EOW-s & EOM
Now
EUR/USD > 1.1250 (1.1275)
DXY > 97.00 (97.03)
GOLD < 1300 (1297) pic.twitter.com/KXrQp2pl3b
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 12, 2019
Japanification in Eurozone
JPMorgan Cut EUR/USD 1Y Forecast to 1.17 from 1.20
EU Business & Rate Cycles -Japanification Path
EUR/USD still F/X VERDUN
EUR/USD > 1.13 vs < 1.15 – F/X EQUATOR (1.1310)
DXY < 97 (96.70)
GOLD > 1300 (1308)
Importatnt Final SM Move pic.twitter.com/qhtQI4R5WG
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 13, 2019
DOVISH CENTRAL RACE
FED ECB BoE BoJ BOC
Which Bank will be Most Dovish ?
&
Which Currency Wins ?
Remember
Most Important Final SM Reaction-EOM First March
DXY > 95 (95.35) – Jun Fut
EUR/USD > 1.14 (1.1425)
GBP/USD in 1.32 (1.3205)
GOLD in 1320 (1319) pic.twitter.com/wrmvYnn4SD
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 21, 2019
EUROZONE PMI – EURO APOCALYPTO
Eurozone Man 47.6 Serv 52.7
German Man 44.7 Serv 54.9
French Man 49.8 Serv 48.7
EURO Free Fall…
DXY > 96 (96.18) – Jun Fut
EUR/USD Test 1.13 (1.1308)
GOLD in 1310 (1311)
Most Important Final SM Reaction – EOW pic.twitter.com/ae4hkOy0ao
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 22, 2019
YELLEN WARNING
GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS DON'T HAVE ADEQUATE CRISIS TOOLS
ATA Conclusion
Clear True
after
ZIRP NIRP & QE
Most Important Final SM Reaction- EOM-March
DXY < 96 (95.98) – Jun Fut
EUR/USD > 1.13 (1.1318)
GBP/USD > 1.32 (1.3233)
GOLD > 1320 (1325) pic.twitter.com/lLsvlQdfjd
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 25, 2019
ECB – DRAGHI in VERBAL DOVISH ACTION…
Draghi Words
Negative Rates for Longer
&
Excess Liquidity to Increase
EURO Shot Down & Shot Up
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1275)
DXY > 96 (96.28) – Jun Fut
GOLD > 1320 (1321) – Jun Fut
Important Final SM Reaction – H4 & EOD pic.twitter.com/LZ9KZybNuP
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 27, 2019
GARTMAN WARNING
U.S will Enter `Quiet' Recession This Year
Best Place – Bonds vs Worst – Stocks
Gold in Euros – Trade Of The Year
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1275)
DXY > 96 (96.23) -Jun F
GOLD > 1320 (1322) -Jun F
Most Important Final Smart Money Reaction – EOM -March pic.twitter.com/I42JeBgHJZ
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 27, 2019
GERMAN DEBT WARNING
Germany sold 10Y Debt at Negtive Yield 1st time since 2016
Investors Pay to Lend Germany Money for 10Y Bonds
10Y GR Yield in -0.50% Zone (-0.048%)
EUR/USD < 1.13 (1.1278)
DXY > 96 (96.25) -Jun F
GOLD > 1320 (1323) -Jun F
Important Final SM Reaction pic.twitter.com/yzzGyhC6QM
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 27, 2019
German Debt Götterdämmerung
German Bond Yields Fall below Japan's…!!!
Great Risk Off Escape
DE -0.069 vs JP -0.067
EUR/USD in 1.1250 Zone (1.1251)
DXY in 96.50 Zone (96.44) -Jun F
GOLD < 1320 (1316) -Jun F
Important Final SM Reaction – EOM – First March pic.twitter.com/wqW6lQZpWJ
— Piotr Janiszewski (@ATAFIN) March 27, 2019
Second…
10Y GERMAN BOND YIELD – SECULAR SITUATION
ATA MARKET MODEL IN LONG TERM ACTION
First…Market Motives :
ECB DRAGHI – Super Dovish – New TLTRO III
EUROZONE Recession Risk
Economic Cycle Peak Risk
BREXIT Risk Saga
Negative Macro Data
Italian Debt
Turkish Crisis
MACRON & SALVINI – Political Risk
France’s Yellow Vest Protests Risk
Catalonia Pro-Independence Protests Risk
&
European Parliament Election – May 2019
Second…Market Technical Pattern :
Monthly View
first of all
Mega Long Term Downtrend
with
1 Year & 6 months Rising Correction
from 6.2016 -0.127% ; Low -0.170%
to 1.2018 0.697% ; High 0.707%
&
Present Falling Wave
EOM – March -0.068% ; Low -0.094%
with
back to MACD Monthly Sell Signal
ATA Investment Conclusion
10Y German Bond Yield EOM – March : – 0.068%
Special Focus on
Secular Trend Chart
with
German Debt Yield Master Low
Key Support Zone – 0.127% & – 0.17% from 6.2016 – 9.2016
Never Forget
Chart is More Important than 1000 Words…
10Y German Bond Yield Weekly & Monthly Charts :
24.07.2016 – Monthly , Weekly & Daily
13.09.2016 – Weekly
.png)
28.10.2016 – Weekly
29.03.2019 – EOM – March
ATA FINANCIAL RESEARCH 