TRY – TURKISH RATING DOUBLE IMPACT…

 

ATA Continuation of

16.07.2016 –  GLOBAL FLASH POINTS…from MILAN & NICEA to ISTANBUL…

23.07.2016  –  TURKISH ASSETS IN ATA FOCUS…

&

11.08.2018  –  TRY – TURKISH F/X SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION…

 

After…

TRY  Last RISK OFF Motives  :

Goldman Sachs Note –  depreciation in the lira to TL7.1 against the dollar “could largely erode banks’ excess capital”.

Financial Times Article – ECB – EU Banks Turkey Exposure – Danger Zone

ERDOGAN Speech below any criticism

Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak Speech below any criticism

TRUMP New US Sanctions 

 

vs

 

TRY  Last RISK ON Motives : 

&

Verbal QATAR Financial Help  (   Declaration – 15 billions USD ) 

 

Now…

on  TURKISH LIRA Investment Horizon  we can see  New RISK OFF Motive…

Last Night…

RATING DOUBLE IMPACT…!!!

S&P & Moody’s  cut  Turkey Rating 

S&P cuts Turkey Rating  deeper  into Junk Territory

 

turkey

 

Now let’s back to  ATA Model …

ATA MIND OVER MARKES

ATA MARKET MODEL : 

First…Market Motive…

Second…Market Technical  Pattern…

 

Present  TURKISH LIRA   Situation 

New Motives  –  RATING DOUBLE IMPACT

S&P & Moody’s  cut  Turkey Rating

with

New US Sanctions Risk 

US Pastor Case

&

Technical  Pattern

Now – after  PANIC PHASE  &  Last Week TRY RISK ON Wave

still  Looking  for  Real Chart Pattern

 

 

Present   USD/TRY  depends on…

Monday  Smart Money Reaction  to  Turkey Ratings  Downgrade Factor

 

ATA from 11.08.2018 

” if   US – TRUMP  has  Plan to Crack TURKISH CURRENCY & ECONOMY 

next week shows Next  US STRIKES… ” 

and here we are…

Turkey Ratings  Downgrade Factor

 

Remember

 US Pastor still isn’t free…

&

ERDOGAN doesn’t want  IMF Financial Help…

meanwhile…

Turkish  Debt  still  rising & rising….

turkey total debt

 

 

ATA Investment Conclusion :

ONLY BIG  RISK ON FACTOR on Turkish Chessboard 

can  stop & clean F/X Situation…

 

Special Focus on  New  Real & Verbal Impulses  from  US vs TURKEY  

&

SMART MONEY  Next  Week Reaction at Present Active Ratings Motive

 

Present Active Key Levels are 

All Time

MAX  7.23  Zone ( 13.08.2018 ) 

vs

Friday Close  6.017  Zone

Last week Low  5.66  Zone

with

Mega Candlestick with Long Upper  Shadow  ( Monthly Chart ) 

&

FIB RET  – 50%  (   Daily Chart  )

 

 

USD/TRY  Monthly , Weekly  &  Daily  Charts :

 

10.08.2018

try m

try wtry d

 

17.08.2018

USD-TRY-M

USD-TRY-W

USD-TRY-D

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